topic Re: THE ELECTION POLLS in Community Spirit

THE ELECTION POLLS

nero_bolt — Sun, 11 Aug 2013 00:11:21 GMT

All in one place

The polls are not good for Labor

ReachTEL: 53-47 to Coalition

http://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-national-poll-10august13

Question 2: from reachtel

Which of the following do you think would make the better Prime Minister?

RUDD 46.8% Abbott 53.2

Galaxy 51-49

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2013/08/10/reachtel-53-47-to-coalition/

Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition; Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition in Queensland

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2013/08/09/nielsen-52-48-to-coalition-4/

and the betting odds are:

TAB $1.22 Libs to $4.25 Labor

Sportsbet $1.19 Libs to $4.80 Labor

Sportingbet $1.14 libs to $5.75 Labor

Not looking good for the labor diehards and for labor.

The Rudd experiment is a failure just like the man

Re: THE ELECTION POLLS

silverfaun — Sun, 11 Aug 2013 01:08:19 GMT

The Ruddslide is happening, the wheels are falling off with candidates being replaced & sacked. The chaotic Rudd is getting desperate running a dishonest scare campaign & has bee running negative from day one even though he wants everybody else to stop it.

Abbott has kept himself above all this while with dignity & calmness while the frenetic Rudd selfies twaddle & crushing toddlers hand & holding up jars of vegemite lying to voters with a disgraceful scare campaign, he must be stopped from doing this.

I thought I was in a parallel universe when I listened to Chris Bowen of failed immigration minister fame, rattle on for long minutes running a scare on Abbot, verballing & fantasizing & Cassidy let him go on & on.

The polls couldn't be worse with 1 in 5 Australians saying Rudds a phoney, but we already knew this, Rudds just hoping we'll forget that, put it into the Forgettery. The better PM numbers this morning has Rudd sliding.

That old saying "You can fool some of the people some of the time but you can't fool all of the people all of the time" is apt at this stage of the campaign.

He's hoping to slither into office on a wave of amnesia, he never mentions the past, he knows his record is all smoke & mirrors & the labor debt is staggering, they are spending millions by the day & it's all borrowed money.

Re: THE ELECTION POLLS

silverfaun — Sun, 11 Aug 2013 03:44:36 GMT

We will see ALL polls reflecting a Rudd annihilation but the media luvvies will still support him.

Re: THE ELECTION POLLS

newstart2380 — Sun, 11 Aug 2013 06:38:29 GMT

Maybe a good spread of Vegimite might fix KRudd's campaign but that may be seen as racist (for those who don't get it black and white)

I watched Bolt for the very first time on 10 this morning whilst jogging at the gym (sore knee so can't road run) and was very impressed even tho he is very biased. The poor Labor guy who was JGs former advisor was completely at a loss for explanations when asked about the cost of vegimite rising by 54C if the NLP won office, he did not but almost admitted it was propaganda.

If ALL parties just stopped the C - - P and told the truth we might have some faith in what they say.

Re: THE ELECTION POLLS

topsidesoul — Sun, 11 Aug 2013 08:49:17 GMT

@silverfaun wrote:
We will see ALL polls reflecting a Rudd annihilation but the media luvvies will still support him.

That is wierd because front pages are calling it an annihilation,Rudd's support is falling etc etc. If they were luvvies that information would be pushed towards the back as it is bad news and they would need to protect him.

Re: THE ELECTION POLLS

nero_bolt — Sun, 11 Aug 2013 22:22:39 GMT

Newspoll: Labor still behind, 48 to 52.

No big change in Newspoll - but no sign of hope for Labor:

According to the latest Newspoll, conducted exclusively for The Australian on the weekend, the Coalition’s primary vote support of 46 per cent, up two percentage points in the past week, is at a three-month high. Labor’s 35 per cent, down two points since the beginning of the formal campaign last week, is back to where it was when Mr Rudd removed Julia Gillard as leader…

Based on preference flows at the 2010 election, the two-party-preferred vote is steady on a winning lead for the Coalition of 52 per cent to Labor’s 48 per cent.

Re: THE ELECTION POLLS

silverfaun — Sun, 11 Aug 2013 22:45:51 GMT

Rudd lied last night, he waffled & was caught out on many occasions. He cheated with notes as well.

He BLAMED Australians for HIS failures on the unpicking of the border policies that worked.

He lost big time because he was seen by many as a liar & a blusterer.

He will never again hold the respected office of PM of this country. He has no dignity or sincerity. He looked sick, will he pull a sickie?

Every poll across the country has no good news for Rudd.

Re: THE ELECTION POLLS

lakeland27 — Mon, 12 Aug 2013 00:04:45 GMT

abbott had notes too. there are pictures to prove it. i don't know who said he didn't, but thats not unexpected. .. like last week, NW put up a reach tel poll saying beattie's selction was doomed or suchlike .. by 4 in the afternoon mind. which proves that one a beat-up. there simply wasn't time..

Re: THE ELECTION POLLS

nero_bolt — Mon, 12 Aug 2013 00:10:18 GMT

@lakeland27 wrote:
abbott had notes too. there are pictures to prove it. i don't know who said he didn't, but thats not unexpected. .. like last week, NW put up a reach tel poll saying beattie's selction was doomed or suchlike .. by 4 in the afternoon mind. which proves that one a beat-up. there simply wasn't time..

Abbott had a PEN and PAPER to take notes and that was allowed..

Prove otherwise LL as RUDD CHEATED Abbott DIDNT........

"According to the rules signed off by both parties and issued by the National Press Club on Friday, both Mr Abbott and Mr Rudd were prohibited from having pre-prepared paperwork.

"The leaders may have a pen and paper on the lectern and no other documentation or props,'' the rules state"

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/election-debate-kevin-rudd-accused-of-cheating-after-using-notes-during-debate/story-fni0cx12-1226695279579

Re: THE ELECTION POLLS

monman12 — Mon, 12 Aug 2013 00:29:42 GMT

NW is correct there LL.

"Kevin Rudd has been accused of cheating during Sunday night's leaders' debate because he used notes when he spoke,"

''The Leaders may have a pen and paper on the lecturn [sic] and no other documentation or props.''

NW like yoursel I watch the betting odds as they are a fair non partisan indication of voting intentions, but in the previous federal 2 elections I have bet on the outcome (don't tell LL) and won, but ended up with hardly any fingernails having gambled on the ALP after they shoehorned Gillard into the PM position.

So this time I will be mugless.

Re: THE ELECTION POLLS

donnashuggy — Mon, 12 Aug 2013 01:06:14 GMT

I noticed him looking down at his notes and wondered what all the drama was.

Julia Gillard was amazing on many occasions not using notes at all.

Re: THE ELECTION POLLS

lakeland27 — Mon, 12 Aug 2013 01:21:01 GMT

well i saw papers.. he could have an implant prompting him for all we know. i dont believe the telegraph and i dont particularly care anyway... abbotts message is very simple .. anyone could remember it (diaz apart) from what i observed, nobody 'won' . that depends who a person would like to see 'win' . lets see who would win a genuine debate, not a stage managed piece of waffle like that.

the accusation that rudd would need to cheat is hilarious considering old stumble mumbles appallingly low standard generally. rudd took it too lightly if anything.

Re: THE ELECTION POLLS

freakiness — Mon, 12 Aug 2013 03:01:18 GMT

@lakeland27 wrote:
well i saw papers.. he could have an implant prompting him for all we know. i dont believe the telegraph and i dont particularly care anyway... abbotts message is very simple .. anyone could remember it (diaz apart) from what i observed, nobody 'won' . that depends who a person would like to see 'win' . lets see who would win a genuine debate, not a stage managed piece of waffle like that.
the accusation that rudd would need to cheat is hilarious considering old stumble mumbles appallingly low standard generally. rudd took it too lightly if anything.

It's looking more and more like the choice is between people that are planning for the future and people that are pining for the past.

I hear people whine about losing talents like Ferguson because they've been there forever. Imo, that's retaining dinosaurs for the sake of it. We need to be prepared for the future and develop industries accordingly. At the moment we seem to be held back by the return to the past type policies.

A surprise result would be good. Another minority government with more independents, in which people have to debate and compromise, with contributions from a more diverse range of people.

Re: THE ELECTION POLLS

nero_bolt — Thu, 15 Aug 2013 08:12:11 GMT

Not looking good for Labor as the odds are blowing right out now for them HUGE loss is coming for Labor....

Coalition $1.1 $1.12 $1.11

Labor $7.0 $6.0 $6.5

Re: THE ELECTION POLLS

nero_bolt — Thu, 15 Aug 2013 08:16:51 GMT

Labor to lose election by 22 seats, odds suggest

Labor won't have to stay up late on the evening of September 7 for the bad news of the electoral result, according to a new analysis of betting market odds.

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's party will lose the election by 22 seats, collecting 63 seats to the oppositions's 85, according to analysis done for The Australian Financial Review by statisticians Kaighin McColl and Leng Lee.

The analysis is based on betting data from August 11.

The number of seats Labor is expected to win dropped from 65 to 63 in the five days between August 6 and August 11.

Mr McColl notes that the ALP has now slid backwards twice since the analysis began.

“It is still early days, but the ALP has consistently been a long way behind according to the electorate-level betting data. What they've had going for them is momentum. That momentum appears to be slowing or reversing,” he said.

The analysis, which takes betting market data and subjects it to an algorithmic process known as Monte Carlo simulation in order to determine odds, predicts just two seats will be won by non-major parties.

Andrew Wilkie looks set to be returned in the Tasmanian seat of Denison (75 per cent chance), while Queenslanders in the seat of Kennedy will continue to back Bob Katter (84 per cent chance), the analysis suggests.

But the Greens are not wholly out of the race for the lower house. Labor is just a 54 per cent chance of winning the seat of Melbourne, leaving incumbent Adam Bandt in the hunt.

Meanwhile, a much-shared video showing Liberal candidate Jaymes Diaz unable to name the six points of the Coalition's plan to stop the boats has done him little damage.

The candidate has a 63 per cent chance of representing the seat of Greenway in the next Parliament, according to the analysis.

http://www.afr.com/p/national/labor_to_lose_election_by_seats_Ljq9EMxd1UY8iw0loctqeK

Read more: http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/labor-to-lose-by-22-seats-new-analysis-20130815-2rynj.html#ixzz2c1WR2SfS

Re: THE ELECTION POLLS

nero_bolt — Sat, 17 Aug 2013 23:10:19 GMT

Not looking good for Labor as the odds are blowing right out now for them HUGE loss is coming for Labor....

You almost have to feel a twinge of pity for the desperate fanatical labor voters on here, defend as much as they can but noting is going to stop the Australian public from turfing this poor excuse of a govt out of office.

Coalition $1.1 $1.11 $1.10

Labor $7.0 $6.50 $7.00

Galaxy: 52-48 to Coalition; ReachTEL Victorian marginals polling

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2013/08/17/galaxy-52-48-to-coalition/

Bandt facing defeat in prized seat, poll finds

The poll was taken on Thursday night, sampling the mood of 5231 people in eight hotly contested seats in NSW and Victoria. It showed Labor's chances of winning the election are fading, with Treasurer Chris Bowen's seat of McMahon, Darren Cheeseman's seat of Corangamite and Mike Symon's seat of Deakin among the casualties.

The ReachTEL poll shows:

■In the seat of Corangamite, Mr Cheeseman is behind Liberal candidate Sarah Henderson on a two-party preferred basis by 44-56 per cent.

■In the eastern suburban seat of Deakin, Mr Symon is behind the Liberals' Michael Sukkar 47-53 per cent.

■In the seat of Indi, where Liberal frontbencher Sophie Mirabella is under threat by independent candidate Cathy McGowan, Ms Mirabella is holding on, with 43.5 per cent of first preference votes compared with 23.3 per cent.

Realy is looking bad for the labor luvvies.... and labor.....

Re: THE ELECTION POLLS

nero_bolt — Sun, 18 Aug 2013 22:18:37 GMT

WIPE OUT TIME for LABOR

The polls are getting worse and worse

Labor plummets to 46-54 - and it could get much worse

So far Labor’s overall poll support has been relatively good under Kevin Rudd. The real problem has been in the marginal seats, where the Coalition has been much stronger.

But now Labor’s national vote is falling too, as the Rudd’s sugar hit fades fast:

VOTER support for Kevin Rudd has sunk to its lowest level on record, leaving Labor headed for a large election loss with Tony Abbott now virtually equal as preferred prime minister…

Labor’s primary vote, at 34 per cent, is now at its lowest level since Mr Rudd removed Julia Gillard as prime minister and the Coalition’s primary vote of 47 per cent is at its highest during the same time.

Primary support for the Greens dropped from 11 per cent to 9 per cent…

On a two-party-preferred basis, based on preference flows at the 2010 election, Labor’s support has dropped two percentage points, to 46 per cent, and the Coalition’s support has risen to 54 per cent.

And I think it could get even worse for Labor over the next three weeks. Nothing in Rudd’s campaign suggests he has any petrol left. He has no more fresh policies, he has outstayed his welcome, his energy is down and Abbott has turned Labor’s fear campaign against it, characterising it correctly and successfully as desperation.

This could become a complete disaster.

Rudd is a man whose success has been built on portraying him as sunny, confident and completely on top of all the details. But now the screen has been pulled to reveal the real Wizard of Aus - frazzled, uncertain and rabbiting on about what he barely knows what while standing on a smoking ruin.

My tip: Abbott to win a majority of 30. That means Rudd’s return would have saved Labor maybe a dozen seats, making it worth the gamble - just.

But two things: Rudd was shockingly underprepared for a return he plotted for over three years. Even I’ve been surprised and his supporters must be shocked. Where are the policies? Where is this “new” Rudd they were promised?

Second, Rudd has - as I warned three weeks ago - actually made it harder for Labor to win the election after this one.

He’s trashed any moral standing the party still had over boat people and climate change in particular by proposing a harsh (if unworkable) PNG solution and promising (albeit falsely) to “terminate” the carbon tax.

And a caveat: three weeks of campaigning could of course make my prediction look too hasty. But it’s more likely that Labor will perform worse than there is that it will perform better. It will get more desperate, and probably more divided.

Rudd does not seem healthy and is campaigning particularly badly. Many voters now still backing Labor had under Julia Gillard decided to vote Liberal - and may be easy to shift back to their earlier decision.

and the odds are getting worse and worse

Coalition $1.10 $1.09 $1.10

Labor $7.0 $7.25 $7.00

Re: THE ELECTION POLLS

nero_bolt — Sun, 25 Aug 2013 22:25:03 GMT

Not looking good for the labor diehards

Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2013/08/25/newspoll-53-47-to-coalition-5/

Nielsen: 53-47 to Coalition

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2013/08/23/nielsen-53-47-to-coalition-4/

LAST WEEK ODDS were

Coalition $1.10 $1.09 $1.10

Labor $7.0 $7.25 $7.00

This week its

The odds are getting worse and worse

Coalition $1.08 $1.07 $1.05

Labor $8.0 $8.00 $10.00 <<<<< WOW LOOK at that $10.00 from sportingbet and the other 2 are at $8.00 NOT looking good there for the labor fanatical

Re: THE ELECTION POLLS

izabsmiling — Sun, 25 Aug 2013 22:36:09 GMT

Questions about the Polls .... No1 who pays for them

,when do they call people (ie;business AND non business hours...and if non business hours are they nights people most likely to be out), sample sizes,is sample size always met,do they call people back ,is that non answered call counted ,do they mention second preferences,show preferred PM,other parties,do they call mobile phones as well as landlines and if so do they do that in equal numbers,do they show ages of those polled ...get a mixed range of ages ?

who pays for them ?

Re: THE ELECTION POLLS

fourandsixpants — Sun, 25 Aug 2013 22:42:30 GMT

yes indeed.....who pays for this conjured up carp?!!!

This whole election business is a farce, a waste of money etc.....besides, it's not so much about to whom you give your vote to but more of an issue re.to whom the PREFERENCES go to that will decide this election.

Whilst I'm here I'll also add- why the heck do we have 3 year terms in Federal Govt still??? Who can implement policies in 3 years???

I say make it 4-6 year terms....this way they will make a better success or really louse it up!! ....making the following election really easy to select candidates