Labor thought a couple of weeks ago that Dobell would be retained, but the swing now is on:
Labor support in the seats of Robertson and Dobell has fallen seven percentage points since the 2010 election on a two-party-preferred basis, which would put Liberal MPs into both seats.
If the swing in the two marginal electorates were repeated in other NSW marginal Labor seats, it would be catastrophic for the Rudd government, handing the opposition up to seven other seats, not including New England and Lyne…
According to a Newspoll survey, conducted exclusively for The Australian in Dobell and Robertson last weekend, Labor’s primary vote was 35 per cent, eight percentage points down from the 2010 election, and the Coalition primary support was 50 per cent, up eight points since the last election. On a two-party-preferred basis, based on preference flows at the 2010 election, Labor’s support is down seven points to 46 per cent and the Coalition’s is up seven points to 54 per cent.
Graham Richardson:
Somebody has surgically removed any skerrick of belief, passion or vision [from Rudd]… If ever Rudd was a great campaigner, it appears that this talent has well and truly deserted him…
Labor’s campaign in the second week was just as rudderless as it was in the first. No one appears to understand that there is ground to be made up. There does not appear to be anyone capable of telling Rudd that the problem is him. It cannot be easy to manage a confident player who has lost his confidence…
At the start of this long march, my view was Labor would lose 10 seats. That view is now looking optimistic. If some fire and energy from the Rudd campaign does not manifest itself immediately it will be little consolation for Rudd to claim he “only lost 20 when Gillard would have lost 40”. On September 7 the prize for coming second is irrelevance.
The Liberals prepare to strike:
The Liberals will launch their real campaign this Sunday.
“It will make the Blitzkrieg look like a picnic,” says one senior Liberal of the advertising campaign that is about to be unleashed reminding voters of how dysfunctional the past three years has been - and the three years prior to that.
“You ain’t seen nothing yet,” they said.
The timing is strategic.
So far, Abbott has been restrained in his attacks on Rudd. Labor’s accusations of negativity factor have resonated. Abbott is mindful that when Rudd was popular, attacking him personally jarred with voters.
But that is all beginning to change.
Newspoll: 54-46 to Liberal in Robertson and Dobell
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2013/08/16/newspoll-54-to-46-to-liberal-in-robertson-and-dobe...
