$16b better off under Turnbull plan

nero_bolt
Community Member

The Abbott government's pared-back broadband plan is three times more cost effective than Labor's ambitious scheme and would leave Australians $16 billion better off, according to the first independent cost-benefit analysis of the national broadband network.

 

In a scathing verdict on the Rudd and Gillard governments' plan to introduce fibre directly to 93 per cent of premises, the cost benefit analysis finds the policy is so expensive it would barely leave the community any better off in net terms than if broadband investment remained frozen at present levels.

 

The much-anticipated report finds households and businesses will benefit from quicker downloads but the much-vaunted societal benefits of fast broadband – such as improvements to health and education services – will probably be extremely limited.

 

The cost benefit analysis panel, led by former Victorian Treasury head Michael Vertigan, modelled the estimated costs and benefits of expanded broadband access from 2015 to 2040.

 

 

Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull, who commissioned the analysis, will use the findings to justify his decision to pursue a "multi-technology mix" broadband network using a combination of fibre to the premises, fibre to the node, hybrid-fibre coaxial, satellite and wireless services.

 

Mr Turnbull regularly attacked Labor for failing to commission a cost-benefit analysis before launching the national broadband network, the biggest infrastructure project in Australia's history.

 

The report finds the multi-technology mix model outperforms a fibre to the premises plan in net economic benefits in 98 per cent of scenarios.

 

A multi-technology mix NBN would cost $24.9 billion to launch from 2015 compared with $35.3 billion for fibre to the premises (FTTP), the report finds.

 

A multi-technology mix would deliver download and upload speeds of 20-100 megabits a second, while FTTP would deliver speeds above 100Mbps.

 

The report finds the most cost-effective option would be an unsubsidised launch in which the free market delivers high-speed broadband to 93 per cent of homes. This would have a net economic benefit of $24 billion, but would leave 7 per cent of premises in regional and rural areas without fast broadband.

 

Providing fast broadband to the bush through wireless and satellite services – as envisaged under both Labor and the Coalition's plans – will cost nearly $5 billion but produce only $600 million in economic benefits.

 

This suggests an alternative model for a government committed to fast broadband for all Australians at a low cost: subsidising the introduction to the bush while leaving private providers to serve metropolitan areas.

 

Compared with the unsubsidised launch scenario, the multi-technology mix model has a net cost of $6 billion ($620 a household) and fibre to the premises has a net cost of $22 billion ($2220 a household).

 

Australians would be only $2 billion better off, in net terms, than if there was no further launch of broadband under a fibre to the premises model. They would be $18 billion better off under a multi-technology mix.

 

The report finds a multi-technology mix is more "future proof" because it can be upgraded to fibre to the premises later if demand for fast broadband booms.

 

"The [multi-technology mix] scenario leaves open more options for the future because it avoids high up-front costs while still allowing the capture of benefits if, and when, they emerge," the report finds.

 

The cost benefit analysis finds most of the benefits of fast broadband – most notably video downloads – will accrue to private users within households and businesses. By contrast, hospitals and schools require relatively low bandwidth to deliver services. 

 

As well as Mr Vertigan, the expert panel members were economist Henry Ergas, former Australian Communications Authority chairman Tony Shaw and former eBay Australia managing director Alison Deans.

 

Mr Vertigan said the findings of his report show that cost benefit analyses should be mandatory before construction begins on major public infrastructure projects.

 

Labor communications spokesman Jason Clare said the cost-benefit analysis was "tainted" by the involvement of figures such as longstanding NBN critic Henry Ergas.

 

"It's hard to take the report seriously when three weeks before the last election Malcolm Turnbull said he would get this report done by the government body Infrastructure Australia and instead what he has done is got some of the most vociferous critics of the NBN, as well as former staff, to write this report," he said.

 

Mr Clare said the government had a "myopic" view that fast broadband was just about video games.

 

This is about setting us and Australia up for the future. That is why Japan, South Korea and China and New Zealand are doing it and even in Indonesia."



Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/cost-benefit-analysis-shows-turnbull-plan-has-...




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$16b better off under Turnbull plan

 
 
...........yeah but at what sacrifice?....an absolute pile of *bleeping* rubbish.
 
My relatives living on a dirt floor in a tin shack (true!) running an orchard in a province in China have internet access 20 times faster - and dirt cheap!!
 
The Philippines - where I get connected to every time I have an issue with my Telstra broadband?....the operators I speak to have confirmed that their internet service is faster and costs a third of what we get here.
 
 
.....go figure.
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$16b better off under Turnbull plan

Choking on a one-lane NBN freeway

14 August 2014

Recently the ACCC took a pre-emptive strike against NBN Co about how FTTN and FTTB products and plans could be advertised. At the centre of the ACCC’s concern is NBN Co’s intention to use infrastructure that does not provide a guaranteed connection speed for all consumers connected to the NBN.

The ACCC correctly pointed out that NBN Co’s intention to offer five speed tiers for FTTN and FTTB infrastructure, including 12/1Mbps (download/upload), 12/5Mbps, 25/10Mbps, 50/20Mbps and 100/40Mbps, could mislead consumers into ordering plans that their broadband connection is not capable of delivering.

To allay this concern NBN Co indicated that selecting the correct speed tier would be “the responsibility of the end user and the provider”. This means is that service providers will resort to using terminology such as “up to” when describing plans.

But there is a bigger concern for Australian consumers that the ACCC has failed to tackle.

Capacity versus congestion

Now that NBN Co is considering the inclusion of FTTN, HFC and FTTB there is a need to revisit the capacity and congestion problem because with this multi-technology mix congestion will be a lot worse than if FTTP were utilised. In 2011 NBN Co released network design rules that clearly addressed the capacity and congestion problem by providing ample infrastructure to cope.

In NBN Co’s recently updated NBN for Business Product Fact Sheet the AVC Traffic Class 1 (primarily voice calls) performance capacity utilisation is set to remain less than or equal to 70 per cent. But how will this be achieved over FTTN, HFC or FTTB?

Australian consumers will demand a far greater customer experience from the NBN than what is currently provided by the ADSL2+ and mobile cellular networks. Yet, 10 months after being instructed to build a multi-technology mix NBN, NBN Co has not released a single document explaining how capacity and congestion will be dealt with for FTTN, FTTB and HFC.

Are Australian consumers about to spend $43 billion on a one-lane freeway?

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2014/8/14/technology/choking-one-lane-nbn-freeway
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$16b better off under Turnbull plan

Correct am3 ref:

 

......NBN Co has not released a single document explaining how capacity and congestion will be dealt with...........

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$16b better off under Turnbull plan

Which is a BIG issue. Before being connected to the NBN a few months ago (under a Labor signed contract, FTTP), we had mobile broadband at home. The congestion was bad. That people could still have that issue once connected to the NBN in the future, is more than ridiculous.
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$16b better off under Turnbull plan

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$16b better off under Turnbull plan

TASMANIAN  retiree John Lovelock and NSW businessman Richard Drozdowski are the two sides of the same NBN coin. 

 

Both were among the first in Australia to be hooked up to faster broadband speeds and downloads — courtesy of the initial NBN rollout being centred in the rural electorates of key independent MPs — but their subsequent experiences with the technology could not be more different.

 

For Mr Drozdowski, a small business owner in the northern NSW town of Armidale, the shift from a copper to a fibre network has made his life vastly more difficult than before.

 

“It’s a mess,” says Mr Drozdowski of the New England city’s connection to the NBN. “It’s a pure mess.”

 

Across Bass Strait, there are no such complaints from Mr Lovelock.

 

While he freely admits that faster broadband speeds have not been “a life-changing experience”, the retiree says the rollout in his hometown of Kingston, southwest of Hobart, has been trouble-free.

 

The former Holden business manager decided to pay the extra $30 a month for an $80 Telstra plan, despite only using the connection for browsing the internet and online shopping.

 

It’s the same story with his neighbours, and their neighbours.

 

“It was the most seamless process, even from the day they were installing the fibre,” Mr Lovelock said.

 

“I’m very happy with it but I must confess it hasn’t been a life-changing experience.

 

“It has just allowed me to do the things I do a bit faster.”

 

The second-generation owner of a business that sells ceramic wall and floor tiles, Mr Drozdowski was never going to benefit greatly from faster broadband speeds and downloads.

 

He uses the internet mostly for orders and invoices. But when Mr Drozdowski made the move to connect to the NBN, he began to experience major difficulties with other business systems including his telephone line, credit card machine, fax machine and alarm system.

 

“The perception was once you changed from copper to fibre it would be just a simple swap over. That didn’t occur,” he said yesterday.

 

“Firstly we lost our business telephone. For eight working days we just didn’t have a phone.

 

“And then the phone number that we had for 50 years that’s splattered all over our letterhead and advertising, we couldn’t get back.

 

“For our business, that phone number is everything. People thought we had gone out of ­business.

 

“And now the fax machine and the credit card machine don’t work with the new system, and the alarm system only partially works. It no longer has a back-to-base facility.

 

“We were happy with what we had. But we had to go to NBN, we had no choice.”

 

Mr Lovelock said it was likely, had the project been market-driven from the beginning, that Tasmania and other regional areas would have been the last to gain access.

 

“It’s purely a population and demographic thing,” he said.

 

“There are more people aged over 65 here than even in South Australia. I’m not downloading two-hour movies or anything like that.”

 

Mr Lovelock’s plan allows a maximum download speed of 12Mbps and upload speeds of 1Mbps. If he wanted the full 100Mbps offered by the NBN technology, he would need to pay another $20 per month.

 

Mr Lovelock’s plan allows him about 5GB of downloads every month and he estimates he uses about 80 per cent of it. Was the investment worth it?

 

“I suspect I would have done similarly well under Turnbull’s plan,” he said.

 

“In terms of the taxpayer investment, the thing that always concerned me from the beginning was the fact it seemed to have been worked out on the back of a coaster on a VIP flight with Kevin 747.”

 

Back in Armidale, Mr Drozdowski says the vast costs involved in subsidising the rollout of the NBN in bush areas have delivered limited pay-offs.

 

“If they’re talking about a faster internet, that’s fine, and if that’s all you’re after it’s terrific,” he said. “But it’s all been a headache for us.

 

“I would say probably 70 per cent of businesses that I’ve talked to in this town are in a similar situation. There’s nothing but complaints about the NBN. You can get your internet, you can get a telephone line (but) you can’t get anything else.”

 

 

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/in-depth/early-nbn-adopters-straits-apart/story-e6frgaif-12...

 

 

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$16b better off under Turnbull plan

All talk for ....how many months now since LNP have been at the helm???....

 

Give me a break!

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$16b better off under Turnbull plan

Five ways New Zealand is smarter than Australia on broadband

March 2014

In Australia, poking fun at our New Zealand cousins has become more than just a hobby over the years; these days it enjoys the status of a national sport. However, when it becomes to broadband, the situation has been turned on its head: New Zealand is doing everything right that we are doing wrong. Here’s five ways the Kiwis are smarter than us in this critical area.

First, some background. Like Australia, New Zealand has its own national broadband project. Dubbed the ‘Ultra-Fast Broadband’ project (UFB), it focuses on deploying Fibre to the Premises broadband to most of the population. It is being delivered by several private sector partners, with the rollout as a whole coordinated by a government company known as Crown Fibre Holdings. It is an initiative of the current National (conservative) government led by Prime Minister John Key and was announced in 2008, with the final details confirmed in 2009.

With that out of the way, let’s look at the top five ways New Zealand is kicking Australia’s butt when it comes to the broadband issue.

1. New Zealand’s NBN still has a Fibre to the Premises model

The dream of a national broadband network using the ultimate telecommunications technology — Fibre to the Premises — was first raised in Australia by then-Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and then-Communications Minister Stephen Conroy back in April 2009. Over the four and a half years since that time, Australians increasingly got on board with the vision of a new government telecommunications monopoly, dubbed the National Broadband Network Company, which would deliver that vision, finally fixing the broadband issue in Australia for all time.

However, over that period, the Labor Federal Government almost completely failed to deliver on its broadband promises. In December last year, after taking power, the new Coalition Government fundamentally abandoned Labor’s plan. The Coalition is now supporting a vision in which up to a third of Australian premises will be served by the HFC cable networks of Telstra and Optus, and Fibre to the Node and Fibre to the Basement used in other areas not already covered by Labor’s FTTP approach.

It’s likely that the Coalition’s ‘Multi-Technology Mix’ model will deliver many Australians better broadband over the next five years. However, even NBN Co executive chairman Ziggy Switkowski — a Coalition appointee hand-picked for the role — admits portions of the network will require upgrading in as short a period as five years’ time. The MTM mix does not represent a long-term solution to Australia’s telecommunications needs.

In contrast, New Zealand is sticking by its FTTP guns. As NZ Communications Minister Amy Adams said during a visit to Australia in August 2012: “It made better sense to do it now rather than have to come back in the future and retrofit fibre to the node to the fibre to the home connection.”

Like Australia, New Zealand is also planning to use satellite and wireless broadband in rural areas where FTTP isn’t economically feasible, but unlike Australia, New Zealand didn’t throw the FTTP option out the window when the going got tough.

2. NZ’s Opposition isn’t trying to tear its NBN down

As in Australia, New Zealand has two major sides of politics — a conservative/liberalist side and a Labor/socialist side. The current Opposition is largely formed from the New Zealand Labour Party. In Australia, while in Opposition, the Coalition did everything it could to tear down Labor’s NBN project, with then-Opposition Leader Tony Abbott famously telling Turnbull to “demolish” the project. Coalition MPs in Australia have been constantly critical of the project on every front.

Much of the Coalition’s criticism has focused on the fundamental nature of the project. Turnbull has stated on many occasions that the project uses technology — FTTP — which is too expensive, and that the Government should have focused on cheaper technologies such as Fibre to the Node, as well as reusing HFC cable. In addition, at a basic level, the Coalition does not support the idea of the Government building a new broadband network, but would rather incentivise the private sector to handle the issue.

In New Zealand, the Opposition has taken a radically different approach to the criticism of the Government’s Ultra-Fast Broadband project. I wouldn’t say NZ Labour is fully in favour of the UFB project, but neither is it trying to destroy it.

Instead of trying to tear the project as a whole down, the Opposition has criticised the Government over specific aspects of the project, as well as its management of specific aspects of the telco regulatory regime (such as the ‘copper tax’ issue). You can read through this criticism online here. You’ll find a real dearth of vitriol and more sober examination of the broadband issue in general. If I could sum it up, I would say that the NZ Opposition’s handling of the broadband issue seems designed to hold the Government accountable for its mistakes, while not trying to torpedo the project as a whole.

3. New Zealand has more reasonable rollout goals

By any measure, Australia’s rollout goals for our NBN project have been too ambitious. When initially announced, the Government planned for the NBN’s fibre to reach about 93 percent of premises by June 2021, with the remainder to be served more quickly by satellite and wireless.

In contrast, New Zealand has taken a more conservative and realistic approach, with the aim of bringing FTTP broadband to just 75 percent of New Zealanders over a ten year period, concentrating in the first six years on priority broadband users such as businesses, schools and health services.

And New Zealand has proven remarkably effective at meeting its deployment goals. Crown Fibre Holdings announced in August 2013 that the project was 20 percent complete was on track to reach the 75 percent coverage mark by the end of 2019. “We’re very pleased to see that just over half of urban businesses now have access to UFB, while 67 percent of schools in UFB areas are now able to connect to the network”, said CFH chief executive Graham Mitchell at the time.


Part of the issue here is related to perceptions. The Australian Government hyped up its NBN project to huge levels. Consequently, when it didn’t deliver, many Australians were very disappointed. This allowed the Opposition an angle to argument that the project should be radically overhauled. By using very modest, slow-moving targets, New Zealand has been able to maintain the non-controversial nature of its UFB project. The project is moving slowly but steadily towards fruition.

4. New Zealand split its incumbent telco

One of the fundamental precepts which politicians creating telecommunications policy over the past decade have realised globally is that the main impediment to the development of high-speed broadband in their country is usually the incumbent telco — a massive, national player like Telstra which owns each country’s copper telephony network, and used to be owned by each country’s government but was privatised some time over the past decade.

There are two key problems with incumbents. Firstly, they enjoy massive advantages over rivals, courtesy of their existing network footprint and subscriber base. Secondly, their vertically integrated nature (being both wholesale and retail players) means that they are likely to undercut the development of competition in broadband markets, by treating their own retail arms more favourably than their competitors, who are forced to engage with their massive infrastructure footprint.

This usually means incumbent telcos are not incentivised to upgrade their infrastructure with high-speed broadband. Instead, they typically will sweat their assets, continually generating profits for their shareholders.

In 2011, New Zealand, like other countries such as the UK, fixed this problem by splitting their incumbent telco into different wholesale and retail arms. Hence the country has a new, wholesale-only, publicly listed telco named Chorus, which looks after the infrastructure formerly owned by Telecom New Zealand after it split off from the mothership. Telecom NZ itself is re-branding along more retail lines.

Chorus is actively working with the NZ Government on the UFB project, and it’s also actively developing its own systems and focusing on the wholesale market. It has no interaction with retail customers.

In Australia, successive governments have failed to take the same action with regard to Telstra, meaning that Telstra still maintains dominant control over the telecommunications industry (both retail and wholesale). It also means that the Government is forced into costly and expensive negotiations for access to Telstra’s infrastructure as part of any national broadband upgrade, and that rival telcos are continually forced to work with the competition regulator, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, to get basic access to Telstra’s infrastructure.

5. NZ’s incumbent telco is doing most of its NBN rollout

If you examine the construction model which the previous Labor Government chose for its NBN rollout (consisting of independent contractors deploying the infrastructure, coordinated by a central government-owned company), you would have to come to the conclusion that it is highly unusual in international terms.

Globally, it is usually only incumbent telcos that are able to successfully upgrade their own networks. There are very solid reasons for this. Incumbent telcos have high levels of degree and expertise in dealing with their own infrastructure. They have large existing workforces which can be converted to deal with construction work. They have specific and detailed information about the geography of every city, every suburb, every street, every actual premise, which no other company has.

The failure to engage Telstra in the process of upgrading its network has had quite a dramatic effect upon Australia’s deployment of its NBN infrastructure. The rollout was significantly delayed right from the start by the need to negotiate with Telstra on access to the telco’s infrastructure; a delay that would not have occurred had Telstra been upgrading its own infrastructure. Even former Communications Minister Stephen Conroy has acknowledged that the external contractor model used by NBN Co has failed, and in several states — Western Australia, the Northern Territory and to a certain extent South Australia — contractors have had to be removed from the construction effort because of a lack of ability to deliver.

As in Australia, New Zealand established a government company, Crown Fibre Holdings, to get its own UFB rollout done. And, as in Australia, external contractors have been commissioned to deploy the network.

However, the key difference is that New Zealand has commissioned Chorus, the existing incumbent operator of the country’s copper network, to conduct the majority of its UFB rollout. Chorus is currently conducting 69.4 percent of the rollout, with other major utility companies Northpower, Waikato Networks and Enable Services conducting the rest.

In its model, New Zealand has taken a best of both worlds approach. Unlike Australia, it has contracted the incumbent telco to conduct most of its FTTP rollout. However, like Australia, it has also made use of regional utility manpower where appropriate. The net result has been significantly greater certainty and capability in the rollout.

So, are you convinced yet that New Zealanders are smarter than Australians when it comes to the deployment of high-speed broadband? No matter how you look at New Zealand’s Ultra-Fast Broadband project, it is apparent that our Kiwi neighbours are doing a better job of that project than Australia is doing with its own broadband initiative.

New Zealand’s politicians aren’t incessantly fighting each other on the issue and trying to tear each other’s projects down wholesale, as ours are in Australia. The country wisely split its incumbent telco several years ago, ensuring stable competition in the local market and that the incumbent would help with its high-speed broadband rollout. New Zealand has more reasonable rollout goals, and, most importantly, it’s still focused on using the best technology available — Fibre to the Premises.

Right now, when it comes to the issue of high-speed broadband, New Zealand is making Australia look like a nation of clowns who have no idea what we are doing. New Zealand has less resources than Australia and a much smaller population. But when it comes to the development of broadband, the country has been able to do more with less than Australia has. Right now, no doubt most New Zealand technologists are looking at the NBN situation in Australia and thinking: “Those Australians are crazy!”

I don’t blame them. I think the same thing every goddamn day.

http://delimiter.com.au/2014/03/13/five-ways-nz-smarter-australia-broadband/
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My NBN plan , $40 per month, no contract, the same as my previous service. With a lot more GB's per month. A choice of around 45 RSP's.. Before NBN only ISP with ADSL2 ,Telstra ,at greatly inflated prices as they had no competition. I don't live rural either.
Or slow ADSL at greatly inflated prices from other ISPS.
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