@rogespeed wrote:
By my estimate the ACT has only about 1300 unvaxxed left so i am eagerly awaiting the daily report to be lodged to consult new cases , which it has been posted now , which is 1020 new cases so only 80 unvaxxed remaining ......
Of additional interest active cases has reduced by nett 597
At that rate in less than 2 weeks will not be any more active cases so will be safe to conclude that the vaxxx program has worked as described for covid-19 for a large population in the real Australian conditions
rogespeed, you must be pulling our leg...
As is obvious (and I am sure you know, which increases my suspicion that you are indeed making vigorous orthopaedic tugs), the official case numbers in the ACT are not accurate. There are insufficient testing facilities, insufficient staff to perform the tests (with many of them ill with COVID-19), insufficient materials required for the taking and processing of tests, lack of RATs, and in any case the ACT government is only going to start allowing the online reporting of RAT results tomorrow.
Therefore, we can't say "active cases have reduced by nett 597", because frankly we have no idea how many active cases there are.
It is therefore not "safe to conclude" anything from the numbers.
You say that by your reckoning there are only about 1300 unvaccinated people in the ACT. According to yesterday's vaccine rollout update, there are 393,519 Canberrans, excluding infants and children aged less than 5. Of those, there are 362,113 who are fully vaccinated (that is, with 2 doses), which makes it 92.02%.
In numbers, that's ~1,480 who are either unvaccinated or not fully vaccinated.
22.29% have had their booster shot.
You seem somehow to be equating "new cases" with "number of unvaccinated people who have become infected with COVID-19". That is certainly not how it works. Please tell me you're heaving away at our limbs!
The Omicron variant is so infectious and so able to evade immunity that it is infecting vaccinated and unvaccinated people. The rate of infection (%-wise) among the unvaccinated is higher than among the vaccinated, but 2 doses are acknowledged currently as insufficient to prevent infection.
Thankfully 2 doses is still offering sufficiently high protection against severe illness and death, although not as high as it is against Delta and earlier iterations of the virus.
3 doses is required to boost antibody response against Omicron.
You cannot calculate the current number of unvaccinated by running minus signs with the number of new daily cases and your estimate (incorrectly worked out) of those who are still not vaccinated.
By the way, it is established that previous infection does not confer the same degree of protection against Omicron as does vaccination, especially the triple dose. For some, there is no antibody response; for some, some (poor) antibody response which is insufficient to rate as protection; for some, acceptable (but not great) antibody response), and so on. Simply having caught COVID-19 before is nowhere near being protection against being re-infected, and it is possible that the second time will be worse. At any rate, those who have recovered from COVID-19 should get a vaccination shot 3 or so weeks after they are cleared. That is general advice, but of course check with your GP as an individual's health condition may merit a longer period or shorter period.
