Labor on the rocks: 44 to 56

[nero_bolt]

The Coalition will be hoping Labor doesn’t now stampede to Kevin Rudd after tonight’s disastrous Nielsen Poll:

Labor’s support, which had climbed into the mid-30s, has now collapsed, plunging it back towards landslide-losing territory were an election held now.

Its primary vote stands at just 30 per cent, a dip of 5 points since the last survey in December and a mere 4 points above its nadir of 26 per cent in May 2012…

On a two-party-preferred basis, Labor’s support languishes at 45 per cent to 55 per cent for the Coalition, according to voter feedback on the direction of second preferences. 

Based on preference flows from the 2010 election, the two-party split is 44/56 in favour of the Coal...

That’s the measure that counts, of course, but after repeating Labor spin so furiously for a year about the significance of Tony Abbott’s unpopularity, I’m sure we can expect the media to give us another forest of articles about Gillard this time being the truly unpopular one:

Crucially, in terms of Ms Gillard’s command of the Labor leadership, Mr Abbott has overtaken her in the preferred prime minister stakes with his support leaping by 9 percentage points to 49 per cent compared with Ms Gillard on 45 - down 5 points.

The pollster explains:

‘’I think the most likely thing is that the combined effect of Craig Thomson and Eddie Obeid created an atmosphere of crisis,’’ says Nielsen’s John Stirton.

And while Labor lost its opportunity, Tony Abbott took his. ‘’I think the results probably reflect Abbott’s change of approach,’’ becoming less aggressive and more positive, says Stirton. ‘’There have been far fewer shots of him on the evening news in his shrill, hectoring mode. He’s been more moderate and bipartisan – it took him a long time to learn, but the voters rather like that.’’

Unmentioned is that Gillard has proved catastrophically bad.

That election announcement. Those resignations just afterwards. That budget blowout. That mining tax. That broken promise of a surplus. Those boats. That shrillness. That.... 

http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/andrewbolt/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/rudderless_labor_on_the_rocks_44_to_56/

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/pms-poll-pain-abbott-and-rudd-more-popular-20130217-2elb7.html#ixzz2L9lfn0O4

[nero_bolt]

I wonder when will Rudd make his move? 🙂

[freddie*rooster]

I wonder when Malcolm will make his move?

[azureline**]

mmm... both parties may have a change of leadership.....

[silverfaun]

I can't make sense of the "change to Malcom comment"  as Tony Abbot has trounced Gillard in popularity & driven the LNP to an election winning position.

He also has lifted his popularity with women whilst women are deserting Gillard, Ipso facto, why would they change a winning formula? or is it just another vain hope from the luvvies.

Even if they did go back to Turnbull (will never happen) will the luvies vote LNP?? I don't think so :^O

[topsidesoul]

If the Nileson Poll is support of your party, a minister will talk it up as showing they are right and their opposition is wrong.

If the Poll shows you are loosing, a minister will publically say that you should not read into these polls as they aren't credible.

Moral of this story is OP spends too much time looking at polls.

[freddie*rooster]

Oh yes of course you believe the rigged poll, but many don't. 😉

[izabsmiling]

Even if they did go back to Turnbull (will never happen) will the luvies vote LNP?? I don't think so

Do you think reading here would encourage them to ?

[topsidesoul]

Even if they did go back to Turnbull (will never happen) will the luvies vote LNP?? I don't think so

Do you think reading here would encourage them to ?

The vote was extremely close (Turnie lost by a single vote).

I do not see a challenge happening because Malcom has not been in the spotlight for months and the Labour party cannot even move to the middle.

Do you expect the Liberal party to move to the middle?

That being said, I would vote liberal if Malcom was leader.

I have read allot of what the gentlemen has to say, when he appeared on interviews he made his points with valid arguements I  and believe it all comes from him., as opposed to Abbot who cannot be bothered to vote on bills much less read a press release from BHP.

Meanwhile expect the newspapers to feature Rudd on another hundred front pages 'trying to take the leadership'.

[azureline**]

Personally, I would prtefer Malcolm as leader but.... I vote on policy and what my local member does, promises, fulfills......