Aussie Elections - What a Dilemma.

[icyfroth]

Voters don't like Shorten and don't trust Turnbull.

The problem for our country when an election becomes a choice between big party leaders perceived to be “bad versus worse” is that voters look elsewhere.

Unlike US voters who have primary campaigns, Australian voters can’t support insurgencies inside the main parties so express their dismay with politics-as-usual by voting for independents and minor parties — and that’s why I think we are cruising for a total disaster in the Senate unless something changes.

The most confident prediction anyone can make so far, with 25 per cent of voters opting for neither the Coalition nor Labor, is that the new Senate will be even more populist than the last.

MORE than halfway through this interminable election campaign, it’s obvious that many Labor voters don’t like Bill Shorten and many Liberal and National voters are still not sold on Malcolm Turnbull.

It’s clear how Shorten is trying to deal with this: by spending more on health and education to win back Labor’s base and by making extravagant promises on climate change to woo the Greens.

It’s not so clear how Turnbull is responding: he’ll be pleased the campaign is back on economic turf but he still hasn’t moved enough of the uncommitted vote to his side of the ledger and his superannuation changes still tell the Liberal base you don’t really matter because you have nowhere else to go.

The problem for our country when an election becomes a choice between big party leaders perceived to be “bad versus worse” is that voters look elsewhere.

Unlike US voters who have primary campaigns, Australian voters can’t support insurgencies inside the main parties so express their dismay with politics-as-usual by voting for independents and minor parties — and that’s why I think we are cruising for a total disaster in the Senate unless something changes.

The most confident prediction anyone can make so far, with 25 per cent of voters opting for neither the Coalition nor Labor, is that the new Senate will be even more populist than the last.

This should worry every Australian who elects a government to get on with governing because an obstructionist Senate means that securing the economic reform and budget repair our country needs will be harder than ever.

Federal elections almost always turn on who can best be trusted to keep our economy strong and our country safe. While the government should be returned, particularly after Labor’s release of a disastrous 10-year budget forecast last week, neither side has a credible plan for budget repair, even though we know we can’t endlessly live on the nation’s credit card.

Neither side has a credible tax reform plan, even though lower, simpler, fairer taxes are essential for our long-term prosperity. Labor actually thinks that taxes are too low, although it insists the only people who need to pay more are rich investors, big companies and smokers.

The Coalition accepts that taxes are too high but is paying for a company tax cut in 10 years’ time with a superannuation tax increase now.

Both sides accept that the deficit has to be dealt with but, petrified by the sabotage of the 2014 budget, neither is prepared to take anything away from anyone — except from self-funded retirees whom the Coalition thinks it can’t lose and Labor thinks it can’t win.

National security is not being talked about at all even though Russia continues to threaten its neighbours, China is increasingly throwing its weight around in our region, Islamic extremists are still threatening “death to the infidel” on the battlefields of the Middle East and the streets of Europe, and the US has never looked less strong and less certain. Defence does get a mention from the Coalition but only as a job creation scheme for South Australia.

It is clear that the Government has had a good week but a lot of that is because the Opposition has had a shocker. Yet when an election is contested on the economic playing field, it tilts to the Coalition’s advantage.

With three weeks to go, the unusually high vote parked with “other” is an opportunity for both leaders. Neither side has cut through. For Shorten, he’s still dogged by the baggage of the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd years and he’s not trusted on the economy.

On the evidence of this campaign so far, neither leader appears to have really grabbed the campaign by the throat. It is there for the taking and with it, a large block of Australians who have parked their vote with ‘other’ in almost every published poll.

For Labor, I fear its folly with 10-year policies and a worsening budget position over the forward estimates will be seen by voters as just the latest way of avoiding hard decisions now. Shorten has to take this head on (and deal with his premier ‘mates’ who are blowing up his campaign).

For the Coalition, it is a dual ask — more policy detail so that voters can make an informed decision, and a prime minister out in the media more often so that we can hear his pitch directly and get to know the man. Both parties have to trust us and have an honest conversation.

We’re not fools and ultimately we don’t respect those who treat us as if we were. The trouble when politicians won’t trust the people is that the people won’t trust the politicians either.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/peta-credlin-voters-dont-like-bill-shorten-and-dont-trust-malcolm-t...

Sorry for the huge C&P, but the link will take you to a paywall, so I copied the whole article.

I have nothing but distaste for either leader, but not sure who else there is that could have a chance getting in.

[esayaf]

The old ways of thinking need to be changed to cope with a changing world. No one in politics thinks any further than there own super payout.
We need to get rid of the grey haired regressives and get young people in that will have to live with the consequences of their actions.

[chameleon54]

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@esayaf wrote:
So you think Australian's working in manufacturing should get paid 50 cents an hour so manufacturing can come back from China to Australia

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No Actually I dont think that at all. It may be hard for some to understand, but there IS actually some middle ground in between 50 cents per hour and 100K per year.  I dont believe a worker on the production line at Ford or Holden is worth the $70,000 -$100,000 ( inclusive of add ons such as sickies, holiday pay, maternity leave, superannuation, penalty rates   etc. ) that we are told they where costing the companies.

It is the same with the public service. I have been on public school councils and several years ago a full time base wage teacher was costing our school $123,000 inclusive of add ons. ( rural school ) The add ons negotiated by unions have increased the cost of employing public servents to the point where thier wages have become out of kilter with what the economy can reasonably sustain. This is a major contributor to the blow out in current accounts reffered to by an earlier poster under both Liberal and Labour governments.

Public servents can claim they pay tax and so contribute to the economy.

While it is definately true that public servents at a personal level DO pay a SIGNIFIGANT proportion of their wage in taxes, at a macro ecenomic level, this is just recycling money that is already in the system. It is not actually adding new money to the pool of money which goes to physically pay for our roads, hospitals, law and order, social security  etc. 

The new money that is added to governments coffers to pay for everything only comes from the private sector.

Australias wages have been driven to unsustainable levels by unions, making us uncompetative against other nations. This is reflected in the rising current account defecit, rising unemployment and the destruction of our manufacturing sector. Union greed has already killed the goose that lays the golden eggs. ( private enterprise, manufacturing etc. ) 

At its most basic level, WE ARE LIVING BEYOND OUR MEANS. !!!!   As a nation we simply cant afford the McMansions, shiny black SUV,s, giant plasma TV,s and home theatre systems that many have come to expect. ( its your right you know )

[chameleon54]

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@esayaf wrote:
The old ways of thinking need to be changed to cope with a changing world. No one in politics thinks any further than there own super payout.
We need to get rid of the grey haired regressives and get young people in that will have to live with the consequences of their actions.

---

There is certianly a place in politics for young people with ideas and enthusiasm. At the moment our youth do not have a voice and have no real say in our democratic process. This needs to be tempered with the experience of the elders.

My own teenage kids simply have no understanding of how the real world works. They have the same idealism of youth that most of us experienced without having experienced the pain and suffering the world can throw up at times. ( mind you, they are learning fast as they seek employment and try to find a sense of identity and personal vision for the future. )

[***super_nova***]

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@chameleon54 wrote:

As an observer who is not alighned to either party, I just continually see Labour wasting money hand over fist and the conservatives having to try to clean up the mess. Like most people I appreciate Labours socialy inclusive policies, but at the end of the day THEY HAVE TO BE PAID FOR SOMEHOW. Unfortunately we are in a very fragile global economy and its not the right time for a Labour spendathon..  

In the time of global financial fragility, Australia needs strong financial management. By its very nature, you will never get this from a Unionised Labour Party.

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Could you please explain to me then WHY did Australia with ALP government kept the highest  ever credit rating ?  Why was treasurer Wayne Swan awarded the prestigious finance minister of the year award for his handling of the Australian economy?    These financial institutions are very conservative, they do not give good credit rating without good reason.   Sometimes you need to spend money to make money. 

Unions are just a balancing power against the large multinationals, which would have you working for $1 a day with no benefits, and no regard for workers' safety.  Just as they do in the poor nations around the world.  Are the unions perfect?  Of-course not , but if you look at all the corruption up in the high end of town, the union problems pale in comparison.

Turnbull may not be planning to sell of medicare if he is elected, but gosh how LNP wish they could.  They know it would be a political suicide, but believe me they will chip at it when nobody is looking.  It has been happening for a while now; I know old age pensioners on full pension who had to pay over $100 co-payment for some x-rays and scans.

[***super_nova***]

The average full-time wage was last year $74,724 before tax.  If full time base wage teacher was costing your school $123,000 inclusive of add ons, I do not know who you are employing because the average pay for a High School Teacher is AU$61,819 per year. Most people move on to other jobs if they have more than 20 years' experience in this career  because the range of teacher salary is  AU$43,898 - AU$89,604, and they can earn more elsewhere.  Maybe living in a small town you think that this sort of wages are huge, but in big cities where you need to have at least $1,000,000 to be able to buy a house , and rents are many hundreds of dollars, unless you are content to commute for hours every day (and that is also not cheap).  $80k is not much for a family to live on; it certainly does not provide many luxuries.

[tezza2844]

Lies, Dammned lies and statistics.

Tezza, I dont have any allegances to either party and hav'nt voted for either of the majors for many years. Can you say the same ???

I have voted for both the main parties at some time or other. I don’t go round pretending I have not.

What I do know is that all major ecenomic nations have been struggling since the global financial crisis. You could cherry pick figures to suit your argument for any economy and political party in the world and they would probably be true. Unemployment and fragility in employment have been increasing globally, , current account deficets etc. worldwide have been spiralling out of control and Australia is not immune to these global forces.

Is this the GFC according to the Conservetives that never existed or did not effect Australia. and yes “Unemployment and fragility in employment have been increasing globally, , current account deficets etc. worldwide have been spiralling out of control and Australia is not immune to these global forces.” But does not that mean that the current Government policies and practices are inefficient and ill-conceived under these circumstances.

As an observer who is not alighned to either party, I just continually see Labour wasting money hand over fist and the conservatives having to try to clean up the mess. Like most people I appreciate Labours socialy inclusive policies, but at the end of the day THEY HAVE TO BE PAID FOR SOMEHOW. Unfortunately we are in a very fragile global economy and its not the right time for a Labour spendathon.. We do not a fragile economy, we have one of the best performing encomiast foe OECD countries for the last 25 years (both Conservative and Labor have perform to kept it this way) The biggest problem with Labour is that most of its candidates come from a trade union background. They have no experience with growing businesses and the economy. The union movement by nature is based on extracting the most it can from the system for the immediate benefit of their particular constituantcy. This is in itself an admirable aim, but it is counter productive to long term ecenomic growth, which relies on investment and devolopment at the near term expense of the individual.

Whilst the majority of conservative members come from a professional backgrounds, and never had to struggled on a wage that has not kept pace with inflation, means that they don’t spend money of items that keep the economy rolling. Being a professional person does not equate with being efficient in money managing eg Joe Hocking

Just look at Australias car industry and manufacturing sector to see the results of that one. Constant Trade Union "gimmie" demands have priced Australian manufacturing workers out of their own jobs and the sector has shrivelled and died. ( a crying shame to be honest )

The wages that these industry workers earn are laid down by the Fair Work Commission. There are areas that are well over the average wage, but these are “negotiated” between both parties. The closing of the car industry was caused by the Government withdrawing its subsidies ( Most other car producing countries subsidies these industries). But the flow on from this is that closing down the industry also has a massive flow on in that it also closes down all the companies that supply the many parts required to build these cars

With this union bias and having zero experience with ecenomics, running business and producing long term wealth, Labour is socially rich, but unfortunately financially illiterate.

Going by the performance of the current Government budgets (none passed completely since 2014) and tripling of the Overall Government Debt and their efforts to raise Taxes , Patient co-payments etc etc I think I’ll pass on that statement

In the time of global financial fragility, Australia needs strong financial management. By its very nature, you will never get this from a Unionised Labour Party.

A well constructed but meaningless pro-government jingle of more than three words

[chameleon54]

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@***super_nova*** wrote:

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@chameleon54 wrote:

As an observer who is not alighned to either party, I just continually see Labour wasting money hand over fist and the conservatives having to try to clean up the mess. Like most people I appreciate Labours socialy inclusive policies, but at the end of the day THEY HAVE TO BE PAID FOR SOMEHOW. Unfortunately we are in a very fragile global economy and its not the right time for a Labour spendathon..  

In the time of global financial fragility, Australia needs strong financial management. By its very nature, you will never get this from a Unionised Labour Party.

---

Could you please explain to me then WHY did Australia with ALP government kept the highest  ever credit rating ?  Why was treasurer Wayne Swan awarded the prestigious finance minister of the year award for his handling of the Australian economy?    These financial institutions are very conservative, they do not give good credit rating without good reason.   Sometimes you need to spend money to make money. 

Unions are just a balancing power against the large multinationals, which would have you working for $1 a day with no benefits, and no regard for workers' safety.  Just as they do in the poor nations around the world.  Are the unions perfect?  Of-course not , but if you look at all the corruption up in the high end of town, the union problems pale in comparison.

Turnbull may not be planning to sell of medicare if he is elected, but gosh how LNP wish they could.  They know it would be a political suicide, but believe me they will chip at it when nobody is looking.  It has been happening for a while now; I know old age pensioners on full pension who had to pay over $100 co-payment for some x-rays and scans.

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The Liberals will tell you it is because Labour inherited a very large pool of money ( courtesy of the mining boom. ) that Labour was able to spend to stimulate the economy at a time of global crisis.  

At the time I did not actually have any problems with Labours $1000 free money for everyone. It certianly helped keep the Australian economy from tanking at a critical time. Likewise the school halls program whilst poorly implemented and definately open to rorting, was a useful emergency policy. In the context of a national ( and global ) ecenomic emergency, where time was critical, we can forgive Labour for the clumsy, shoddy way it was implemented. The idea was there.

 Basically Labour got the awards for doing what Labour does best. THROWING OTHER PEOPLES MONEY AROUND WILLY NILLY.        ( in this case though I think the spending was generally justified.  )

SUPERNOVA - I would not argue with you about your views on the Liberals. The Liberals certianly are more interested in their big business mates than "the little people". They only tolerate us because we vote.

My point is that there is a place for both parties in Australian governence. Labour has a place to address the social inequalities implemented by the Liberals, introducing more socialy equitable policies and taking steps to look after the vulnerable in society. This should be done when things are positive in the ecenomic cycle and there is the money to implement such policies. Once Labour has spent all the money, and the ecenomic cycle turns, we need the Liberals to come in and try to clean up the fiscal mess left behind.

At our currenmt point in the ecenomic cycle we need the Liberals ecenomic management. One would hope the world ecenomies will eventually heal and at that point a Labour government will definately be needed to address the social inequalities implemented by the Liberals.

[esayaf]

What is a social inequality to eat while the Liberals are in

[electric*mayhem*band]

Icy, you think you've got troubles. You should be living here.  Well maybe not, the weather's dreadful.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/26/eu-referendum-hilary-benn-sacked-from-shadow-cabinet-by-j...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/24/david-cameron-announces-his-resignation---full-statement/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/16/nicola-sturgeon-orders-officials-to-draw-up-plans-for-sec...

                                          

                                           "Oh do please calm

                                             down everyone.....

                                             Whatever will the

                                        rest of the world think" ?

[chameleon54]

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@***super_nova*** wrote:

The average full-time wage was last year $74,724 before tax.  If full time base wage teacher was costing your school $123,000 inclusive of add ons, I do not know who you are employing because the average pay for a High School Teacher is AU$61,819 per year. Most people move on to other jobs if they have more than 20 years' experience in this career  because the range of teacher salary is  AU$43,898 - AU$89,604, and they can earn more elsewhere.  Maybe living in a small town you think that this sort of wages are huge, but in big cities where you need to have at least $1,000,000 to be able to buy a house , and rents are many hundreds of dollars, unless you are content to commute for hours every day (and that is also not cheap).  $80k is not much for a family to live on; it certainly does not provide many luxuries.

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Again, I would not argue with you on this. BUT one of the critical reasons housing has become so expensive is that wages are so high. If everyone earned 30% less it is likely ( everything else being equel ) housing prices would eventually come down to match wages affordabilty.

Many families have both parents working, so they are making a lot more than 80K. The average wage does not provide for luxuries, unless of course you mean the black SUV, home theatre, private school, OS holidays, iphones, internet 24/7 and huge McMansion with onsuite everything that many families expect as their right.

We are one of the richest nations on earth, with one of the highest standards of living in the world. This has in the past been driven to a large extent by our intrinsic wealth in basic commodities. As this wealth is diminished by falling commodity prices and spread over greater numbers of people due to a rising Australian population, we are finding we are spending more than we are earning

Wether we like it or not, we are living beyond our means and living standards will have to face a correction sometime. The longer we bury our heads in the sand and fail to accept this basic truth, the harder the fall will be. ( for reference, Google Greece )