The smart money on Abbott to win Lodge

[nero_bolt]

A SWAG of federal Labor seats would fall in NSW at the upcoming election, putting Tony Abbott into office with a comfortable margin.

That is the conclusion of analysts at gaming firm Sportsbet, which has just released its 2013 election odds - seat-by-seat.

Forget the opinion polls, it is often said that if you want to assess the true political situation ahead of an election, ask a bookmaker.

And the odds put out by Sportsbet on the 150 seats in the house of representatives would lead to 91 seats to Tony Abbott's Coalition and 54 to Labor - down from its current 72 - with three electorates "too close to call".

Of the 19 seats Mr Abbott is tipped to pick up, 11 are in NSW, showing how the ICAC and the HSU scandal is expected to impact here.

But the prediction is that few ministers will lose their seats, with Treasurer Wayne Swan - who survives in Lilley by just a 3 per cent margin - the narrow favourite at $1.85 to hang on to his seat.

In Sydney, betting predictions are that assistant treasurer David Bradbury is odds on to lose in Lindsay, paying $3.50, and other seats set to fall would include Parramatta, Reid, Banks, Greenway, Robertson and Dobell

Another seat Labor is predicted to lose is Page on the far north coast.

Schools Minister Peter Garrett is tipped to hang on in Kingsford Smith, despite having only a 5 per cent margin, but Mike Kelly is odds on to lose his bellwether seat of Eden Monaro.

In the overall election winner market, the Coalition are the $1.35 favourites, with Labor the $3.30 outsiders.

Three in every four bets taken since betting opened after the 2010 federal election have been for the Coalition, a Sportsbet spokesman said.

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/the-smart-money-on-abbott-to-win-lodge/story-e6freuy9-1226563760009

[vampire-teddy]

the labor party may win seats in qld if people look at our local state Lib government which is destroying this state and takes us back to the lovely corrupt Jo era.  I have doubts if Tony will even lead the libs into the election, they may go for someone more personally popular.  I also think that the Labour partu should go for someone else.

[lakeland27]

well we all know what mugs punters are.. :^O

[azureline**]

I wonder how Mr Newman's actions will reflect on the election? I notice he does not seem to have the same prescence as Bligh did after the 2011 flood.

[nero_bolt]

The latest two polls suggest the narrative Labor’s spinners have built of a Gillard comeback is just more hot air:

Essential Media: Labor 46, Coalition 54.

http://essentialvision.com.au/category/essentialreport 

JWS Research (poll of more marginal seats): Labor 45.1, Coalition 54.9.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-01-29/labor-could-lose-18-seats3a-poll/4488670

[silverfaun]

"Bring it on"  as said by Ms Gillard to Abbott in parliament.

Can't come quick enough.

[freakiness]

I wonder how Mr Newman's actions will reflect on the election? I notice he does not seem to have the same presence as Bligh did after the 2011 flood.

I thought the same when I saw him this morning.

[silverfaun]

Hey up Nero, you're posting stuff the Lab Luvvies hate.:^O

[azureline**]

I love Labs, furry and cute!

[lakeland27]

Hey up Nero, you're posting stuff the Lab Luvvies hate.:^O

 its hard to hate posts you ignore 🙂