You're a wonder, countess. I looked up that seller's 'completed listings' and it is very odd because although there have been 3 sales in the last month, it came up showing zero completed listings. Same with sold listings.
In view of the disastrous last 2 sales, I believe ebay should at the very least be checking out the first sale/buyer ID to see if that was a set up.
But it may not have been, it is hard to say, because what I find odd is the seller admitted each time that the item had not yet been posted. You'd think their response would have been that it was in the post.
And what has happened to the 21 day hold on funds for new sellers? Is that still in place?
I am wondering if the seller, being new, just abandoned the whole sales thing after the first sale and decided not to bother following through. They may not yet have the money and their view may be 'Just let them keep the money'.
Of course, it isn't the buyer keeping the money, it is ebay/paypal and in time if there is no claim upheld, that money will go into the seller's account.
Odds of getting it back then? Low.
I think you should be able to get your money back, one way or the other but you'll need to try each way in the correct order.
1. First off, try what countess suggested with live chat and explain the position. Even invite the rep to look at the messages.
If that doesn't work, all I can say is ebay is incompetent, but let's face it, sometimes they are!
2. Then try paypal, again being very clear the item did not arrive.
3. Finally, try a charge back.
