Kevin Rudd slipping in the latest electoral polls

[nero_bolt]

Rudd's honeymoon appears to have ended.

Voters are turning back to the Coalition with the PM's faltering PNG solution for asylum seekers taking water and a backlash over changes to fringe benefits tax which have already cost jobs.

The latest Newspoll, revealed exclusively in The Australian, has Labor falling two points from the highs it enjoyed on Mr Rudd's return, to now trail the Coalition 48 to 52 on a two-party preferred vote.

Mr Rudd's much-vaunted personal approval took a hit, with his better PM rating falling from 53 per cent to 50.

Opposition leader Tony Abbott rose three points to 34.

The results will dishearten Mr Rudd's campaign team who were expecting the momentum to continue to build for Labor.

However, it appears voters have marked down Mr Rudd on his controversial plans to send asylum seekers to PNG and changes to FBT rules for cars, to help pay for his promise to dump the carbon tax.

Senior Labor strategists had said that if Labor had not pulled ahead of the Coaltiion this week it could prompt a rethink about an early election.

Labor's primary vote dropped a point to 37 per cent, while the Coalition's regained three points to firm at 45.

FURY OVER 'UPSETTING' ANTI-IMMIGRATION AD

THE REAL LOSERS OF RUDD'S PNG PLAN

WHY RUDD'S ASYLUM PLAN IS HALF-BAKED

EARLY ELECTION CALL? NOT ANY TIME SOON

POWERFUL AGENDA AT LABOR CAUCUS

PETER COSTELLO - LABOR GIVETH AND TAXETH AWAY

The Greens lifted one point to 10 per cent, well within the statistical margin of error.

The concerns about Mr Rudd's asylum solution continued last night with revelations the cost of the first year of operation of an expanded Manus Island camp could exceed $1 billion. And it appeared people smugglers are testing Mr Rudd with fears as many as 10 boats could be on their way.

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/testing-time-for-kevin-rudds-png-hellhole-solution/story-f...

[nero_bolt]

Rudd-effect on the wane as Abbott retains the people's trust

KEVIN Rudd might have turned around Labor's poll performance, but the mystical Rudd-effect may be waning.

According to an exclusive News Corp Australia poll of more than 26,000 readers, trust in Mr Rudd has gone backwards in the past three weeks.

Compared with a similar survey conducted following Prime Minister Rudd taking office on June 26, this week Mr Rudd is considered less trustworthy to sort out any of the major policies including immigration, health, education and the economy.

Almost two-thirds of respondents trust Opposition Leader Tony Abbott over Mr Rudd to sort out the economy and immigration policy

Mr Rudd performed best in the area of education, where 27 per cent of respondents trusted him to address the problems. Mr Abbott claimed the trust of 51 per cent of respondents.

Mr Rudd has not been able to shake his negative image with "liar", "arrogant" and "fake" the most common words associated with him.

[lakeland27]

Newspoll has the Coalition leading 52-48 after a dead heat a fortnight ago, but there’s some encouragement for Labor in an extra question on asylum seeker policy.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has the Coalition leading 52-48, after a dead heat a fortnight ago. This comes off a three-point lift in the Coalition primary vote to 45%, with Labor down a point to 37% and the Greens up one to 10%. Kevin Rudd’s lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, which blew out from 49-35 in his first poll to 53-31 in his second, is roughly back where it started at 50-34. Rudd’s approval ratings have followed a similar course over the three polls, this one showing approval down a point to 42% and disapproval up five to 41%, while Tony Abbott is steady at 35% and 56%. However, the Prime Minister can take solace in a finding that 26% now consider Labor the past party to deal with asylum seekers, up six since the question was last asked, with the Coalition plummeting 14 points to 33%.

Earlier today we had the regular weekly Morgan poll, which was little changed on last time with Labor down half a point to 41.5%, the Coalition steady on 41%, and the Greens up two points to 9%. There was actually a slight move in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred as measured using preference flows from the previous election, presumably because of rounding, their lead up from 51.5-48.5 to 52-48. On respondent-allocated preferences, the lead is steady at 52.5-47.5. Regrettably, the poll does not come with state breakdowns, which keen observers among us had started to think would be a regular feature (as it surely should be with such a large sample size).

Essential Research is delayed this week and will be along tomorrow

[lakeland27]

ALP would win Federal Election. ALP 52.5% cf. L-NP 47.5%

• July 22 2013
• Finding No. 5048
• Topic: Federal Poll

Finding No. 5048 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last few days via Face-to-Face, Internet and SMS interviewing, July 19-21, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,572 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 1% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.

This week’s Morgan Poll is unchanged. The ALP 52.5% would still win election ahead of the L-NP 47.5% on a two-party preferred basis.

The ALP primary vote is 41.5% (down 0.5%), just ahead of the L-NP primary vote at 41% (unchanged).

Among the minor parties Greens support is 9% (up 2%) and support for Independents/ Others is 8.5% (down 1.5%) – including within that support for Katter’s Australian Party of 1% and support for the Palmer United Party of 1%.

For the Poll Nerds! Calculation of Two-Party preferred vote is based on how preferences for minor parties are allocated:

The Morgan Poll allocates preferences of minor party voters based on how electors surveyed say they will vote: ALP (52.5%) cf. L-NP (47.5%). When the Morgan Poll allocates preferences by how Australian electors voted at the last Federal election – the method used by Newspoll and Fairfax Nielsen – the Morgan Poll shows a slightly closer result: ALP (52%, up 0.5%) cf. L-NP (48%, down 0.5%).

Although not everyone votes ‘the card’, how the preferences of minor parties are allocated on Election Day will depend on the ‘deals’ that are done by various parties and the ‘cards’.

If a Federal Election were held today the ALP would win according to this weekend’s multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,572 Australian electors aged 18+. The Morgan Poll surveys a significantly larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has improved in the last week – up 5.5pts to 115 – the highest since November 2012 (116.5). Now 48.5% (up 3.5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 33.5% (down 2%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows Women swinging back to the ALP this week and still clearly favour the ALP (55.5%, up 2.5%) cf. L-NP (44.5%, down 2.5%) on a two party preferred basis. Men are evenly split: ALP 50% (down 1.5%) cf. L-NP 50% (up 1.5%).

Gary Morgan says:

“The Papua New Guinea ‘Solution’ has helped the ALP maintain their winning position and resulted in a 2% increase in support for the Greens.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today — which party would receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Contact us to for a free 2-week-trial of our weekly Federal Election Voting Intention report (offer valid till 15 August 2013).

Finding No. 5048 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last few days via Face-to-Face, Internet and SMS interviewing, July 19-21, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,572 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 1% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.

[silverfaun]

Liar, fake & arrogant. You could probably add a lot more derogatives to that list but the luvvies get so upset.

[monman12]

NW: ".......However, it appears voters have marked down Mr Rudd on his controversial plans to send asylum seekers to PNG....."

 Actually NW:-

"just a few days after Prime Minister Rudd announced the Government’s new ‘PNG Solution’ last Friday a slight majority of Australian electors say the ALP (50.5%, up 4.5% in a week) would ‘do a better job’ than the L-NP (49.5%, down 4.5%)."

"The results were greatest in Sydney’s western suburbs where there was a three percentage point rise among ALP voters who believe Labor is best able to handle the issue of asylum seekers."

For you LL:

July 19-21   (Multi-mode) Morgan     ALP 52.5     Libs 47.5
22nd.Jul      Newspoll has the Coalition leading 52-48 after a dead heat a fortnight ago
23rd.Jul       Essential Research Labor has pared back a point on two-party preferred to now trail 51-49.

And my trusted barometer, betting odds:  1.28 : 3.55

And  the bitter pill odds, who will lead the Coalition:  Abbott 1.08 : Turnbull 4.00

[lakeland27]

 i'll gladly take those figures at this stage john,  interesting to see where it goes from here..

[***super_nova***]

It will be interesting when Abbott will have to start talking about his policies, which so far seem to be the non delivery of the non existent to no one.  

[i-need-a-martini]

Lol at supanova! Very clever.