Newspoll hasn’t just measured the fall of Labor, but the dying of the Greens. At the election, it won; 11.8 per cent of the vote. Now it’s at 9 - a quarter of its support gone.
Will Kevin Rudd be the last man standing?
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/the-last-man-standing-8230-20130603-2nm9l.html
Deputy Prime Minister Wayne Swan looks set to lose his Brisbane seat of Lilley, with internal polling suggesting Labor will struggle to retain any Queensland seats at the September 14 federal election.
In a result even worse than the 1996 ''baseball bats'' election, when Labor was reduced to two of the then 26 seats in Queensland, Labor may retain only one MP - former prime minister Kevin Rudd.
The Queensland polling, taken in recent weeks in Mr Swan's seat of Lilley, is believed to show Mr Swan's primary vote has collapsed to just 28 per cent, compared with 41 per cent at the last election.
Mr Swan has held the seat since 1998, although at the last election his margin narrowed from 8 per cent to 3.2 per cent, with a 10 per cent fall in his primary vote.
A senior Labor source told Fairfax that on the current polling Labor was likely to lose all of its remaining seats to the north of the Brisbane River, blaming animosity towards Prime Minister Julia Gillard.
The regional seat of Capricornia, held by a margin of 3.7 per cent, is seen as ''gone for all money''. Labor is also likely to lose the seats of Moreton, held by 1.1 per cent, Lilley, held by 3.2 per cent, and Petrie, held by 2.5 per cent.
According to the analysis, a best-case scenario is that Labor retains four of its Queensland seats, including Blair, Rankin, Oxley and Mr Rudd's seat of Griffith. Such a result would still be better than the outcome in 1996.
The big question, according to party strategists, is whether Labor will retain the seats of Blair, Oxley and Rankin. Only Griffith is seen as safe. A ''worst case'' is that Labor is left with one seat in Queensland
The poll shows voters are sticking with the Coalition as the September elections nears, with the opposition's primary vote improving three points to 49 per cent - a three-month high - compared with Labor's 30 per cent, down one point.
On a two-party preferred basis, the opposition holds a commanding 16-point lead - 58 per cent (up two points) to Labor's 42 per cent (down two points).
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