Richo: Gillard will destroy Labor
Graham Richardson warns that if Julia Gillard stays, she will lead Labor to near destruction:
A loss of between of between 30 and 40 seats is on the cards, a slaughter of epic proportions. It would take Labor a decade to recover… The next generation of political Labor leaders, with the exception of Bill Shorten, would all be gone.
You would be entitled to wonder just how much the Labor Party can take… Given that a budget must be prepared by May which must deliver $15 billion of cuts just to allow for the NDIS and the Gonski reforms, the political pain would be immense.
There is a real chance that there won’t be much left of the modern Labor Party at the end of her reign....
She could ditch the NDIS and Gonski legacy she has been determined to leave behind as a permanent reminder of her prime ministership.
That would at least give Wayne Swan some chance of preparing a budget that won’t destroy a party he has served all his working life.
Most likely though, she will hang on and try to tough it out… This would mean that the legacy Gillard leaves behind would be the near destruction of the modern Labor Party.
http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/andrewbolt/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/richo_gillard_will_destroy_labor/
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As the full article from Richo is behind a paywall I will paste it below.
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http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/pm-should-go-for-partys-sake/story-e6frg6n6-1226583039910
LOVE her or hate her, you would have to feel some sympathy for Julia Gillard. Virtually every policy she announces is bucketed and rejected by all and sundry.
Every press conference is dominated by questions about her leadership. Every poll result is another knife through her heart. The political judgments the Prime Minister makes are mostly rubbished by friend and foe alike. Good news is hard to find.
How she must dread the first few moments of the morning as she begins to focus. I can hear her barking at the first bloke the order not to turn on the radio or the television. No news is the best news she can get.
She knows Newspoll is coming early next week. It is a publication she dreads because she knows every member of her caucus is waiting for it.
If the next Newspoll confirms the dreadful numbers produced by Nielsen, she knows her time in the top job may well be cruelly shortened - no pun intended! She has not lost the numbers to Kevin Rudd yet but the number of doubtfuls is growing by the minute.
The more her trusted cabinet ministers ring caucus members and senior party officials to assure them that there is no movement in caucus, and that all is well, the more the air of panic pervades the small world that is the caucus.
Politics is a brutal game and it is not for the faint-hearted. Gillard is as tough as they come, as tough as I have ever seen. That toughness is now being sorely tested and the turmoil in her head would be something to behold.
Looking to her cabinet for rock solid support would be a forlorn exercise. Ever since the debacle of the debate over whether or not to support Palestinians having observer status at UN, she has not been able to stop looking over her shoulder. Only two cabinet members were with her. One by one the rest told her of their dismay or even disgust at the stance she was taking.
Had she not backed off within seconds of the bells tolling for the midnight hour she would not have survived that December day.
Since then the announcement of the world's longest election campaign didn't help her cause. Then last week out of a clear blue sky she announces a billion dollar program to make Australian companies "consider" using Australian made goods. Yes, that's right, consider. No compulsion, just lots of money to make business think about it. Since then a huge question mark has arisen over the method of funding for this cool billion.
The Greens have walked out on her as well. Christine Milne is showing all the signs of this becoming one of those infamously vicious divorces. Who knows what the Greens will choose to endorse when legislation is brought forward to the Senate. Already the aforementioned billion dollar program is under threat and a hostile Senate is the last thing a desperate PM trying to demonstrate stability really needs. It is hard to imagine the government was getting worse but that now appears to be a certainty.
None of the options available to the PM for her immediate future is particularly appealing to either her or for the party. Despite the stoic defiance that she exudes, somewhere in the darkest recess of her mind reality must have a place. There must be times when she considers just what will happen to the Labor Party if she clings to the leadership and the polls are proved to be right.
A loss of between of between 30 and 40 seats is on the cards, a slaughter of epic proportions. It would take Labor a decade to recover from that and given how much worse the situation is in NSW and Queensland, large chunks of the talent pool would go as well. The next generation of political Labor leaders, with the exception of Bill Shorten, would all be gone.
You would be entitled to wonder just how much the Labor Party can take. If a federal election produced a result anything like the NSW and Queensland state massacres morale would be at rock bottom, as would membership. Given that a budget must be prepared by May which must deliver $15 billion of cuts just to allow for the NDIS and the Gonski reforms, the political pain would be immense. There is a real chance that there won't be much left of the modern Labor Party at the end of her reign.
She could of course run up a white flag, give Kevin a big hug and resign for the good of the party. Given her demeanour, character and reputation I just can't see that happening. She could ditch the NDIS and Gonski legacy she has been determined to leave behind as a permanent reminder of her prime ministership. That would at least give Wayne Swan some chance of preparing a budget that won't destroy a party he has served all his working life.
Most likely though, she will hang on and try to tough it out. With all those who hate Rudd clustered around her in praetorian guard formation, a confused, conflicted caucus might acquiesce to her survival. Numbers have been hard to come by for the Rudd team.
This would mean that the legacy Gillard leaves behind would be the near destruction of the modern Labor Party.
That is how bad I believe Labor's position has become.
Some of the PM's backers are among my closest friends and this column may well strain those relationships.
It would be worth the price to see Labor back in the game, being taking seriously, and a force for good in Australian politics.
Graham Richardson hosts Richo on Sky News at 8pm on Wednesdays.
