topic Re: Vexed Vax Jabs Charted over Time in Database: Don't be k1oooless! in Community Spirit

Vexed Vax Jabs Charted over Time in Database: Don't be k1oooless!

k1ooo-slr-sales — Wed, 06 Oct 2021 00:26:41 GMT

I was going to title this topic COVID vaccination rates and opening up at 80% (by the numbers) . . . but went with the one suggested by countess on another thread.

Please note that I am not starting this thread for the discussion of COVID vaccination, making vaccination mandatory or the pros/cons of vaccination.

This thread is also not for posting about 'early stage treatments' for COVID. I may well report any such posts for being off-topic if they are made.

I won't be posting arguments for or against vaccination, just the numbers and percentages that will drive the easing of restrictions.

The intention of this thread is to provide an analysis of the figures that I haven't been able to find elsewhere. It is for me to post screengrabs of an Excel spreadsheet that shows the double dose percentages that will become crucial in opening up the country.

I will prepare a spoiler so that members can see how the spreadsheet numbers are calculated. The spoiler will also note the source I use for spreadsheet preparation.

If anyone notices any errors in my calculations or screengrabs then please let me know.

Re: Vexed Vax Jabs Charted over Time in Database: Don't be k1oooless!

k1ooo-slr-sales — Wed, 06 Oct 2021 00:32:35 GMT

Data for Tuesday 5th October (for population aged 16 and over)

What this spreadsheet shows is:

- even though NSW is running at 88.6% first vaccination, Australia without NSW is some 13 percentage points behind

- even though NSW is running at 67.6% double dose, Australia without NSW is some 15 percentage points behind

I use the "Charting the jab" ABC NEWS website for the numbers/percentages used in my spreadsheet preparation. Regardless of any anti-ABC left-wing media sentiment anyone may have you can't fault the data they include on this site.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-02/charting-australias-covid-vaccine-rollout/13197518

The website uses data for population aged 16 and over. This is what the Doherty modelling uses.

This screengrab shows the spreadsheet and the side calculations. I only post the section of the spreadsheet with cell borders as that is what is important.

I use the vaccination percentages and raw numbers to recalculate population figures each day. The relevant calculation is:

Polpulation = [Raw number X 100] / Percentage

Calculations for population in the spreadsheet:

- pop¹ is calculated from single dose data

- pop² is calculated from double dose data, and

- pop³ = average of pop¹ and pop²

The average is what appears in the screengrabs.

Using the average of the two calculations is more valid than choosing just one of the others. It does mean that my spreadsheet percentages may be slightly off the news site percentages . . . but within about 0.1 of 1%

The side calculations also act as a check for data entry errors as there is a calculation of [pop¹ - pop²] made. Don't be put off by the population differences being in the '000s as averaging the two minimises any error.

The calculated percentages in the spreadsheet that use my pop³ figure also act as a further checking mechanism because if they vary greatly from the reported percentages then I will have made a mistake when entering the data.

I will post a screengrab most nights to keep the information accurate.

Re: Vexed Vax Jabs Charted over Time in Database: Don't be k1oooless!

countessalmirena — Wed, 06 Oct 2021 01:21:58 GMT

That represents some very careful work. I appreciate what you are doing and I hope it’s appreciated by everyone on these boards.

Just as a quick aside, I’ve necessarily become a bit of an Excel formula poobah. Some of the formulae I use are quite twisty and complicated.

One of the increasing issues we are seeing now with vaccination percentages by state is that the state may be treated as a uniform block, while of course it is anything BUT uniform. It’s full of wibbly-wobbly jabby-wabby inequalities. That would be a topic for another even more complicated spreadsheet – but this one is helpful in pointing out the obvious that is often ignored: that the huge push to get doses in arms in NSW (esp. Greater Sydney) has significantly lifted the national percentage. Thus it skews them and goes some way towards explaining individual state responses to the question of opening up.

Re: Vexed Vax Jabs Charted over Time in Database: Don't be k1oooless!

springyzone — Wed, 06 Oct 2021 02:18:09 GMT

I've been following the stats for some time (since March last year).

Not so much on vaccination but more on numbers, but I was charting different countries as well.

For the last few months, the % rate for vaccinations has been showing and I have also started to record those.

A really good site is covidlive as you can look up the 1st and 2nd dose % rate for each state as well as for Aust overall. Plus it will show you the estimated date for reaching the milestones.

I am also a bit of a fan of bing covid tracker for charting US dose rates. They have been fairly stagnant for quite a while. I like to look at where Aust is in general too, with numbers. We've raced past quite a few countries in the last few weeks, unfortunately, but still not too bad in terms of actual numbers. I like to save screenshots. Not too sure what I am going to do with them all, mind you.😅

Re: Vexed Vax Jabs Charted over Time in Database: Don't be k1oooless!

k1ooo-slr-sales — Wed, 06 Oct 2021 02:30:24 GMT

the ‘Charting the jab’ ABC NEWS web page also shows projections for dates that states will reach the 70% and 80% vaccinations rates

Re: Vexed Vax Jabs Charted over Time in Database: Don't be k1oooless!

springyzone — Wed, 06 Oct 2021 03:13:18 GMT

Just going to upload some I saw and we'll see how they compare as I can't remember the dates offhand. Mind you, I suppose they are all guesswork to some extent.

Okay, that's saying Aust 70% second dose by 23 Oct. pretty much the same.

Vic.

It is showing Vic as a couple of days behind to reach the 70% double dose milestone.

I'll include a 3rd screenshot which I thought was interesting but will make no other comment.

Re: Vexed Vax Jabs Charted over Time in Database: Don't be k1oooless!

k1ooo-slr-sales — Wed, 06 Oct 2021 04:27:18 GMT

- even though NSW is running at 89% first vaccination, Australia without NSW is some 13.5 percentage points behind

- even though NSW is running at 69% double dose, Australia without NSW is some 16 percentage points behind

Re: Vexed Vax Jabs Charted over Time in Database: Don't be k1oooless!

rogevibe — Wed, 06 Oct 2021 08:42:28 GMT

May I offer a site relating to Australian post jab statistics to supplement this informative post subject matter

Our purpose | AusVaxSafety

Re: Vexed Vax Jabs Charted over Time in Database: Don't be k1oooless!

k1ooo-slr-sales — Thu, 07 Oct 2021 04:55:51 GMT

firstly, I made a mistake in yesterday’s post. The correct information is:

- even though NSW is running at 89% first vaccination, Australia without NSW is some ~~13.5~~ 12.5 percentage points behind

- even though NSW is running at 89.3% first vaccination, Australia without NSW is some 12.3 percentage points behind

- even though NSW is running at 70.3% double dose, Australia without NSW is some 16.2 percentage points behind

Re: Vexed Vax Jabs Charted over Time in Database: Don't be k1oooless!

k1ooo-slr-sales — Fri, 08 Oct 2021 06:23:48 GMT

- even though NSW is running at 89.8% first vaccination, Australia without NSW is some 12.2 percentage points behind

- even though NSW is running at 71.5% double dose, Australia without NSW is some 16.5 percentage points behind

**just as an aside, this ABC News story relates to the rates of vaccination across NSW now that NSW has passed the 70% double vaccination level. They are forging ahead with their 70% easing plan even though much of the state is running below 70% double dose. Some areas are as low as 30% - 40% despite the state having an above 70% vaccination rate. The rates across Greater Sydney vary greatly as well.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-07/nsw-postcodes-left-behind-vaccination-targets/100514256

Re: Vexed Vax Jabs Charted over Time in Database: Don't be k1oooless!

countessalmirena — Fri, 08 Oct 2021 10:15:52 GMT

Perhaps I will be proved wrong… but I would have liked to see a less patchy 70% before some of these restrictions were eased. We’re in new territory here.

Re: Vexed Vax Jabs Charted over Time in Database: Don't be k1oooless!

domino-710 — Sat, 09 Oct 2021 04:23:33 GMT

Countess - it will become less patchy now Pfiser is again available.

Though considered part of Greater Sydney - all Pfiser was sent to the city - understandably so - that's where the real problem was - so unavailable here - and choice has played a part in which to get.

It's now available - and peeps are getting the jabs.

Re: Vexed Vax Jabs Charted over Time in Database: Don't be k1oooless!

k1ooo-slr-sales — Sat, 09 Oct 2021 06:44:04 GMT

- NSW 90.1% first vaccination, Australia without NSW is some 12 percentage points behind

- NSW 72.8% double dose, Australia without NSW is some 17 percentage points behind

Re: Vexed Vax Jabs Charted over Time in Database: Don't be k1oooless!

myoclon1cjerk — Sat, 09 Oct 2021 10:31:18 GMT

Figures schmiggers. Roughly one third of the population isn't included : 1-15 year olds. Take 12%-15% off those percentages and you're closer to the real numbers.

At least the ACT has included 12-15 y.o in their figures

Re: Vexed Vax Jabs Charted over Time in Database: Don't be k1oooless!

k1ooo-slr-sales — Sat, 09 Oct 2021 10:42:16 GMT

but decisions will be made based on aged 16+ . . . so it is worth posting these figures

Re: Vexed Vax Jabs Charted over Time in Database: Don't be k1oooless!

countessalmirena — Sat, 09 Oct 2021 10:54:23 GMT

I thought it might be interesting to add some of the VIC numbers here.

Vaccinations and case numbers in Victoria as of yesterday (8th October 2021), reported today:

Vaccination At least first dose	Vaccination Second dose	TOTAL vaccination doses currently in Victoria
85.19% (16+)	57.67% (16+)	4.61 million at least partially vaccinated (16+) 3.12 million fully vaccinated (16+)
62.27% (12+)	5.91 (12+)	192,180 at least partially vaccinated (12+) 18,232 fully vaccinated (12+)
NEW CASES over last 24 hours	No. of tests over last 24 hours	TOTAL CASES currently in Victoria
1,965	73,443	17,199
Lives lost over last 24 hours	Cases currently hospitalised	Cases currently in ICU
5 deaths	578 patients 65.3% not vaccinated 26.1% partially vaccinated 8.5% fully vaccinated	117 patients. 83 are on ventilators.

I hope and pray that as many as possible of the patients who are on ventilators will survive the hell of their current situation.

At present, about 1/5 of the patients who are hospitalised with COVID-19 end up in ICU.

Vaccination information sourced from health.gov.au

Re: Vexed Vax Jabs Charted over Time in Database: Don't be k1oooless!

rogevibe — Sat, 09 Oct 2021 11:11:52 GMT

re " NSW 90.1% first vaccination, Australia without NSW is some 12 percentage points behind "

and the rest of Australia 50% down on untimely deaths.....

Re: Vexed Vax Jabs Charted over Time in Database: Don't be k1oooless!

k1ooo-slr-sales — Sat, 09 Oct 2021 23:27:22 GMT

@myoclon1cjerk wrote:
Figures schmiggers. Roughly one third of the population isn't included : 1-15 year olds. Take 12%-15% off those percentages and you're closer to the real numbers.
At least the ACT has included 12-15 y.o in their figures

from the ABC News website “Charting the jab” page:

According to the national roadmap, Australia will move to the next phase of opening up when 70 per cent of the population aged 16 and older have had two doses of vaccine. This is the equivalent of 56.2 per cent of the total population.

The third phase will come into force when 80 per cent of the population aged 16 and older are fully vaccinated — the equivalent of 64.2 per cent of the total population.

Re: Vexed Vax Jabs Charted over Time in Database: Don't be k1oooless!

domino-710 — Sat, 09 Oct 2021 23:46:30 GMT

@rogevibe wrote:
re " NSW 90.1% first vaccination, Australia without NSW is some 12 percentage points behind "

and the rest of Australia 50% down on untimely deaths.....

I can't help wondering - on ' timely ' deaths.

Re: Vexed Vax Jabs Charted over Time in Database: Don't be k1oooless!

countessalmirena — Sun, 10 Oct 2021 08:11:56 GMT

Vaccinations and case numbers in Victoria as of yesterday (9th October 2021), reported today:

Vaccination At least first dose	Vaccination Second dose	TOTAL vaccination doses currently in Victoria
85.53% (16+)	58.62% (16+)	4,625,233 at least partially vaccinated (16+) 3,169,974 fully vaccinated (16+)
63.64% (12+)	7.32 (12+)	196,399 at least partially vaccinated (12+) 22,582 fully vaccinated (12+)
NEW CASES over last 24 hours	No. of tests over last 24 hours	TOTAL CASES currently in Victoria
1,890	73,443	18,342
Lives lost over last 24 hours	Cases currently hospitalised	Cases currently in ICU
5 deaths	609 patients Fewer than 7% were vaccinated	126 patients. 88 are on ventilators.

Vaccination information sourced from health.gov.au