Humble Pie

For Tony Abbott, 

 

Promises before the election, will people forgive him?

 

These very important promises he made probably convinced many to vote for him.

 

Does it make him look like a fool because he harped on about the previous governments promises.

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Re: Humble Pie

The Budget proposals cut costs but there wasn't anything in it to raise revenue ( e.g. Increase in GST %) . That is why Hockey's budget was a fail.

Selling off assets isn't a way to balance a Budget, there will be no assets left to sell eventually. What does a Govt do with the money received from the sale of an asset? Reinvest it in new infrastructure (which will stimulate the economy) or use it to cover a hole in their budget?

Hockey blamed the deficit on Labor ( which all new Govt's do at the START - blame it on the last one) and the drop in the price of iron ore. However, the biggest impact is going to be the failure to get some of his Budget proposals passed... that the Govt has now backed down on.
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Re: Humble Pie

Running a household budget is one thing......running a nations accounts is another.

 

Too many lawyers and puppets and corprate maaaates in the house and not enough fiscal accountants and tech savvies imo. The future is in scientific technologies and lots and LOTS of investment in this. Short and long term in the red but advancement and jobs and a future for Australia.....the wheels would start turning imo.

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Re: Humble Pie

yes am3......GST will probably be raised to about 12%....they would like to go to 15% I am sure! They are probably going to slug us with this in the New Year....just before the predicted 'housing correction'........

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Re: Humble Pie

Abbott: one of his first acts on becoming PM

Sacked the Treasury Secretary ( vindictively over climate change view). Let him stay on to assist with G20. Not been replaced. Also sacked his obvious successor for same reason.

Assistant Treasurer ( to Hockey) Arthur Sinodinos stood down while under investigation by ICAC for corruption. ICAC findings due early 2015.

Joe hockey, Treasurer - who said " poor people don't drive cars and if they do they don't drive very far....."

This is a good article

1 December

Why Hockey's Budget flopped so badly

Who could have predicted what a hash a Coalition government would make of its first budget? If Joe Hockey wants to lift his game in 2015, as we must hope he will, there are lessons the government - and its bureaucratic advisers - need to learn.

The first and biggest reason the government is having to modify or abandon so many of its measures is the budget's blatant unfairness. In 40 years of budget-watching I've seen plenty of unfair budgets, but never one as bad as this.

Frankly, you need a mighty lot of unfairness before most people notice. But this one had it all. Make young people wait six months for the dole? Sure. Cut the indexation of the age pension? Sure. Charge people $7 to visit the doctor, and more if they get tests, regardless of how poor they are? Sure.

Charge people up to $42.70 per prescription? Sure. Lumber uni students with hugely increased HECS debts that grow in real terms even when they're earning less than $50,000 a year? Sure.

What distinguished this budget was that even people who weren't greatly affected by its imposts could see how unfair it was to others.

Unfairly sacked Treasury secretary Dr Martin Parkinson is right to remind us we have to accept some hit to our pocket if the government's budget is to get out of structural deficit. But any politician or econocrat who expects to get such public acquiescence to tough measures that aren't seen to be reasonably fair needs to repeat Politics 101.

This is particularly so when a government lacks the numbers in the Senate - as is almost always the case. Without a reasonable degree of support from the electorate, your chances are slim. Especially when you subjected your political opponents to unreasoning opposition when they were in office.

A related lesson is that successful efforts to restore budgets to surplus invariably rely on a combination of spending cuts and tax increases. To cut spending programs while ignoring the "tax expenditures" enjoyed by business and high income-earners, as this government decided to do, is to guarantee your efforts will be blatantly unfair and recognised as such.

Move in on "unsustainable" spending on age pensions while ignoring all the genuinely unsustainable tax breaks on superannuation? Sure. Our promise to the banks not to touch super trumps our promise to voters not to touch the pension. This makes sense?

But a politically stupid degree of unfairness isn't the only reason this budget was such a poor one. Its other big failing was the poor quality of its measures.

It sought to improve the budget position not by raising the efficiency and effectiveness of government spending, but simply by cost-shifting: to the sick, the unemployed, to the aged, to university students and, particularly, to the states.

There are various ways to improve the cost-effectiveness of the pharmaceutical benefits scheme - though this would involve standing up to the foreign drug companies and to chemists - but why not just whack up the already high co-payment?

There are ways to reform the medical benefits scheme - by standing up to specialists - but why not just introduce a new GP co-payment, even though we already have a much higher degree of out-of-pocket payments than most countries?

The claim that introducing a GP co-payment constitutes micro-economic reform because it gets a "price signal" into Medicare lacks credibility. For a start, I don't believe that's the real motive. Who doubts that, once a co-payment is introduced, it won't be regularly increased whenever governments see the need for further cost-shifting?

For another thing, the notion that introducing a price signal would deter wasteful use without any adverse "unintended consequences" is fundamentalist dogma, not modern health economics.

Similarly, the notion that deregulating tuition fees would turn universities into an efficient, price-competitive market with no adverse consequences to speak of is first-years' oversimplification, not evidence-based economics worthy of PhD-qualified econocrats.

I'm not convinced the range of savings options Treasury and Finance offered the government was of much higher quality than the options it picked.

This budget was so bad because so little effort was put into making it any better.

I'm starting to fear our governments and their econocrats have got themselves into a vicious circle: because the econocrats can't come up with anything better, they fall back on yet another round of that great Orwellian false economy, the "efficiency dividend".

But the never-ending extraction of what have become inefficiency dividends is robbing the public service of the expertise it needs to come up with budget measures that would actually improve the public sector's efficiency.

Ross Gittins, Economist


http://www.rossgittins.com/2014/12/why-hockeys-budget-flopped-so-badly.html
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Re: Humble Pie


@paintsew007 wrote:

Running a household budget is one thing......running a nations accounts is another.

 

 


For sure Paints.  I get that.  But what I dont get is why do they spend so much time going on about deficits and surpluses when they clearly cant predict how it is going to go either way?  It sounds to me like it is playing on peoples fear of debt or something.  Who is it that the country owes all this money to? Is it the reserve bank or other countries?  or?

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Re: Humble Pie

The Govt needs to keep their citizens informed. It is usually the Opposition that carries on about Deficit problems, to try and make the current look Govt bad.

Abbott in Opposition was relentless in doing that, even long after he became PM. He was still banging on about it.

Deficits and surpluses are not reliant on 'prediction'.

The current Govt does use scare tactics... If we don't cut dole payments, charge poor people $7 to see a Dr. etc... then that big deficit Labor left us will keep getting bigger.

That has made them fall flat on their face now.

Australia's level of debt to GDP is not bad... Spain and Greece is.
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Re: Humble Pie


am*3 wrote:

Deficits and surpluses is not reliant on 'prediction'.

 

The current Govt does use scare tactics... If we don't cut dole payments, charge poor people $7 to see a Dr. etc... then that big deficit Labor left us will keep getting bigger.




I dunno am*3, the statement in bold kinda sounds like a prediction to me... They are predicting the deficit will keep rising if they dont do certain things like charge people $7 to see a doctor etc.  

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Re: Humble Pie

The Govt prepares a Budget to address deficit and plans/proposals to reduce it. If it is a good sound Budget and the proposals are passed it should lead to cost cutting AND an increase in revenue.

Of course there are 'outside' influences that will affect Australia's economy negatively, for example, a Global Financial Crisis, or substantial lower price for iron ore.

The current Govt made the proposal to introduce a $7 GP fee the result of doing this would be to bring in xx millions or billions. It was a dumb idea and never got off the ground. So, its not about predicting an increase in revenue there, because if the proposal is scrapped (because it won't pass in the Senate and is seen as unfair for families, elderly, chronically ill) there will be no chance of charging anyone $7.

If the Govt was allowed to introduce the $7 fee and expected $10m from it but people decided not to go to the Dr as much as they would like to because they didn't want to or couldn't pay the $7 ..then the revenue might only be $7m.. That would be their predicted revenue falling short.

This Govt had too many proposals to cut costs that are going to be scrapped. They only have themselves to blame for bad Budget proposals not falling revenue as their proposals never got approved.
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Re: Humble Pie


@am*3 wrote:
The Govt prepares a Budget to address deficit and plans/proposals to reduce it. If it is a good sound Budget and the proposals are passed it should lead to cost cutting AND an increase in revenue.

Of course there are 'outside' influences that will affect Australia's economy negatively, for example, a Global Financial Crisis, or substantial lower price for iron ore.

The current Govt made the proposal to introduce a $7 GP fee the result of doing this would be to bring in xx millions or billions. It was a dumb idea and never got off the ground. So, its not about predicting an increase in revenue there, because if the proposal is scrapped (because it won't pass in the Senate and is seen as unfair for families, elderly, chronically ill) there will be no chance of charging anyone $7.

If the Govt was allowed to introduce the $7 fee and expected $10m from it but people decided not to go to the Dr as much as they would like to because they didn't want to or couldn't pay the $7 ..then the revenue might only be $7m.. That would be their predicted revenue falling short.

This Govt had too many proposals to cut costs that are going to be scrapped. They only have themselves to blame for bad Budget proposals not falling revenue as their proposals never got approved.

The $7 co payment was not to help the budget short fall, it was earmarked for medical research.

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Re: Humble Pie

Another thing this Govt misjudged ( as mentioned in the Ross Gittins article) is that people who are not unemployed on benefits, aged, disabled..support those people and don't want the Budget proposals introduced that will affect them unfairly., for example, sone unemployed youth to only be eligible for dole payments 6 months of the year.

Not all unemployed dole recipients are dole bludgers. Plenty of young people graduating from Uni can't get jobs straight off.

Yet we got Hockey giving speeches about lifters and leaners..why should a working person work a hour more a day to pay a dole bludgers benefit. The majority of the public didn't fall for that attitude.
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