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vicr3000 · ‎24-02-2015

Why is Bureau of Met manipulating data re Cyclone Marcia ?

They said it was a Cat 5 cyclone, yet all the wind speeds, sustained and gusts show that it was only a Cat 3.

In addition, the pressure level never got down to a Cat 5.

And regardless of the better building codes compared to Darwin/Tracy in 1974, the damage was no where near a Cat 5.

For a start, the trees still had leaves on them. In all the Cat 5 cyclones in the last 30 years, no trees had leaves

left on them.

In addition, "Data for Middle Percy Island has disappeared from the BOM site, but Jennifer Marohasy kept a copy.

(I’m sure the BOM will be grateful!)..."

Have a read of this.

http://joannenova.com.au/

IN ADDITION

It seems some of the media outlets wewre dissapointed that the damage wasn't worse. That was the impression I got.

Almost like Disaster porn.

Any comments ?

vicr3000 · ‎25-02-2015

Found some info - that barely supports Cat 3.

THE Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a media release last night (19thFebruary) with the headline “Tropical Cyclone Marcia to reach Category 5 system at landfall”. This morning there was extensive media reporting of Marcia having reached landfall as a Category 5.

But where is the evidence? And who is asking for it? Like the Bureau, the Australian media seem intent on hyping the event, rather than providing any critical or dispassionate assessment.

The first technical bulletin for Marcia, issued at 4pm today states that, “surface observations have not captured the highest winds,” and acknowledges that the minimum pressure so far recorded has been 975 hPa inside the eye wall at 1.30 pm at Rockhampton.

In fact, this central pressure only qualifies Marcia as a Category 2. As one would expect of a category 2, both Rockhampton and Yeppoon have sustained relatively minor house damage and significant damage to trees.

Just before the cyclone made landfall it passed over Middle Percy Island, to the north of Rockhampton, and the lowest central pressure recorded for the system then was 971.6 hPa at 3.39 am this morning. A wind gust of 208 km/hr was recorded at 4.30 am, which suggests Marcia was almost a Category 3 at this time, even though its central pressure was never recorded as below 970 hPa. The central pressure of a cyclone needs to be somewhere in the 970 to 955 hPa range to be a Category 3.

This would suggest that even as Marcia approached the Queensland coastline it was never more than a Category 2.

Indeed the raw observational data available at the Bureau’s website would suggest that Cyclone Marcia made landfall just south of Middle Percy Island as a Category 2 approaching a Category 3, but had already weakened to a very ordinary Category 2 approaching Category 1 by the time it reached the city of Rockhampton.

This evidence, however, contradicts the track map at the Bureau’s website, and also the extensive media suggesting that Cyclone Marcia made landfall as a Category 5, and was still a Category 3 system when it reached Rockhampton.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has been hyping the possibility of a devastating cyclone hitting the Queensland coastline all year. It forecast that Marcia would hit as a Category 5 cyclone, but where is the evidence?

vicr3000 · ‎25-02-2015

Some replies to the blog above

Max winds peed today at Yeppoon was 156kmph with a Baro Low of 985.5 hPa – seems like a Cat 2

Another one

Lot of discussion over at weatherzone forum about this one. I get the feeling that there were some interesting features to Marcia, but the general agreement seems to be small, intense, maybe Cat 3/4 at landfall with an almost immediate softening.

The thing that gets me is the ridiculous media hype and BOM did nothing to dispel this. Some of the official statements were bordering on alarmism with suggestions that it would be a calamity and some kind of expectation for huge devastation.

I also don’t follow the suggestion that it is very unusual for a cyclone either this late in the year (it’s not even March yet!) or that far south. Heck as a kid in Maryborough I recall several cyclones either making landfall down our way or pushing past Fraser Island.

From memory Daisy struck around Bundy in the early 70s and at least one other came ashore somewhere closer to Hervey Bay than that. I also recall a very large cyclone just missing us in the 80s (Pam?).

The thing to me is that this was a relatively small and mostly unremarkable cyclone that, while it has brought substantial damage in places, was well and truly overhyped. But then, nearly any weather event seems to get this sort of attention these days, as though in the past we actually lived in some beatific, entirely benign period of climatic calm…

vicr3000 · ‎25-02-2015

Even a climate researcher is giving the BOM a hiding.

A CLIMATE researcher at Central Queensland University has claimed the weather bureau’s Cyclone Marcia forecasts were inaccurate and irresponsible.

Jennifer Morohasy said the bureau had used computer modelling rather than early readings from weather stations to determine that Marcia was a category 5 cyclone, not a category 3.

A CLIMATE researcher at Central Queensland University has claimed the weather bureau’s Cyclone Marcia forecasts were inaccurate and irresponsible.

Jennifer Morohasy said the bureau had used computer modelling rather than early readings from weather stations to determine that Marcia was a category 5 cyclone, not a category 3.

A CLIMATE researcher at Central Queensland University has claimed the weather bureau’s Cyclone Marcia forecasts were inaccurate and irresponsible.

Jennifer Morohasy said the bureau had used computer modelling rather than early readings from weather stations to determine that Marcia was a category 5 cyclone, not a category 3.

A CLIMATE researcher at Central Queensland University has claimed the weather bureau’s Cyclone Marcia forecasts were inaccurate and irresponsible.

Jennifer Morohasy said the bureau had used computer modelling rather than early readings from weather stations to determine that Marcia was a category 5 cyclone, not a category 3.

A CLIMATE researcher at Central Queensland University has claimed the weather bureau’s Cyclone Marcia forecasts were inaccurate and irresponsible.

Jennifer Morohasy said the bureau had used computer modelling rather than early readings from weather stations to determine that Marcia was a category 5 cyclone, not a category 3.

http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/climate-researcher-questions-cyclone-marcias-category-...

lloydslights · ‎25-02-2015

Insurance Companies and Council Building Codes would all be affected with this sort of data.

DEB

siggie-reported-by-alarmists · ‎25-02-2015

Creal Reef 189km/hr 977.8 hPa Cat 3.

Middle Percy Island 208km/hr 970.2 hPa Cat 3

Yeppoon 156km/hr 985.4 hPa Cat 2

Rockhampton 113km/hr 985.5 hPa Cat 1