Rudd will dump Gonski

[lakeedge]

JULIA Gillard's Gonski education reforms have emerged as the latest flashpoint in the Labor leadership row, with the Prime Minister's supporters arguing that Kevin Rudd would dump the plan.

A key Gillard supporter told The Australian last night that Ms Gillard's backers would be making it clear to MPs that "Gonski is on the line" if there were a change of leadership, and that the former Labor leader's key supporters in western Sydney would see funding to schools in their seats cut.

Another supporter said ditching Gonski would take away one of the two main electoral positives for the government and Ms Gillard was now fighting not only Tony Abbott and his education spokesman, Christopher Pyne, on the issue but also Mr Rudd.

Fairfax Media's Nielsen poll published today shows Labor's primary vote has fallen to 29 per cent, but would rise by 11 percentage points if Mr Rudd assumed the leadership, lifting the two-party preferred split with the Coalition to 50-50.

The Nielsen polls follows internal Labor polling in Victoria and Queensland that confirms voters are turning sharply against the government, with previously safe seats in heartland areas now showing as Coalition gains.

Polling in the provincial safe Labor seat of Ballarat, west of Melbourne, shows that the party faces a swing of up to 13 per cent and would be lost by parliamentary secretary Catherine King.

The internal polling undertaken last week in the Queensland seats of Rankin, held by Trade Minister Craig Emerson, and Oxley, held by parliamentary secretary Bernie Ripoll, showed they would also be lost, suffering swings of more than 6 per cent.

School Education Minister Peter Garrett yesterday conceded MPs were "having discussions" on the leadership as caucus members returning to Canberra for the last two sitting weeks before the September 14 election digested a Galaxy poll in The Sunday Telegraph, which also showed Mr Rudd's resurrection as prime minister would lift the ALP back into a 50-50 fighting chance against the Opposition Leader.

The Gonski attack on Mr Rudd is evidence of the growing threat to Ms Gillard's leadership posed by the former prime minister as her backers seek to kill his support.

A spokesman for Mr Rudd hit back last night.

"The report is untrue and appears to be peddled by the usual group of professional Rudd haters," he said. "Mr Rudd supports the government's policy and he has supported it in caucus."

The new round of tensions were sparked by a report in The Weekend Australian by editor-at-large Paul Kelly that said the "Rudd camp believes the Gonski school agenda is a saga of policy mismanagement where funds are pledged without prospects of better results.

"Rudd is worried about the fiscal cost. He can be expected to act decisively against the half-completed Gonski agenda."

Greens leader Christine Milne said it would be a "disaster" if Mr Rudd abandoned the reforms.

"But it would be consistent with what he did on carbon pricing and . . . it would actually undermine Labor so badly because it would reinforce the view that they don't stand for anything,"she said.

But Mr Rudd's spokesman said: "Before paying serious attention to Christine Milne's policy attack, I would ask Senator Milne to explain why she decided to vote with the Liberals to defeat the carbon pollution reduction scheme in the 2007-10 parliament. The truth is that Ms Milne has no answer to this question. It was rank hypocrisy."

The Weekend Australian revealed on Saturday that the Australian Workers Union would not stand in the way of leadership change from Ms Gillard to Mr Rudd if Labor MPs decided to revisit the issue.

AWU national secretary Paul Howes said the union continued to support Ms Gillard, but it would not be directing MPs on how to vote in a caucus ballot. Western Sydney MP John Murphy on Friday called on Ms Gillard to step down for Mr Rudd.

Ms Gillard appeared at a farmers' market in Adelaide yesterday dismissing threats to her leadership as "rumour and speculation" while Mr Rudd appeared at a fun run in Brisbane.

Ms Gillard increased pressure on Victorian Premier Denis Napthine to sign on to her Gonski deal, releasing data on how every Victoria school would be better off under the plan. "It's time for Premier Napthine to get serious and sign up. This is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to deliver the biggest investment in education in generations," she said.

Ms Gillard has made it clear she will not stand aside for Mr Rudd and the former prime minister has consistently ruled out a challenge, with close colleagues saying "it will be a matter of a broad coalition from the ministry and caucus to draft him into the leadership to avoid terminal division".

Disastrous Victorian polling for Labor has put Workplace Relations Minister Bill Shorten under pressure to resolve the leadership impasse, but Mr Shorten has indicated he supports Ms Gillard.

Senior sources believe while a majority of caucus members would "like something to happen", it is unclear whether they would vote for change.

Mr Garrett and Wayne Swan reaffirmed declarations made last year that they would not serve on a Rudd frontbench. "That's what I've said before and my position hasn't changed," Mr Garrett said as he acknowledged the leadership was being discussed by MPs.

"I absolutely accept people can change their views about these matters."

The Treasurer dismissed the opinion polls. "This whole discussion is so disrespectful of voters . . . People calling an election outcome months out from the election based on a poll which may or may not have some rigour. I mean it's just ridiculous," Mr Swan said.

The Australian revealed last week Labor faces huge swings in all states, particularly along the eastern seaboard, with officials anticipating the loss of 30-40 seats.

Labor polling around the nation reveals that at least nine ministers would lose their seats if an election were held now, while three others are at risk. High-profile casualties would include Mr Swan, Mr Garrett and Assistant Treasurer David Bradbury.

The Victorian Labor campaign committee decided on Friday to shift Ballarat, held by a margin of 11.7 per cent on to its "target seats" list and move resources into the electorate to try to hold it.

Across Victoria, the party's primary vote has fallen to 35 per cent and shows swings of up to 8 per cent against the government in inner Melbourne and about 15 per cent in outer-suburban areas.

Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus's seat of Isaacs in the southeast of Melbourne, held on a margin of 10.4 per cent, would be lost. The party has already written-off the seats of Corangamite, Deakin and La Trobe.

Chisholm and Bruce are on a knife-edge.

[poddster]

Lest we forget Bump