Most of the political benefit from this year's budget comes from spending or tax cuts that will take place after the next election. And some of these headlines figures are laughably unsophisticated and misleading, writes Alan Kohler.
A year ago today, the condemnation of the budget was just getting warmed up. This year, the only budget stories a week later are about how voters are returning to the Coalition and consumer sentiment has jumped 3.6 per cent to its highest level since last November.
Of criticism, there is almost none.
So budget 2015 has been a wild success. Everyone keeps their jobs, including Joe Hockey, who has given 36 interviews since budget night. OK, time to talk about something else, like Aussie jihadists coming home from Syria.
Except that like all modern budgets, this one was a mist of political spin, and its success will ensure that it becomes a template.
"We inherited a $48 billion deficit"
Spin. At least $10bn of the 2013-14 deficit came from decisions by the Abbott Government, including the $8.8bn capital injection to the Reserve Bank.
"We are a low-taxing, small-government party"
Spin. The 2015-16 deficit will be $6bn less than this year's because taxes increase by $20bn, mainly because of bracket creep, and spending by $14bn, making this the biggest taxing and spending government since the GFC. Before that you have to go back to the previous Coalition government.
"We are an infrastructure government"
In fact, the detail of the budget papers show a real decline in spending in the Infrastructure and Regional Development portfolio of 11.2 per cent between 2014-15 and 2018-19.
But the main way that all modern budgets distort the truth is hiding in plain sight: the use of the sum of forward estimates as the basis for announcements is little short of lying.On page one of this year's Statement No.1 is the declaration: "At the core of the Budget are a $5.5bn Jobs and Small Business Package and a $4.4bn Families Package." And these figures, of course, have formed the core of the very successful marketing of the budget over the past week.
another good artricle from Alan Kohler. worth reading the whole story in the link