Australia Hit Hardest With Climate Change

[icyfroth]

Australia’s surface air temperature has already increased 0.9C since 1910, with the number of extreme heat records outnumbering extreme cool records nearly three to one since 2001.

Australia experienced its third-warmest year on record in 2014, with 2013 its warmest year on record. The heat experienced in 2013 was “unlikely” to have been caused by natural variability alone, the report stated, with such temperatures now five times more likely due to humans releasing greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

Other findings of the wide-ranging analysis, the first such Australian climate projection made since 2007, included:

• The interior of Australia is set to warm more rapidly than coastal areas. Alice Springs will experience an average of 83 days a year over 40C in 2090, up from just 17 in 1995.

• Melbourne will swelter through an average of 24 days above 35C by 2090, up from 11 in 1995. Sydney will experience 11 days above 35C by 2090, an increase from three days in 1995.

• Australia is on course for a sea level rise of 45cm to 82cm by 2090, if emissions are not curbed. The report warned that if the Antarctic ice sheet was to collapse, sea levels would be a further “several tenths of a metre higher by late in the century”.

• Extreme rainfall events will increase but overall rainfall is expected to drop in southern Australia, apart from Tasmania, during the winter and spring months – by as much as 69% by 2090.

• There will be more extreme droughts, with the length of droughts increasing by between 5% and 20%, depending on how quickly greenhouse gases are cut.

• Rising temperatures will result in a “greater number of days with severe fire danger”. Meanwhile, soil moisture will fall by up to 15% in southern Australia in the winter months by 2090.

• Snow cover will decline, with the report stating there was “high confidence that as warming progresses there will be very substantial decreases in snowfall, increase in melt and thus reduced snow cover”.

Kevin Hennessy, a principal research scientist at the CSIRO, said it and the Bureau of Meteorology now had a greater confidence than ever in their forecasts of Australia’s climate.

“We expect land areas to warm faster than ocean areas, and polar regions faster than the tropics,” Hennessy told Guardian Australia.

Given Australia’s geographical position, that would mean much of the country was expected to warm faster than the global average.

“Australia will warm faster than the rest of the world,” Hennessy said. “Warming of 4C to 5C would have a very significant effect: there would be increases in extremely high temperatures, much less snow, more intense rainfall, more fires and rapid sea level rises.”

Entire Article Here

What with rampaging deforestation, chemical run off and industrial emissions and pollutant, I have every reason to believe it. Especially with the freak storms and extreme heat we've been experiencing over the last decade or so.

[siggie-reported-by-alarmists]

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@vicr3000 wrote:
"If the deniers are wrong, the future generations will struggle to survive."

You cant prove that, it is scare mongering, not backed up by anything except a crystal ball.

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    It's just the thoughts of people who are terrified of change.....modern man has adapted through 200 000 years of change.

    Some are just hysterical and alarmed........others not so much.

[poddster]

I tend to think that the calculations that have been used in determining sea level rise are in error.

Ice that is water borne will no raise the sea level even one centimeter.

Ice that is on land mass will. If yo calculate the volume of ice on Antarctica and add that to the volume of water in the oceans that will determine the change in level.

You cam forget the arctic ice , that is water borne.

Try it yourselves some time but an ice block in a bucket and fill the bucket with water so that the ice floats then fill it to the brim and see if it overflows once the ice melts

Basic science folks 🙂

[vicr3000]

Siggie

Exactly.

The world and man kind has survived ice ages, floods, volcanoes that blotted out the sun for years.

We will survive.

[this-one-time-at-bandcamp]

  It's just the thoughts of people who are terrified of change.....modern man has adapted through 200 000 years of change.

    Some are just hysterical and alarmed........others not so much.

I didn't realize that modern man existed 200 millenia ago .....Oh, you're talking about  hunter-gatherer hominids, not someone capable of starting a chain saw to denude the forests of South America and Indonesia.........then there's the fact that even 200 years ago,  there were only a billion humans populating the earth, much easier to find food, whether you gather it or hunt it.   Today there a 7 billion souls sucking up oxygen..........Now imagine what would happen if our agricultural centers were inundated, transportation disrupted, potable water sources gone............disease and starvation would flourish, the die-off would be immense.

But relax.........long before the seas engulf the land, some disease now festering in a fetid African swamp will erupt worldwide, or food shortages will pit neighbor against neighor.........even today, there is a struggle for adequate water, fortunately, the struggle takes place in the courtroom, but soon enough if will be in the streets.

[siggie-reported-by-alarmists]

---

@poddster wrote:

I tend to think that the calculations that have been used in determining sea level rise are in error.

Ice that is water borne will no raise the sea level even one centimeter.

Ice that is on land mass will. If yo calculate the volume of ice on Antarctica and add that to the volume of water in the oceans that will determine the change in level.

You cam forget the arctic ice , that is water borne.

Try it yourselves some time but an ice block in a bucket and fill the bucket with water so that the ice floats then fill it to the brim and see if it overflows once the ice melts

Basic science folks 🙂

 

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  You need to included all sheet ice from glaciers too Pods (Mountain tops) however a lot seem happy where they are.

[chameleon54]

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@siggie-reported-by-alarmists wrote:

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@chameleon54 wrote:

My family has farmed crops and sheep in very marginal ( goyders line ) country for several generations. In the 1930,s-50,s my uncles always religiously had the ground prepared and crops sown by anzac day. Now we are very lucky if we have had the opening rains by Anzac day. Growing season rainfall appears to be falling and seasons are cutting off quicker than in the past. Our long term average grain yields where 8 bags to the acre ( old language ) and are now 6 bags to the acre and falling. The really scary thing is this is with huge advances in grain technology such as legume and canola break crops, zero tillage, ( not turning the soil to expose it to drying atmosphere ) ,stubble retention ( mulching ) , spraying of summer weeds to reduce their use of sub soil moisture etc. etc. Without these technological advances our grain yields would be further reduced.

On the sheep front our carrying capacity has halved in thirty years from one sheep to the uncropped acre, to one sheep to two uncropped acres. When I was a child we used to have huge clover crops. Old 8 mm. family films show me and my siblings struggling through them to collect wild mushrooms ( now gone ) . The last big clover year was thirty five years ago, when I left school. We spent the hot summer carting tens of thousands of bales of clover hay and made huge stacks the size of industrial sheds. ( the remains of one of these are still there.) It makes me cry to think of the work that went into that stack and to see it rotting away.

Clovers have completely dissappeared from many farms and the native pine and mallee trees on the sides of the road are showing the effects of drying conditions, with the crown of the mallee being a skeleton of sticks, with leaves concentrated lower down the branches as the trees shrink in size to cope with harsher conditions.

I have been a keen student of nature all of my life and can see gradual changes taking place. As this is some of the most marginal farming country, a keen observer will notice changes here first.

I also own a small property in high rainfall country. Some of the neighbors who have lived in the area for generations are seeing changes in the dates that springs and small creeks begin to flow each season.

Sorry folks, it aint a scientists theory based on computer models that we can argue over. Its already happening on a large scale NOW  !!!!

---

What is happening large scale now?

---

I wouldnt be so bold as to enter the argument on the theoretical, computer based modeling that most here are basing their discussions on. While I follow that debate with interest, my only real knowlege and expertise is at the enviromental fringes of productive agriculture where the effects of climate change will be noticed first.

Whats happening now ???

I left the area that I grew up in, partly because the decreases in productivity we are seeing meant my business was no longer viable. I retained a family farm in the area and still work on this property regularly. 

Many of the remaining farmers are struggling to adapt to the changes. Modern farming systems and computer controlled equipment are now essential to grow any sort of crop at all, and this technology is slowing, and to a point hiding some of the effects of climate change. One of the essential tools is computer GPS controlled steering systems. The previous years stubble is left standing and the new crop is sown between the rows of the old crop. This shades the new seedlings and protects the soil from exposure to the sun. Advanced farmers are trialling which direction to sow, to alighn crops with the arc of the sun. In winter the sun shines on the siol, but as the suns arc is changed in spring and summer, the crop is shaded by last years stubble.

The technologies are expensive and have seen most smaller farmers driven from the land to be replaced by a handfull of larger family farmers who buy the equipement and run the machines 24 hours a day. ( these farmers carry substantial debts, often in seven figure sums. )

Livestock is becoming extinct in the districts as the stubble ( crop residue ) needs to be retained for the new crops protection. As all summer weeds are sprayed there is little feed available to stock from summer rains. As rainfall becomes less during the traditional growing season, legumes and canola break crops become unviable meaning grains are the only option.  Basically it is becoming a mono-culture system of farming, reliant on a few crops and high technology. 

This isnt some scary future armagedon movie. This is happening right now in marginal farming districts all around Australia.

[siggie-reported-by-alarmists]

---

@this-one-time-at-bandcamp wrote:

  It's just the thoughts of people who are terrified of change.....modern man has adapted through 200 000 years of change.

    Some are just hysterical and alarmed........others not so much.

I didn't realize that modern man existed 200 millenia ago .....Oh, you're talking about  hunter-gatherer hominids, not someone capable of starting a chain saw to denude the forests of South America and Indonesia.........then there's the fact that even 200 years ago,  there were only a billion humans populating the earth, much easier to find food, whether you gather it or hunt it.   Today there a 7 billion souls sucking up oxygen..........Now imagine what would happen if our agricultural centers were inundated, transportation disrupted, potable water sources gone............disease and starvation would flourish, the die-off would be immense.

But relax.........long before the seas engulf the land, some disease now festering in a fetid African swamp will erupt worldwide, or food shortages will pit neighbor against neighor.........even today, there is a struggle for adequate water, fortunately, the struggle takes place in the courtroom, but soon enough if will be in the streets.

---

   Terrified of change band?....lol....and no, I am not referring to hominids.  Full anatomical humans "modern humans" have 

   been around for 200 000 years.  The genius homo has been around for 2 million years.....and survived change.

[poddster]

I covered that Sig "ice that is on land mass" 🙂

The war we are heading, in a few tens of thousands of years  we will have another ice age so if humanity is still around then they better create lots of CO2 🙂

[poddster]

Have you considered that the reduction in crop could be due to the depletion of the nutrients in the soil that has been farmed for generations?

Think of the soil as a battery it will go flat if you don't charge it .

Basic science.................again

[siggie-reported-by-alarmists]

---

@chameleon54 wrote:

---

@siggie-reported-by-alarmists wrote:

---

@chameleon54 wrote:

My family has farmed crops and sheep in very marginal ( goyders line ) country for several generations. In the 1930,s-50,s my uncles always religiously had the ground prepared and crops sown by anzac day. Now we are very lucky if we have had the opening rains by Anzac day. Growing season rainfall appears to be falling and seasons are cutting off quicker than in the past. Our long term average grain yields where 8 bags to the acre ( old language ) and are now 6 bags to the acre and falling. The really scary thing is this is with huge advances in grain technology such as legume and canola break crops, zero tillage, ( not turning the soil to expose it to drying atmosphere ) ,stubble retention ( mulching ) , spraying of summer weeds to reduce their use of sub soil moisture etc. etc. Without these technological advances our grain yields would be further reduced.

On the sheep front our carrying capacity has halved in thirty years from one sheep to the uncropped acre, to one sheep to two uncropped acres. When I was a child we used to have huge clover crops. Old 8 mm. family films show me and my siblings struggling through them to collect wild mushrooms ( now gone ) . The last big clover year was thirty five years ago, when I left school. We spent the hot summer carting tens of thousands of bales of clover hay and made huge stacks the size of industrial sheds. ( the remains of one of these are still there.) It makes me cry to think of the work that went into that stack and to see it rotting away.

Clovers have completely dissappeared from many farms and the native pine and mallee trees on the sides of the road are showing the effects of drying conditions, with the crown of the mallee being a skeleton of sticks, with leaves concentrated lower down the branches as the trees shrink in size to cope with harsher conditions.

I have been a keen student of nature all of my life and can see gradual changes taking place. As this is some of the most marginal farming country, a keen observer will notice changes here first.

I also own a small property in high rainfall country. Some of the neighbors who have lived in the area for generations are seeing changes in the dates that springs and small creeks begin to flow each season.

Sorry folks, it aint a scientists theory based on computer models that we can argue over. Its already happening on a large scale NOW  !!!!

---

What is happening large scale now?

---

I wouldnt be so bold as to enter the argument on the theoretical, computer based modeling that most here are basing their discussions on. While I follow that debate with interest, my only real knowlege and expertise is at the enviromental fringes of productive agriculture where the effects of climate change will be noticed first.

Whats happening now ???

I left the area that I grew up in, partly because the decreases in productivity we are seeing meant my business was no longer viable. I retained a family farm in the area and still work on this property regularly. 

Many of the remaining farmers are struggling to adapt to the changes. Modern farming systems and computer controlled equipment are now essential to grow any sort of crop at all, and this technology is slowing, and to a point hiding some of the effects of climate change. One of the essential tools is computer GPS controlled steering systems. The previous years stubble is left standing and the new crop is sown between the rows of the old crop. This shades the new seedlings and protects the soil from exposure to the sun. Advanced farmers are trialling which direction to sow, to alighn crops with the arc of the sun. In winter the sun shines on the siol, but as the suns arc is changed in spring and summer, the crop is shaded by last years stubble.

The technologies are expensive and have seen most smaller farmers driven from the land to be replaced by a handfull of larger family farmers who buy the equipement and run the machines 24 hours a day. ( these farmers carry substantial debts, often in seven figure sums. )

Livestock is becoming extinct in the districts as the stubble ( crop residue ) needs to be retained for the new crops protection. As all summer weeds are sprayed there is little feed available to stock from summer rains. As rainfall becomes less during the traditional growing season, legumes and canola break crops become unviable meaning grains are the only option.  Basically it is becoming a mono-culture system of farming, reliant on a few crops and high technology. 

This isnt some scary future armagedon movie. This is happening right now in marginal farming districts all around Australia.

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I have highlighted some of your own words for you. 

Your location says a lot to me.