topic Re: Labor on the rocks: 44 to 56 in Community Spirit

Labor on the rocks: 44 to 56

nero_bolt — Sun, 17 Feb 2013 12:23:39 GMT

The Coalition will be hoping Labor doesn’t now stampede to Kevin Rudd after tonight’s disastrous Nielsen Poll:

Labor’s support, which had climbed into the mid-30s, has now collapsed, plunging it back towards landslide-losing territory were an election held now.

Its primary vote stands at just 30 per cent, a dip of 5 points since the last survey in December and a mere 4 points above its nadir of 26 per cent in May 2012…

On a two-party-preferred basis, Labor’s support languishes at 45 per cent to 55 per cent for the Coalition, according to voter feedback on the direction of second preferences.

Based on preference flows from the 2010 election, the two-party split is 44/56 in favour of the Coalition - a swing towards the Coalition.

That’s the measure that counts, of course, but after repeating Labor spin so furiously for a year about the significance of Tony Abbott’s unpopularity, I’m sure we can expect the media to give us another forest of articles about Gillard this time being the truly unpopular one:

Crucially, in terms of Ms Gillard’s command of the Labor leadership, Mr Abbott has overtaken her in the preferred prime minister stakes with his support leaping by 9 percentage points to 49 per cent compared with Ms Gillard on 45 - down 5 points.

The pollster explains:

‘’I think the most likely thing is that the combined effect of Craig Thomson and Eddie Obeid created an atmosphere of crisis,’’ says Nielsen’s John Stirton.

And while Labor lost its opportunity, Tony Abbott took his. ‘’I think the results probably reflect Abbott’s change of approach,’’ becoming less aggressive and more positive, says Stirton. ‘’There have been far fewer shots of him on the evening news in his shrill, hectoring mode. He’s been more moderate and bipartisan – it took him a long time to learn, but the voters rather like that.’’

Unmentioned is that Gillard has proved catastrophically bad.

That election announcement. Those resignations just afterwards. That budget blowout. That mining tax. That broken promise of a surplus. Those boats. That shrillness. That....

http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/andrewbolt/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/rudderless_labor_on_the_rocks_44_to_56/

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/pms-poll-pain-abbott-and-rudd-more-popular-20130217-2elb7.html#ixzz2L9lfn0O4

Re: Labor on the rocks: 44 to 56

nero_bolt — Sun, 17 Feb 2013 22:09:42 GMT

I wonder when will Rudd make his move? 🙂

Re: Labor on the rocks: 44 to 56

freddie*rooster — Sun, 17 Feb 2013 22:26:41 GMT

I wonder when Malcolm will make his move?

Re: Labor on the rocks: 44 to 56

azureline** — Sun, 17 Feb 2013 22:46:58 GMT

mmm... both parties may have a change of leadership.....

Re: Labor on the rocks: 44 to 56

silverfaun — Sun, 17 Feb 2013 23:29:43 GMT

I can't make sense of the "change to Malcom comment" as Tony Abbot has trounced Gillard in popularity & driven the LNP to an election winning position.

He also has lifted his popularity with women whilst women are deserting Gillard, Ipso facto, why would they change a winning formula? or is it just another vain hope from the luvvies.

Even if they did go back to Turnbull (will never happen) will the luvies vote LNP?? I don't think so :^O

Re: Labor on the rocks: 44 to 56

topsidesoul — Sun, 17 Feb 2013 23:35:53 GMT

If the Nileson Poll is support of your party, a minister will talk it up as showing they are right and their opposition is wrong.

If the Poll shows you are loosing, a minister will publically say that you should not read into these polls as they aren't credible.

Moral of this story is OP spends too much time looking at polls.

Re: Labor on the rocks: 44 to 56

freddie*rooster — Sun, 17 Feb 2013 23:36:14 GMT

Oh yes of course you believe the rigged poll, but many don't. 😉

Re: Labor on the rocks: 44 to 56

izabsmiling — Sun, 17 Feb 2013 23:36:25 GMT

Even if they did go back to Turnbull (will never happen) will the luvies vote LNP?? I don't think so

Do you think reading here would encourage them to ?

Re: Labor on the rocks: 44 to 56

topsidesoul — Mon, 18 Feb 2013 00:05:01 GMT

Even if they did go back to Turnbull (will never happen) will the luvies vote LNP?? I don't think so

Do you think reading here would encourage them to ?

The vote was extremely close (Turnie lost by a single vote).

I do not see a challenge happening because Malcom has not been in the spotlight for months and the Labour party cannot even move to the middle.

Do you expect the Liberal party to move to the middle?

That being said, I would vote liberal if Malcom was leader.

I have read allot of what the gentlemen has to say, when he appeared on interviews he made his points with valid arguements I and believe it all comes from him., as opposed to Abbot who cannot be bothered to vote on bills much less read a press release from BHP.

Meanwhile expect the newspapers to feature Rudd on another hundred front pages 'trying to take the leadership'.

Re: Labor on the rocks: 44 to 56

azureline** — Mon, 18 Feb 2013 00:53:19 GMT

Personally, I would prtefer Malcolm as leader but.... I vote on policy and what my local member does, promises, fulfills......

Re: Labor on the rocks: 44 to 56

donnashuggy — Mon, 18 Feb 2013 04:02:53 GMT

I guess Mark Kenny isn't biased. fgs

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/opinion/columnists/mark-kenny

Re: Labor on the rocks: 44 to 56

nero_bolt — Mon, 18 Feb 2013 06:34:11 GMT

Simon Crean admits opinion poll blow to Julia Gillard is a 'wake-up call'

CABINET minister Simon Crean says a new opinion poll showing Tony Abbott ahead of Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister is a "wake-up call" for the party.

Less than a week after he dined with Kevin Rudd and his key caucus supporters, Mr Crean declared today's Nielsen poll could not be ignored.

“It's a wake-up call isn't it? You can't gild the lily,” he told radio station 2UE.

Mr Crean said the result reflected damaging coverage of Labor's “internals”, and the plight of the party in NSW.

Communications Minister Stephen Conroy said the government was paying the price for MPs not focusing on policy.

“There's a lot of backgrounding,a lot of careless chatter going on,” Senator Conroy told reporters in Tasmania.

“If we spend our time talking about ourselves ... we will ultimately end up paying the price in the polls as we have done today.”

Their assessments were in contrast to that of Julia Gillard and her key union backer, Paul Howes.

Ms Gillard shrugged off the result, saying she was focused on being Prime Minister.

“If I spent time worrying about them and commentating on opinion polls then I wouldn't have the time to get my job done,” she told the Seven Network.

Mr Howes, the self-confessed “faceless man”, said he regretted his past obsession with opinion polls.

“I regret that I was one of the people that used to engage in this constant useless chatter on various opinion and chat shows around the country,' he told Sky News.

“I am sick of it, I am not doing it any more.”

Labor's two-party preferred vote in the Nielsen poll trails the Coalition's 44 per cent to 56 per cent - a result which mirrors last week's Newspoll.

More here-----

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/julia-gillard-pm-to-let-opinion-poll-blow-wash-through/story-fn59niix-1226580102921

Re: Labor on the rocks: 44 to 56

newstart2380 — Mon, 18 Feb 2013 08:04:45 GMT

But according to both parties " we don't take any notice of opinion polls" like hell they don't as I am sure the first morning coffee is swallowed looking at the opinion polls.

Re: Labor on the rocks: 44 to 56

nero_bolt — Tue, 19 Feb 2013 01:13:36 GMT

Joe Hilderbrand's 10 reasons to cryogenically freeze Kevin Rudd

WHILE Kevin Rudd said he wanted the leadership debate "frozen cryogenically", Joe Hilderbrand debated why the ex-PM should be frozen.

1: Cryonics was recently recognised as the official science of choice for evil geniuses.

2: If Rudd is locked in a freezer there is less chance of him popping up on television every time the Prime Minister leaves the country.

3: Unlike other unlucky cryonic subjects Kevin Rudd has already had the plug pulled on him.

4: It is likely to be several decades before the ALP finally gets a positive poll result.

5: Cryonics is widely considered to be bogus quackery but at least has more scientific credibility than the Coalition's climate action plan.

6: Rudd would be stuck in temperatures of minus 150C but it would still be warmer than the reception he gets in caucus.

7: Walt Disney was said to have been cryogenically frozen (like the economy) but in fact he was dead, buried and cremated (like WorkChoices).

8: Being rendered unconscious in a cold dark place is pretty much the same as living in Canberra.

9: The whole point of cryonics is that the subject is later resurrected.

10: It's revenue neutral.