Aussie $$ set to fall

Following on from other events like the fall in interest rates, high unemployment and Australians high debt.


 


Rumors within the investment community believe the AU$ is about to fall.


 


I personally believe its about to trip over and fall on its sword.


 


So many will say that's just being negative, I say it will happen and it will be sooner than most think 1 to 6 months and the $$ will be falling.


 


The net effect of this will be that prices will rocket up as so much in now imported.

Message 1 of 96
Latest reply
95 REPLIES 95

Aussie $$ set to fall


@the_hawk* wrote:

well the only thing I was wrong about was the time frame, I stated between 6 and 12 months and its only taken a liitle over 2 months.

 

I believe most stated it wasnt going to happen and our economy was great, because they were told so.

 

well it did happen and it isnt great as some are now finally starting to realise we have serious problems


its a good thing not a disaster.  you mightn;t care if we have competitive businesses here .. but most do (unless they live off investments, always a gamble.. )

Message 81 of 96
Latest reply

Aussie $$ set to fall

How do you figure that's a good thing, LL?

 

I means cost of living goes up for us while overseas can buy our goods cheap?

 

We import way more than we export so our dollar doesn't go as far as it used in terms of buying power while we have to sell our exports and get less for it.

 

Have I got that wrong?

Message 82 of 96
Latest reply

Aussie $$ set to fall

if australia is going to have  manufacturing (etc) in its future it needs a lower dollar.  think about 'after the boom'  we cant expect everyone to go mining.  a lower dollar means export competitiveness.. Jobs.

Message 83 of 96
Latest reply

Aussie $$ set to fall

"However, its ($AUD) recent demise  is more about the rebounding US economy that anything else." It is also returning to  a  "normal" position unboosted by  US economic woes, and foreign currency parked here for a while!.

 

The possible further reduction in  domestic interest rates will certainly make it less attractive for foreign capital, whilst  our unemploymrnt and debt are of low significance (in my opinion).

 

Another  major factor is  the movement into US bonds/currency  after Bernanke hinted that QE would not end for some time, and calmed fears that the central bank might raise interest rates, all coupled with a glimmer of the US economy improving. Thus, as mentioned above, it is more that the $USD is strengthening /is becoming attractive, rather than the $AUD is diving.

 

So China's GDP is going to fall to around 7% annual increase (we should be so lucky), that is for an economy that has virtually doubled over 10 years, that will still require our raw materials:

"Despite weakening prices, total energy and resource exports 2013–14',  are forecast to rise 11 per cent to $197 billion, helped by expectations of a depreciation in the Australian dollar." And remember resources are priced in $USD.

 

I do not think the $AUD : $USD ratio decrease will be catastrophic, but to a point that will reflect a position  where the US economy is hopefully out of the doldrums, and Australia is no longer a "safe parking haven"

 

PS.

Australian  equities are still producing some excellent FF returns, and are cheap at the moment (but rising).

nɥºɾ

Message 84 of 96
Latest reply

Aussie $$ set to fall

well here we are, I wonder what tomorrow will bring

 

 

AUD / USD0.906675-1.51
  
Message 85 of 96
Latest reply

Aussie $$ set to fall

Yes, AUS $ is back where it was in 2008 and then again 2010:

 

http://www.oanda.com/currency/historical-rates/

 

In the end of 2008 and early 2009 it was much lower, in January it went down to 0.6390 and we survived.  🙂

 

And here is aus $ against GBP:

 

http://www.oanda.com/currency/historical-rates/

 

 

 

 

 

000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

Voltaire: “Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities, Can Make You Commit Atrocities” .
Message 86 of 96
Latest reply

Aussie $$ set to fall

It will not show what I set, just reset it for the other currencies 🙂  We are still up against EURO and GBP

000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

Voltaire: “Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities, Can Make You Commit Atrocities” .
Message 87 of 96
Latest reply

Aussie $$ set to fall

Currency Value % Change

AUD / USD0.8975-0.04
Message 88 of 96
Latest reply

Aussie $$ set to fall

So what, in your opinion, is the optimum exchange rate, Hawk, and on what do you base that opinion?

Message 89 of 96
Latest reply

Aussie $$ set to fall

If it goes up, it's bad.

If it goes down, it's bad.


That's a summary 😄
.
Message 90 of 96
Latest reply