The smart money on Abbott to win Lodge

[nero_bolt]

A SWAG of federal Labor seats would fall in NSW at the upcoming election, putting Tony Abbott into office with a comfortable margin.

That is the conclusion of analysts at gaming firm Sportsbet, which has just released its 2013 election odds - seat-by-seat.

Forget the opinion polls, it is often said that if you want to assess the true political situation ahead of an election, ask a bookmaker.

And the odds put out by Sportsbet on the 150 seats in the house of representatives would lead to 91 seats to Tony Abbott's Coalition and 54 to Labor - down from its current 72 - with three electorates "too close to call".

Of the 19 seats Mr Abbott is tipped to pick up, 11 are in NSW, showing how the ICAC and the HSU scandal is expected to impact here.

But the prediction is that few ministers will lose their seats, with Treasurer Wayne Swan - who survives in Lilley by just a 3 per cent margin - the narrow favourite at $1.85 to hang on to his seat.

In Sydney, betting predictions are that assistant treasurer David Bradbury is odds on to lose in Lindsay, paying $3.50, and other seats set to fall would include Parramatta, Reid, Banks, Greenway, Robertson and Dobell

Another seat Labor is predicted to lose is Page on the far north coast.

Schools Minister Peter Garrett is tipped to hang on in Kingsford Smith, despite having only a 5 per cent margin, but Mike Kelly is odds on to lose his bellwether seat of Eden Monaro.

In the overall election winner market, the Coalition are the $1.35 favourites, with Labor the $3.30 outsiders.

Three in every four bets taken since betting opened after the 2010 federal election have been for the Coalition, a Sportsbet spokesman said.

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/the-smart-money-on-abbott-to-win-lodge/story-e6freuy9-1226563760009

[not_an_eloi]

when dodgy abbott is forced to comes clean and admit 'is plans (for gst reform and ruthless cuts to spendin', f'r'instance)  polls will tell a totally diffo. story 

[lakeland27]

 the ''smart money'' just pulled its head back in 🙂

[freakiness]

woohoo, way to go PM!

smart money gambling is sort of an oxymoron   :^O

[donnashuggy]

[lakeland27]

yep, the carbon tax saga may haunt abbott for quite a while. there has been a large overestimation of the cost of the tax from business too it seems. most rational pundits think he won't repeal the tax either.. he will more likely re-name it.

''"If Australia is greatly to reduce its carbon emissions, the price of carbon intensive products should rise." (tony abbott 2009)

The 2009-Abbott-as-policy-thinker, of course, was stating the bleeding obvious. The responsiveness of demand to price increases is a foundation of economics. As 2009-Abbott noted, the straightforward way to reduce the use of carbon-intensive products is to make them more expensive. And he was aware of the incongruity of a Liberal proposing a new tax:

"The Coalition has always been instinctively cautious about new or increased taxes. That’s one of the reasons why the former government opted for an emissions trading scheme over a straight-forward carbon tax. Still, a new tax would be the intelligent skeptic’s way to deal with minimising emissions because it would be much easier than a property right to reduce or to abolish should the justification for it change." (bernard keane)

[kayza40]

As a swinging voter I will be voting for Labour this time around.  I voted for Howard every time he was up except for the last time, all based on his policies and a certain amount of personality, both of which tends to sway my vote. 

[catsnknots]

Co2 tax hurts... 

A company has been flooded out for the second time in 2 years... they spent millions on repairs last time... invested in a new barge to move the cane over the river... Invested in a furnace that could burn the cane wastes to help reduce their costs by using their own waste and also to reduce carbon emissions... 

Well the repairs are now ruined.. the barge broke it line and was washed out to sea and the cane waste has all been washed away... 

now they not only need to repair all the damage again and try to find the barge but because all the cane waste is lost they will have to use coal... and that means a massive CO2 tax...

Thanks Gillard... 

[sniper_patrol]

cats_back............. You're blaming Ms Gillard for the floods.?

[lakeland27]

so gillard was behind all of that water ?

[cueperkins]

That leaves Blabbott responsible for all the Hot Air...?....lol