on 09-05-2013 03:32 PM
Following on from other events like the fall in interest rates, high unemployment and Australians high debt.
Rumors within the investment community believe the AU$ is about to fall.
I personally believe its about to trip over and fall on its sword.
So many will say that's just being negative, I say it will happen and it will be sooner than most think 1 to 6 months and the $$ will be falling.
The net effect of this will be that prices will rocket up as so much in now imported.
on 14-07-2013 11:23 AM
@the_hawk* wrote:well the only thing I was wrong about was the time frame, I stated between 6 and 12 months and its only taken a liitle over 2 months.
I believe most stated it wasnt going to happen and our economy was great, because they were told so.
well it did happen and it isnt great as some are now finally starting to realise we have serious problems
its a good thing not a disaster. you mightn;t care if we have competitive businesses here .. but most do (unless they live off investments, always a gamble.. )
on 14-07-2013 11:53 AM
How do you figure that's a good thing, LL?
I means cost of living goes up for us while overseas can buy our goods cheap?
We import way more than we export so our dollar doesn't go as far as it used in terms of buying power while we have to sell our exports and get less for it.
Have I got that wrong?
on 14-07-2013 11:57 AM
if australia is going to have manufacturing (etc) in its future it needs a lower dollar. think about 'after the boom' we cant expect everyone to go mining. a lower dollar means export competitiveness.. Jobs.
on 14-07-2013 02:19 PM
"However, its ($AUD) recent demise is more about the rebounding US economy that anything else." It is also returning to a "normal" position unboosted by US economic woes, and foreign currency parked here for a while!.
The possible further reduction in domestic interest rates will certainly make it less attractive for foreign capital, whilst our unemploymrnt and debt are of low significance (in my opinion).
Another major factor is the movement into US bonds/currency after Bernanke hinted that QE would not end for some time, and calmed fears that the central bank might raise interest rates, all coupled with a glimmer of the US economy improving. Thus, as mentioned above, it is more that the $USD is strengthening /is becoming attractive, rather than the $AUD is diving.
So China's GDP is going to fall to around 7% annual increase (we should be so lucky), that is for an economy that has virtually doubled over 10 years, that will still require our raw materials:
"Despite weakening prices, total energy and resource exports 2013–14', are forecast to rise 11 per cent to $197 billion, helped by expectations of a depreciation in the Australian dollar." And remember resources are priced in $USD.
I do not think the $AUD : $USD ratio decrease will be catastrophic, but to a point that will reflect a position where the US economy is hopefully out of the doldrums, and Australia is no longer a "safe parking haven"
PS.
Australian equities are still producing some excellent FF returns, and are cheap at the moment (but rising).
nɥºɾ
on 30-07-2013 07:17 PM
well here we are, I wonder what tomorrow will bring
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31-07-2013 04:48 PM - edited 31-07-2013 04:52 PM
Yes, AUS $ is back where it was in 2008 and then again 2010:
http://www.oanda.com/currency/historical-rates/
In the end of 2008 and early 2009 it was much lower, in January it went down to 0.6390 and we survived. 🙂
And here is aus $ against GBP:
http://www.oanda.com/currency/historical-rates/
on 31-07-2013 04:56 PM
It will not show what I set, just reset it for the other currencies 🙂 We are still up against EURO and GBP
on 01-08-2013 09:46 PM
Currency Value % Change
AUD / USD | 0.8975 | -0.04 |
on 01-08-2013 09:50 PM
So what, in your opinion, is the optimum exchange rate, Hawk, and on what do you base that opinion?
on 01-08-2013 10:04 PM