Yes, I agree; tracking can sometimes be really hit and miss. At times it says 'in transit' on my AP Dashboard and then when you click into the parcel it was delivered days previously. Then I have a few parcels that were never 'delivered' in the eBay system or AP's system, which appears to happen in more rural areas when contractors may be used. Like you, most of the time, the buyer never reaches out, so I presume they did indeed receive their item. 

Only once did I have a buyer claim that 'tracking is showing not delivered', yes that is correct, not 'my parcel has not arrived'. I replied to say that on occasions the tracking may be delayed in updating in the system, which it subsequently did. So that was certainly a buyer trying it on.  

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@maison_full wrote:

Good news: the buyer got back in touch with me and returned the refund. Lesson learned: never use Sendle.

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That is fantastic news!!! I actually meant to put in my reply that your chances of getting the refund back was near zero. That is really awesome that you got an honest buyer. I'm so happy for you! What a fantastic outcome.

Don't use Sendle 😄