I read it that the buyer did not change the address, that somebody took the card out of their letterbox and tried to rearrange delivery to a different address but then decided to go and collect the parcel in person.

I forgot to add that I would also go to the police and report the theft if I were the buyer and that wouls also be compelling evidence for Paypal.

If it is in the courier companies policies that id should be checked on collection then they should be paying back the seller IMO