on 06-10-2021 11:26 AM
I was going to title this topic COVID vaccination rates and opening up at 80% (by the numbers) . . . but went with the one suggested by countess on another thread.
Please note that I am not starting this thread for the discussion of COVID vaccination, making vaccination mandatory or the pros/cons of vaccination.
This thread is also not for posting about 'early stage treatments' for COVID. I may well report any such posts for being off-topic if they are made.
I won't be posting arguments for or against vaccination, just the numbers and percentages that will drive the easing of restrictions.
The intention of this thread is to provide an analysis of the figures that I haven't been able to find elsewhere. It is for me to post screengrabs of an Excel spreadsheet that shows the double dose percentages that will become crucial in opening up the country.
I will prepare a spoiler so that members can see how the spreadsheet numbers are calculated. The spoiler will also note the source I use for spreadsheet preparation.
If anyone notices any errors in my calculations or screengrabs then please let me know.
Solved! Go to Solution.
16-11-2021 04:30 AM - edited 16-11-2021 04:31 AM
springyzone, as I understand it, it's to do with how population is calculated. Different ways of estimating population (and especially for the purpose of health measures) can give significantly varying results. We also can't downplay the effect of the pandemic on movement of people - international students departing, interstate students heading back home, overseas/interstate residents returning home, and so on.
This (below) is from the health.gov.au website. If you click onto it, it should expand for a clearer view.
16-11-2021 04:50 AM - edited 16-11-2021 04:53 AM
Vaccinations and case numbers in Victoria as of 14th October 2021), reported 15th November:
Vaccination At least first dose | Vaccination Second dose | TOTAL vaccination doses currently in Victoria |
92.72% (16+) | 87.47% (16+) | 5,013,650 at least partially vaccinated (16+) 4,729,769 fully vaccinated (16+) |
83.73% (12-15) | 71.07% (12-15) | 258,408 at least partially vaccinated (12-15) 219,340 fully vaccinated (12-15) |
NEW CASES over last 24 hours | No. of tests processed over last 24 hours | TOTAL CASES currently active in Victoria |
860 | 48,104 tests | 17,518 |
Lives lost over last 24 hours | Cases currently hospitalised | Cases currently in ICU |
5 deaths
| 378 patients
| 78 patients (active). 48 are on ventilators. Additional 71 patients in ICU (cleared). |
Reff over last 7 days 1.06 | Currently in isolation (close contacts) More than 77,380 active primary close contacts |
Vaccination information sourced from health.gov.au
Victoria is now 87.3% fully vaccinated (12+)
People who have passed away with COVID-19 in Victoria
as of 15/11/2021
Age group | Male | Female | Total |
0 to 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
10-19 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
20-29 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
30-39 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
40-49 | 8 | 3 | 11 |
50-59 | 27 | 16 | 43 |
60-69 | 59 | 30 | 89 |
70-79 | 150 | 95 | 245 |
80-89 | 251 | 228 | 479 |
90+ | 132 | 224 | 356 |
Total | 633 | 598 | 1,231 |
These numbers represent the total number of people in Victoria who have died with COVID-19 since the beginning of the pandemic in 2020.
Vaccination rollout state by state (16+):
NSW: 94.2% single dose, 91.1% double dose
ACT: >95% single dose, >95% double dose
VIC: 92.7% single dose, 87.5% double dose
SA: 85.4% single dose, 74.1% double dose
TAS: 91.5% single dose, 82.2% double dose
WA: 82.6% single dose, 70.0% double dose
NT: 84.0% single dose, 70.5% double dose
Positivity rate reflects both levels of COVID-19 and possible undertesting. Any LGA with a higher positivity rate should be encouraging testing as much as possible to make sure all possible cases are detected.
The positivity rate has increased by over 50% in the Local Government Areas of Loddon, Indigo, Murrindindi, Mount Alexander, Moorabool and Bayside.
The positivity rate is 30% higher in the least vaccinated LGAs than in the most vaccinated LGAs.
Testing rates are down in 73 out of 79 LGAs.
16-11-2021 01:55 PM - edited 16-11-2021 01:56 PM
Vaccinations and case numbers in Victoria as of 15th October 2021), reported 16th November:
Vaccination At least first dose | Vaccination Second dose | TOTAL vaccination doses currently in Victoria |
92.78% (16+) | 87.84% (16+) | 5,017,128 at least partially vaccinated (16+) 4,750,217 fully vaccinated (16+) |
83.87% (12-15) | 71.92% (12-15) | 258,828 at least partially vaccinated (12-15) 221,942 fully vaccinated (12-15) |
NEW CASES over last 24 hours | No. of tests processed over last 24 hours | TOTAL CASES currently active in Victoria |
797 | 53,529 tests | 14,131 |
Lives lost over last 24 hours | Cases currently hospitalised | Cases currently in ICU |
5 deaths
| 394 patients
| 72 patients (active). 44 are on ventilators. Additional 61 patients in ICU (cleared). |
Reff over last 7 days 1.06 | Currently in isolation (close contacts) More than 80,100 active primary close contacts |
Vaccination information sourced from health.gov.au
Victoria is now 87.4% fully vaccinated (12+)
People who have passed away with COVID-19 in Victoria
as of 15/11/2021
Age group | Male | Female | Total |
0 to 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
10-19 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
20-29 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
30-39 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
40-49 | 8 | 3 | 11 |
50-59 | 27 | 16 | 43 |
60-69 | 60 | 30 | 90 |
70-79 | 151 | 97 | 248 |
80-89 | 252 | 229 | 481 |
90+ | 133 | 225 | 358 |
Total | 637 | 602 | 1,239 |
These numbers represent the total number of people in Victoria who have died with COVID-19 since the beginning of the pandemic in 2020.
Vaccination rollout state by state (16+):
NSW: 94.2% single dose, 91.3% double dose
ACT: >95% single dose, >95% double dose
VIC: 92.8% single dose, 87.8% double dose
SA: 85.6% single dose, 74.7% double dose
TAS: 91.7% single dose, 82.7% double dose
WA: 82.9% single dose, 70.5% double dose
NT: 84.4% single dose, 71.0% double dose
on 17-11-2021 08:48 PM
Vaccinations and case numbers in Victoria as of 16th October 2021), reported 17th November:
Vaccination At least first dose | Vaccination Second dose | TOTAL vaccination doses currently in Victoria |
92.82% (16+) | 88.17% (16+) | 5,019,270 at least partially vaccinated (16+) 4,767,912 fully vaccinated (16+) |
83.98% (12-15) | 72.61% (12-15) | 259,178 at least partially vaccinated (12-15) 224,079 fully vaccinated (12-15) |
NEW CASES over last 24 hours | No. of tests processed over last 24 hours | TOTAL CASES currently active in Victoria |
796 | 72,010 tests | 14,260 |
Lives lost over last 24 hours | Cases currently hospitalised | Cases currently in ICU |
9 deaths
| 357 patients
| 58 patients (active). 44 are on ventilators. Additional 65 patients in ICU (cleared). |
Reff over last 7 days 1.06 | Currently in isolation (close contacts) More than 83,700 active primary close contacts |
Vaccination information sourced from health.gov.au
Victoria is now 87.8% fully vaccinated (12+)
People who have passed away with COVID-19 in Victoria
as of 17/11/2021
Age group | Male | Female | Total |
0 to 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
10-19 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
20-29 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
30-39 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
40-49 | 8 | 3 | 11 |
50-59 | 28 | 16 | 44 |
60-69 | 62 | 30 | 92 |
70-79 | 152 | 97 | 249 |
80-89 | 253 | 232 | 489 |
90+ | 133 | 226 | 359 |
Total | 642 | 606 | 1,248 |
These numbers represent the total number of people in Victoria who have died with COVID-19 since the beginning of the pandemic in 2020.
Vaccination rollout state by state (16+):
on 17-11-2021 08:58 PM
Click on the images to see them in full size:
on 17-11-2021 09:23 PM
Interesting. 900k jabs for an eligible ACT population of around 300k. So everybody's tripled jabbed?
There seem to be some flaws in the figures.
17-11-2021 09:58 PM - edited 17-11-2021 09:59 PM
Good point, as this can definitely be confusing.
Vaccinations are not necessarily administered in the state or territory in which a person resides. The number of residents vaccinated (even taking into account double jabs, or even triple jabs) isn't the same number as the number of vaccines administered.
Looking just at residents of the ACT, 344,389 have received at least a first dose, and 333,584 have received two doses.
ACT
16+ dose 1 | 344,389 |
16+ dose 2 | 333,584 |
16+ population | 344,037 |
16+ % with dose 1 | >99% |
16+ % with dose 2 | 96.96% |
50+ dose 1 | 133,342 |
50+ dose 2 | 129.861 |
50+ population | 127.802 |
50+ % with dose 1 | >99% |
50+ % with dose 2 | >99% |
70+ dose 1 | 43,417 |
70+ dose 2 | 42,128 |
70+ population | 39,946 |
70+ % with dose 1 | >99% |
70+ % with dose 2 | >99% |
2-15 dose 1 | 19,593 |
2-15 dose 2 | 18,478 |
2-15 population | 19,693 |
2-15 % with dose 1 | >99% |
2-15 % with dose 2 | 93.83% |
National population will not equal sum of listed jurisdictions due to a small number of people counted in national population residing in some 'other' territories. Sum of state doses will not add to national total as some records are unable to be geocoded to a State or Territory.
... and in context... (click onto image to expand)
on 17-11-2021 10:56 PM
Great thread thanks OP
on 18-11-2021 01:11 AM
I echo the “great thread” comment to k1ooo.
(I hope he doesn’t mind my continuing to use it; it’s no longer just vexed vax jabs. If a new thread would be better, I’ll stand by.)
on 18-11-2021 05:01 AM
I find your posts on this thread very informative (as a Victorian)