I think the writing was on the wall the moment Paypal and eBay announced their split. Paypal is, and has been an extremely profitable company and had been propping up eBay's dwindling profits for at least a couple of years and it was really starting to hurt Paypal's bottom line as well.

Once Paypal are out of the equation, and the truth about the endemic internal corruption becomes common knowledge, eBay will crash and burn at a much faster rate than it is already. At eBay's current rate of deterioration, I can't see it surviving much beyond the 2 to 3 years that you suggest above.

No company can survive the amount of greed, mismanagement and corruption that has been endemic in the top levels of eBay's management for the past several years, and even the faithful are now turning their backs on eBay in sheer disgust, while buyers and sellers are deserting the place in their ever-increasing droves (myself included).