Here's another news.com story before I go home:
CLIMATE change is confusing. It's either the end of the world and we're all going to die. Or it's an overblown threat involving "warmists" and the "IPCC".
If you feel like you don't fully understand what's going on, you're not alone.
Plenty of people have an opinion on what is happening. But what are the facts and how does it affect you?
1. WHAT IS CLIMATE CHANGE?
Climate change is global warming. The two are the same thing. It is the world getting hotter.
No one doubts it is happening. The last decade, 2000 to 2010, was the hottest on record. The big controversy is about what is causing it.
2. RIGHT. BUT DID HUMANS CAUSE IT?
Yes. But it's understandable if you're not convinced. Plenty of people don't believe it. And sceptics have plenty of questions: What if the solar flares make the world hot? Doesn't the climate always change? Isn't it a good thing?
All of these have serious answers from very smart people. You can find these busted myths at the bottom of this piece.
But you do need to know one small statistic: 95 per cent.
That's how certain the United Nations climate science panel is that climate change is manmade.
3. REMIND ME HOW IT WORKS
Science boffins named John Tyndall and Svante Arrhenius figured out how it works in the late 19th century. It's simple. Basically:
Heat + Manmade gases that keep heat = Hot Earth
Global warming is caused by so-called "greenhouse gases". The gases, such as carbon dioxide, absorb heat and keep the planet warm enough for us to live on.
But humans - and yes, cows farting - have added so many tonnes of it into the atmosphere over the past hundred years that it has warmed up the planet.
4. SO IT WILL BE REALLY HOT?
Our summers are already getting longer by a day or two each decade, heatwave expert Sarah Perkins told news.com.au. Heatwaves are becoming increasingly common in the cooler months.
Then there's the kicker. By 2070, Australia is expected to warm between 1.0 to 5 degrees Celsius, according to the CSIRO.
It's the difference between a cool day and a scorcher where you melt into a little puddle.
5. SO HOT IT CAUSES BUSHFIRES?
It's difficult to say. Arsonists cause fires. So do lit cigarettes, dry conditions and the high fuel load of bushland.
But heatwaves and predicted drier conditions in southern Australia can help create the conditions where bushfires are more likely to happen, heatwave expert Sarah Perkins told news.com.au.
6. WHAT ABOUT SEA LEVELS?
On average the nation will experience a 300-fold increase in "flooding events" by the year 2100, according to a report released by Australia's Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre. That means one-in-a-hundred year floods will become considerably more common.
(not a real picture)
7. AT LEAST YOU DON'T LIVE HERE
We are actually lucky compared to the poor folk of the small nation of Tuvalu, found halfway between Australia and Hawaii.
It's easily one of the countries that will suffer the most. Much of the country could be flooded.
"This is a 'life or death' survival issue for Tuvalu," the country's now leader, Enele Sopoaga, pleaded with the world in 2010.
The entire population of the tiny chain of nine Pacific Islands lives under 2m above sea level. As you can see.
The global average sea level could rise by a metre by the end of the century if emissions remain high. If they are lower, levels could rise between 28cm and 60cm.
They have it tough enough already when a cyclone hits. "There are no mountains to climb, no inland to run to. Of course, there are coconut trees," Mr Sopoaga said.
Another low-lying nation, the Maldives, has reportedly weighed up moving its population to Australia.
8. THE GOOD NEWS ... AND THE ACID NEWS
Finally. Some good news from this global warming mess. More time at the beach for you!
You're in luck if you live on the east coast of Australia and find the ocean too cold most of the time. The water's getting warmer much quicker than the rest of the ocean.
Sucks if you live in the ocean though. The warmer currents will disrupt how tropical fish move around, oceanographer Erik Van Sebille from UNSW's Climate Systems Science Centre said.
Meanwhile, the oceans are becoming more acidic as well. The oceans absorb around 30 per cent of the carbon dioxide humans have emitted into the atmosphere.
9. WHERE DOES IT END?
A "tipping point" means we can't go back. The Earth's climate would have changed in a way that's irreversible. At least for thousands of years.
Scientists want to keep the temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius or less, otherwise the IPCC warns we will see "catastrophic" damage.
To prevent that, the international community including the world's biggest polluters, the US and China, needs to sign a deal to slash emissions.
10. CAN I DO SOMETHING?
At the end of the day, you're just a small fish in a big blue pond hurtling through space.
There are little things you can do, especially recycling and switching off that power-guzzling air conditioner. Ultimately, the most powerful tool you have is your right to vote.
Click Here To Read Entire Article
Gotta go back later
SRBA: " who do think created the graph I posted MM...*rolls eyes* " Apart from the selected time period and added nonsense century period extrapolation:
Source: ftp://ftp.ssmi.com/msu/monthly_time_series/rss_monthly_msu_amsu_channel_tlt_anomalies_land_and_ocean...
SRBA: "Now, prove that the temperature change, is not just a natural variation....." As I have stated many times before SRBA you have no concept whatsoever of the Scientific Method: Scientific measurements can only disprove theories or be consistent with them. Any theory that is consistent with measurements could be disproved by a future measurement.
SN, I am not really comfortable with forecasts shown within your graph, even though the extrapolation is scientifically "acceptable", unlike SRBA's where a carefully selected time period of 202 months with a hot start is extrapolated to 1200 months.
I prefer the graph below, and then by applying atmospheric physics and science a probability (factor) of a causality between anthropogenic GHG and global atmospheric temperatures will result.
nɥºɾ
".. We are now at the point in the age of global warming hysteria where the IPCC global warming theory has crashed into the
hard reality of observations.
A few of us are not that surprised, as we always distrusted the level of faith that climate modelers had in their understanding of
the causes of climate change.
I continue to suspect that, in the coming years, scientists will increasingly realize that more CO2 in the atmosphere is, on the
whole, good for life on Earth. Given that CO2 is necessary for life, and that nature continues to gobble up 50% of the CO2 we
produce as fast as we can produce it, I won’t be that surprised when that paradigm shift occurs, either..." Dr Roy Spencer...
Then I will quote Dr Roy Spencer again......
Lately I have had a chuckle or two, even a guffaw, but I do miss our resident "giggle" posterer.
So, as I find science/engineering far more interesting than partisan political waffle, I do wonder what the giggler(s) are now using for a starting date apropos their much overused: "the globe has not warmed for 17 years and 4 days".
"The year 2007 tied for second warmest in the period of instrumental data, behind the record warmth of 2005, in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) analysis. 2007 tied 1998, which had leapt a remarkable 0.2°C above the prior record with the help of the "El Niño of the century". The unusual warmth in 2007 is noteworthy because it occurs at a time when solar irradiance is at a minimum and the equatorial Pacific Ocean is in the cool phase of its natural El Niño-La Niña cycle."
As for Australia and our excellent BOM:
2014 was Australia's third-warmest year since national temperature observations commenced in 1910. Following Australia's warmest year on record in 2013, both maximum and minimum temperatures remained well above average
Seven of Australia's ten warmest years on record have occurred in the 13 years from 2002, with one cooler-than-average year in the past decade: 2011. The 10-year mean temperature for 2005–2014 was 0.55 °C above average, the highest on record.
Of course a graph:
Looks like the favourite El Niño year of 1998 is no longer in vogue, chuckle.
