INTERNAL Labor polling shows the party is facing a wipeout in key federal seats with swings of up to 15 per cent in Melbourne's southeast, sparking a debate about which electorates to protect at the September poll.
The polling shows a dramatic turn against the ALP in a series of seats in Melbourne's mortgage and manufacturing belt, south and east of the CBD, with voters disappointed by Julia Gillard and her government
The Australian understands that Labor has surrendered its seats below 6 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis, which means that four seats will fall in Victoria.
It is believed Labor hardheads from the national office plan to visit Melbourne next month to determine which of the remaining seats it will try to defend amid an alarming fall in support for the government.
The Labor polling matches Liberal surveys, which also show the four most marginal ALP seats falling at the election and several other safer seats now in play.
At the weekend, Labor suffered a primary vote swing of almost 15 per cent in the state by-election for the seat of Lyndhurst, a Labor heartland southeast of the city.
At 27 per cent, Lyndhurst has the highest percentage of workers in Victoria in the manufacturing sector. It also has one of the highest numbers of overseas-born residents as well as being a strong mortgage belt region. Key federal seats in and around Lyndhurst include Isaacs, Hotham, Holt and Bruce.
Senior party figures said federal factors were central to the Lyndhurst result and that a primary swing of 13-15 per cent was looming in some federal seats.
State leader Daniel Andrews yesterday intensified his criticism of Labor's federal brand.
Mr Andrews, when asked about federal implications for the Lyndhurst by-election, said: "From a federal point of view, well, need I add my voice? We all know that there are significant challenges that the Prime Minister and federal Labor are facing."
He said the federal government and Ms Gillard were working hard to retrieve their position. "But there's no use trying to explain away or to ignore the fact that we do face challenges," he added.
Ms Gillard did not respond to requests for comment.
The four Labor seats expected to fall in Victoria are Corangamite (0.3 per cent), Deakin (0.6 per cent), La Trobe (1.7 per cent) and Chisholm (5.8 per cent).
Deakin, Chisholm and La Trobe all fall in the eastern and southeastern belt. While both sides of politics expect these seats to fall, Labor will next month debate how to retain a string of other seats that are in danger of falling as well. Bruce (7.7 per cent) is in the southeastern belt, while Isaacs (10.4 per cent), held by Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus, is under threat due to the size of the swings measured by the ALP.
Other southeastern seats such as Simon Crean's Hotham and Holt (both 14 per cent) would normally seem to be bridges too far for the Liberal Party. However, if huge swings do eventuate then the Liberal Party will seek to win these seats at the following election.
"The punters have made up their minds," a Labor figure said. "The seats on 5 or 6 per cent have gone. It's a question of which of the rest we try to save. They aren't . . . listening to the government. It's over."
Victorian Labor figures said state issues were rarely discussed during the Lyndhurst by-election with voters focused on the September federal poll.
After nearly 80 per cent of the vote was counted, Labor had suffered a swing on the primary vote of nearly 15 per cent compared with the 2010 election. Labor had secured nearly 41 per cent of the primary vote, down from 55.5 per cent at the 2010 general election.
The Greens secured 9.4 per cent, compared with 6.1 per cent in 2010. The Liberal Party decision not to run led to votes "spraying all over the place", Labor insiders said. The Liberal vote appeared to fall to Family First and local candidate Hung Vo.
John Ferguson, Victorian political editor Australian.
