Liberal polling suggests a 10-seat win to them

[nero_bolt]

Liberal polling suggests a 10-seat win

(Me I am betting it will be more)

Latest odds..... LNP $1.40  Labor $3.00

 Andrew Bolt –,Friday, August, 02, 2013,(9:34am)

I don’t much trust “leaked” party polling. But here’s the latest:

LEAKED Coalition polling suggests ... it remains on course to win in 14 Labor-held seats, which include former Labor MP Craig Thomson’s electorate of Dobell.

The internal Coalition polling showed that three sitting Liberal National Party members in Queensland were behind their Labor opponents: the members for Forde (Bert van Manen), Bonner (Ross Vasta) and Brisbane (Teresa Gambaro).

If the Coalition wins the 14 Labor-held seats it is polling ahead of the government in, but loses the three LNP-held seats in which it trails, Tony Abbott would become prime minister with 86 seats in the House of Representatives, 10 more than he needs to form government. This scenario assumes that the Coalition wins the three independent-held seats of Lyne, New England and Fisher.

New Labor Party polling shows its most vulnerable seats under Julia Gillard are now “line-ball”, with a two-party-preferred vote at 48 per cent, and strategists said the Rudd government could win “anywhere between no seats and six” from the LNP.

A senior LNP strategist said the campaign was now about defending the Coalition’s more marginal seats amid hopes of snagging at least two Labor-held seats, Moreton (1.2 per cent) and Petrie (2.6 per cent), as well as the Sunshine Coast seat of Fisher, held by LNP defector Peter Slipper…

The biggest gains for the opposition according to the leaked internal Coalition polling are in NSW, where it continues to lead the government in five Labor-held seats (Banks, Parramatta, Greenway, Lindsay and Reid) as well as Dobell. In Tasmania, the Liberals are tracking for victories in Braddon and Bass, however, a Liberal source said the size of the leads had “worryingly slipped”.

The Coalition is also on track to pick up frontbencher Warren Snowdon’s seat of Lingiari in the Northern Territory, the South Australian seat of Hindmarsh and the Victorian electorates of Deakin, La Trobe and Corangamite.

But there seems to me a lack of traction in the Liberal campaign, as if Tony Abbott has not yet begun to fight. Part of this is no doubt due to Rudd sucking the oxygen from the room, and part from the Liberals needing to get his measure. The Liberals also can’t risk announcing policies now, when Rudd is perfectly free to steal what he finds convenient.

Abbott also is being hampered by his great caution - notably a tendency to speak in clearly scripted sound grabs which, set beside Rudd’s free-wheeling rhetoric, make him seem limited and lacking confidence. Not prime ministerial. He will have to shift the angle of light so that he seems tough and dependable instead. (A small suggestion here: smile with mouth closed, please.)

That said, the campaign will be a great leveler. Abbott will get a bigger share of the spotlight, and will be able to - or will have to - talk more about policies, not least the economy. Much depends on what work he and his shadow ministers have done. But the experience of the last campaign shows that Abbott is a better campaigner than many tend to give him credit for, although he will this time have to demonstrate more fluidity and facility, not least in debate.

I’d put Abbott just ahead of Rudd, with the campaign to decide the outcome.

Key points for the Liberals:

- To make clear the election is not just a judgment between competing promises, but also a judgment of Labor’s past performance. There has to be an accounting for the catastrophic errors in the Budget management and boat people policy in particular. We can’t have people escape punishment for such incompetence. What’s more, a party’s past tells us best what to expect in the future.

- Allied to that, the Liberals must make clear this isn’t about Kevin Rudd or the Rudd Government. It isn’t about a Prime Minister who leads a government just one month old. It is about Labor - the party in power for the past chaotic six years. The Liberals need to talk a bit less about Kevin Rudd and a lot, lot more about Labor. Kevin Rudd is merely the temporary leader of the Labor Party that produced years of deficits and waste, two prime ministers it had to sack, a boat people catastrophe, corruption scandals and a carbon tax that’s being switched next year to a carbon price the Budget projects will soar to $38. Labor did that. Rudd is just its latest salesman.

[lakeland27]

 gee , the libs polled themselves and decide they will win .  they should look at the rest of the polls who say 'well no, you aint at this stage'

[lakeland27]

Remember karl Rove on election night on Fox ? he believed his own figures.

[lakeland27]

this reverse flip indicates panic

The Coalition has announced a turnaround in its support for the Federal Government's so-called "Gonski" school funding plan.

Opposition Leader Tony Abbott says if the Coalition wins government, it will honour Labor's funding commitments across the four years of the budget forward estimates.

Previously, he had promised only to guarantee any deals Labor struck for the first year.

Mr Abbott says the decision will help schools plan for the future.

"As far as school funding is concerned, Kevin Rudd and I are on a unity ticket," Mr Abbott announced this morning.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-02/coalition-to-support-gonski-school-funding/4861102

as well as being a face -saver (he's under pressure from the remaining lib premiers who badly want to sign on)

[pct001wine]

Suggesting they might roll Steve Georganas (Hindmarsh (SA)) is a bit rich.  He's doing well, and he took it last time 45%/39% Primary, 56%/44% TCP.

My internal polling (I asked my cat and my budgie - I still don't know who leaked it to the media, I'm thinking the budgie) suggests Labor will hold Hindmarsh.

[pct001wine]

Isn't it nice of Bolty to offer Tones a few hints about how to beat the Labor Menace ?   Is he on staff ?  Maybe he wants to get closer to Peta   

[the_great_she_elephant]

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@lakeland27 wrote:

this reverse flip indicates panic

The Coalition has announced a turnaround in its support for the Federal Government's so-called "Gonski" school funding plan.

Opposition Leader Tony Abbott says if the Coalition wins government, it will honour Labor's funding commitments across the four years of the budget forward estimates.

Previously, he had promised only to guarantee any deals Labor struck for the first year.

Mr Abbott says the decision will help schools plan for the future.

"As far as school funding is concerned, Kevin Rudd and I are on a unity ticket," Mr Abbott announced this morning.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-02/coalition-to-support-gonski-school-funding/4861102

as well as being a face -saver (he's under pressure from the remaining lib premiers who badly want to sign on)

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Well, hallelluia! Now our glorious leader over here in the West can stick his dummy back in his mouth and sign up. Knowing his habitual sanguinary-mindedness though, I bet he'll wait til after the election do do it.