The short answer is that ebay almost always sides with the buyer. If the tracking does not show delivered, then you will lose the case.

Not much you can do now, but If the tracking changes to delivered you could possibly win an appeal.

If you get any defects, you might be able to convince someone to remove it or them by using the option in help to have ebay call you (the customer service people who make calls seem to have more power to make changes).

You could also try contacting auspost about a lost parcel if the tracking is stalled. You might even be able to get your money back from them if it is lost.