survey regarding new "Guaranteed Arrival" time program

[lm-entertainment]

hi everyone. i'm not sure how many sellers received an offer to participate in a seller survey regarding shipping recently - but i thought i'd take a look at it.

was shocked initially to see that ebay are looking at trialling a "guaranteed arrival" program - where sellers state the timeframe that items will be delivered in to the buyer.

if these conditions are not met, the buyer is entitled to return the item for free with a full refund or the seller has to give them some financial compensation.

i soon realised i shouldn't have been surprised that ebay is again making the marketplace one that suits buyers and not sellers.

i thought "well, there won't be any harm in not participating in the program" - but it also says that sellers who do participate will get enhanced visual treatment in search, item detail and all other buying pages - meaning those who don't participate will be penalised. 

i've attached screenshots of the two pages of text in the survey regarding this program if anyone wants to have a look. have no doubt it'll be implemented soon.

[digital*ghost]

I guess it might depend on how popular guaranteed delivery items will be, if they sell more frequently, they will go higher in BM rankings, and buyers who show a preference for guaranteed delivery should - due to Cassini - see more of them than those who don't. I also suspect that the promotion for this is going to be a bit different than how eBay promote things like free post to buyers, so there is likely to be other ways sellers will have increased exposure if they offer it. That may go the same way as 'Premium Services', where it's just a logo most don't pay any mind to, or it could become an important differentiating factor that purchase decisions are based upon. People pay for Prime for a lot of different reasons, speed of delivery on non-essential items is just one of them, but it's a major one (for the buyer). 

You'd probably never see a banner heading on search results saying 'Need free post? view all items with free post...' (like how they currently have a banner link to Aussie sellers, sometimes with a percentage off code), but I can see them having a banner saying 'Need it fast?'. (I do actually use the free post filter at times, even though it's not usually something I consider on the vast majority of purchases, eg when I'm using a discount code, a free post item can work out cheaper than others, it skews stats and such, but it can make a significant difference to the end price on large items). 

I know I'm thinking ahead about things that may or may not be involved in how this will work, but with limited info from eBay and market results to go on, my habit is to ponder all the possibilities (and usually rest on the worst case scenarios until proven otherwise   ). 

[gec2002]

Just a few slight editorial changes to your answer.

"If it is implemented, and in the same way as they are proposing it on the US site, you have to opt in to guaranteed delivery, so it's not something that's mandatory for all sellers YET, and sellers who do opt in don't have to have it on all of their items YET, they could have it on just one or two if they wanted at the moment."

On how it will impact impressions etc, as brerrabbit585 said eBay intend to use a filter.  That means only Guaranteed Arrival items will show and buyers who use the filter are more likely to purchased from those sellers.  A major factor with Cassini is the number of sales and impressions, so indirectly those extra sales for sellers using  the Guaranteed Arrival will better place them on Best Match, even when buyers are searching without the filter, at the expense of those sellers not offering it.

[digital*ghost]

I don't think they will ever make it mandatory. (If I have to eat those words, so help me..  ).

I think it's a greater possibility it would become a factor in acheiving something like TRS, or in other words it will be "strongly encouraged" (in typical 'strong arm' fashion), but unless they make tracking mandatory, they couldn't make this mandatory. 

[brerrabbit585]

If they ever make it mandatory then for a lot of us it just wouldn't be worth selling any more. I can't see it ever being made mandatory, any more than free postage or tracking will be. Too many sellers don't use tracking or free post for them to make it compulsory. One lives in hope that someone at the top still has a few grey cells that are working...

In some categories guaranteed delivery will have very little effect because it's just not viable to charge for tracked delivery. Charging for reg'd post or parcel rates when an item could be posted for $2 would be a very effective way to stop sales and most sellers aren't stupid enough to do it.

[brerrabbit585]

I can't help analysing a lot of things but I'm learning to ignore things that don't affect me and that I can't change anyway.

[brerrabbit585]

digi, it's interesting what you say about it possibly being linked to TRS and the like in the future.  I just had a look at my seller dashboard and noticed a "notification", which I've never seen before.  I clicked on it and there's a notification about US sellers having to upload tracking numbers on 95% of their US transactions to qualify for TRS.  Why they think I need to know about conditions for US sellers is beyond me.  Yes, I was signed in to the AU site.

We're making some changes to the US eBay Top Rated Seller policy, effective 20 Jun, 2017. Here's what you need to know:

• In the US, sellers must upload tracking on time and get a scan from the courier on 95% of their US transactions.
• In order to qualify for the Top Rated Seller grace period in the US, sellers must now meet the tracking requirements on at least 90% of their US transactions.

[merfar2107]

Yes I have that too. plus this extra line:

Also, starting 01 May, 2017, final value fee discounts for US Top Rated Plus transactions will be 10%.

[gec2002]

Unfortunately I have been on eBay for a long time and very little surprises me.  The common Community Wisdom used to be that eBay could never charge fees on postage as it was against Australian Law. 

This is one of the few changes that eBay will have some skin in the game, as they pickup the tab if seller opts for handling time option and meets it but item is late.  If that happens too many times you can be sure the cost will be passed on in some form or other.  Also would like to know what value is the coupons that eBay will offering for those using free post and failing to meet delivery times?

[jfmgray]

Many Australian sellers also ship top the USA and are eligible for TRS status on the US site, thus the notification.

[digital*ghost]

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@brerrabbit585 wrote:

digi, it's interesting what you say about it possibly being linked to TRS and the like in the future.  I just had a look at my seller dashboard and noticed a "notification", which I've never seen before.  I clicked on it and there's a notification about US sellers having to upload tracking numbers on 95% of their US transactions to qualify for TRS.  

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This is actually a (relatively) minor change for US sellers, as they've had to upload tracking for 90% of orders to qualify for TRS for a number of years, and I think the fee discount has also been reduced, so for those on the US site, it's become a little bit harder to get, and not as much (financial) benefit to maintain as it was before. On the flip side, while we have significantly higher insertion fees (if paid for) and no TRS discounts, our FVFs are - on average - lower here (there's more store options in the US, but no tiered pricing between them). 

So far, eBay has not introduced this requirement here, possibly due to the high number of letter rate items and the large gap between pricing for tracked and untracked letters (I think the gap for compartitive services in the US is less than $2). That could also mean the options provided to sellers if/when the guaranteed delivery times comes here, will differ to the options proposed in the US - perhaps we may not get the option where eBay foots the bill at all (that, sadly, would not surprise me).

I tend to approach these kind of things with as much detached objectivity as I can, even if it doesn't seem like it. I view eBay as an ecosystem, and generally place equal importance on the little guys and the 'big fish'. When I look at it in terms of eBay's long term survival and what I think is required to allow the site to thrive, I feel some things tip the balance too much, which affects the site as a whole, as they tend to feed 'apex predators' at the expense of the rest of us (if you will, in keeping with the ecosystem analogy - the constant discount codes for large sellers is one of the better examples of that), so when I think about and discuss all the angles, it's from that perspective and doesn't generally include or allude to how I will approach or handle the changes when it comes to my own store. 

If I'm to be 100% honest, on the one had I find it disconcerting any time eBay introduces something that (potentially) advantages larger businesses, but I may be seeing it that way because I tend to think they're the ones that are in a better position to guarantee delivery times, can afford to take some hits on supporting / particpating in eBay's ideas and schemes, and / or who won't care about the percentage of buyers who ultimately have a perceived dissatisying experience due to their eBay-created expectations not being met; but on the other hand, I would actually consider having this on a listing or two, if the ETAs were reasonable. (I sell some stuff that is available for immediate dispatch and would be suitable for gifts, could have express post as the default method without a huge increase in pricing should that be necessary, so if I can get even just a little increased exposure that way, I'd try it out, despite my misgivings for the whole compensation side of it). 

@gec2002 - I fully understand that, eBay can still shock me with some of their decisions (particularly on the 'outrage' end of the shock spectrum), but even if something they do is unexpected, I generally don't find it surprising. Not anymore, anyway- that trust, or innocence, or whatever it may have been, in their motives and ethics, was lost a long time ago. 

Apparently if a 'late' item was free post, buyers will be eligible for a $5 voucher. I suspect for sellers who opt into the second option, where eBay pays out, those aspects will be of less concern than the free returns part, I wouldn't expect a huge increase in returns as items would have to be 'late' before that's an option, but obviously a seller who doesn't want to accept change of mind returns shouldn't opt in to this scheme.