Which polls really matter?

[donnashuggy]

Do you think Newspoll is the most reliable?

Why?

Do you think given that the most popular leader usually wins the election is anything to go by?

[poddster]

The one on September 7th.

The others are mere educated predictions of what may or may not eventuate. The do however give a pretty good indication of future likely events.

[monman12]

DY: "do any polls show abbott as preferred PM?"

Newspoll

"Prime Minister Julia Gillard has narrowed the gap on Opposition Leader Tony Abbott on who would make the better leader.

On that question Mr Abbott was five points ahead of Ms Gillard in early May (42-37) and that gap has been narrowed to just one point (40-39)."

"for the first time in Newspoll, Julia Gillard has sunk below Tony Abbott as the preferred prime minister."

I know you love to quote  history DY! (when it is possibly  favourable to your outlook)

[donnashuggy]

Thanks for trying poddy, do you know which poll nero may have been referring to? He doesn't answer many questions I have found, I wonder why?

[newstart2380]

North and south polls

[poddster]

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@donnashuggy wrote:

He/she doesn't answer many questions I have found, I wonder why?

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I do have a very clear recollection of saying those exact to words to someone else in the not too distant past, remember??

[carls*world]

The one that takes place on a Saturday, that most citizens over 18 participate in, and make their choice in writing, of which the result takes numerous hours to correctly calculate.

[nero_bolt]

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@poddster wrote:

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@donnashuggy wrote:

He/she doesn't answer many questions I have found, I wonder why?

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I do have a very clear recollection of saying those exact to words to someone else in the not too distant past, remember??

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 I always answer questionjs from nice people with one face poddster and you are a very nice person,  so I would answer your questions if you ever had the need to ask me one or more Mr Poddster.... LOL  🙂

🙂 

[poddster]

I have no doubt of that nero 🙂

My comment was aimed at Donna, she knows full well what not too distant past I refer to 🙂

The previous eBay forum, The Round Table, was a great place for debate, many a verbal joust I had with Donna and her consort, or should that be her accomplice?

[izabsmiling]

Ellis: Newspoll antics escalate in Dobell and Robertson

Posted by admin in Politics on 16 August, 2013 

IA

THERE ARE NINE QUESTIONS that arise from theNewspoll in Robertson and Dobell.

Why was the sample a mere 505 and not 800 — the statistical minimum?

What was the average age of the respondents?

Why was it of two seats, not one?

Why did it not show the vote for Craig Thomson — the most contentious candidate?

Why did it not show the vote for Nathan Bracken, the ‘celebrity’ candidate?

Why were no mobiles rung?

Why were the respondents not asked what their preferences were?

Why were outdated preferences, from 2010, used instead?

Why, if the margin of error is 4.4, print the poll at all?

Why it came out now, obviously, was the news about Peter Slipper standing, and looking confident and competitive. Col Allan wanted to obliterate Craig Thomson, a similar figure, without even mentioning him.

The poll suggests that Craig and Nathan got only 4 per cent between them. What rubbish that is. It allots, also, Craig’s preferences to the Liberals.

Newspoll owner Rupert Murdoch: using every tool at his disposal to swing the election his way. 

It also, amazingly, shows Abbott as preferred prime minister on the front page, but not in the details: on page 6, under Better PM, are the categories Satisfied, Dissatisfied and Uncommitted, with no names attached. Once again, a Newspoll has been cobbled together at the last minute and shows panicky typos.

It gives no indication of why Abbott’s approval has gone up 15 percent in a week. The debate? Hardly. It would have been nice if they had asked some of these good people why they had suddenly gone mad.

It sounds as if the polling was done in the daytime, on landlines, among seventy to ninety year olds. I ask, again, and Rudd should ask ‒ and Albo ‒ how old the respondents were.

If they do not answer, we can assume their actions were criminal — the equivalent, as cheating, of drugs in sport.

[freakiness]

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@donnashuggy wrote:

Do you think Newspoll is the most reliable?

Why?

Do you think given that the most popular leader usually wins the election is anything to go by?

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The polls matter because some people follow the polls, so the more they can be manipulated to position one side over the other the better the chance of the followers voting for the preferred side.