Aussie Elections - What a Dilemma.

[icyfroth]

Voters don't like Shorten and don't trust Turnbull.

The problem for our country when an election becomes a choice between big party leaders perceived to be “bad versus worse” is that voters look elsewhere.

Unlike US voters who have primary campaigns, Australian voters can’t support insurgencies inside the main parties so express their dismay with politics-as-usual by voting for independents and minor parties — and that’s why I think we are cruising for a total disaster in the Senate unless something changes.

The most confident prediction anyone can make so far, with 25 per cent of voters opting for neither the Coalition nor Labor, is that the new Senate will be even more populist than the last.

MORE than halfway through this interminable election campaign, it’s obvious that many Labor voters don’t like Bill Shorten and many Liberal and National voters are still not sold on Malcolm Turnbull.

It’s clear how Shorten is trying to deal with this: by spending more on health and education to win back Labor’s base and by making extravagant promises on climate change to woo the Greens.

It’s not so clear how Turnbull is responding: he’ll be pleased the campaign is back on economic turf but he still hasn’t moved enough of the uncommitted vote to his side of the ledger and his superannuation changes still tell the Liberal base you don’t really matter because you have nowhere else to go.

The problem for our country when an election becomes a choice between big party leaders perceived to be “bad versus worse” is that voters look elsewhere.

Unlike US voters who have primary campaigns, Australian voters can’t support insurgencies inside the main parties so express their dismay with politics-as-usual by voting for independents and minor parties — and that’s why I think we are cruising for a total disaster in the Senate unless something changes.

The most confident prediction anyone can make so far, with 25 per cent of voters opting for neither the Coalition nor Labor, is that the new Senate will be even more populist than the last.

This should worry every Australian who elects a government to get on with governing because an obstructionist Senate means that securing the economic reform and budget repair our country needs will be harder than ever.

Federal elections almost always turn on who can best be trusted to keep our economy strong and our country safe. While the government should be returned, particularly after Labor’s release of a disastrous 10-year budget forecast last week, neither side has a credible plan for budget repair, even though we know we can’t endlessly live on the nation’s credit card.

Neither side has a credible tax reform plan, even though lower, simpler, fairer taxes are essential for our long-term prosperity. Labor actually thinks that taxes are too low, although it insists the only people who need to pay more are rich investors, big companies and smokers.

The Coalition accepts that taxes are too high but is paying for a company tax cut in 10 years’ time with a superannuation tax increase now.

Both sides accept that the deficit has to be dealt with but, petrified by the sabotage of the 2014 budget, neither is prepared to take anything away from anyone — except from self-funded retirees whom the Coalition thinks it can’t lose and Labor thinks it can’t win.

National security is not being talked about at all even though Russia continues to threaten its neighbours, China is increasingly throwing its weight around in our region, Islamic extremists are still threatening “death to the infidel” on the battlefields of the Middle East and the streets of Europe, and the US has never looked less strong and less certain. Defence does get a mention from the Coalition but only as a job creation scheme for South Australia.

It is clear that the Government has had a good week but a lot of that is because the Opposition has had a shocker. Yet when an election is contested on the economic playing field, it tilts to the Coalition’s advantage.

With three weeks to go, the unusually high vote parked with “other” is an opportunity for both leaders. Neither side has cut through. For Shorten, he’s still dogged by the baggage of the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd years and he’s not trusted on the economy.

On the evidence of this campaign so far, neither leader appears to have really grabbed the campaign by the throat. It is there for the taking and with it, a large block of Australians who have parked their vote with ‘other’ in almost every published poll.

For Labor, I fear its folly with 10-year policies and a worsening budget position over the forward estimates will be seen by voters as just the latest way of avoiding hard decisions now. Shorten has to take this head on (and deal with his premier ‘mates’ who are blowing up his campaign).

For the Coalition, it is a dual ask — more policy detail so that voters can make an informed decision, and a prime minister out in the media more often so that we can hear his pitch directly and get to know the man. Both parties have to trust us and have an honest conversation.

We’re not fools and ultimately we don’t respect those who treat us as if we were. The trouble when politicians won’t trust the people is that the people won’t trust the politicians either.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/peta-credlin-voters-dont-like-bill-shorten-and-dont-trust-malcolm-t...

Sorry for the huge C&P, but the link will take you to a paywall, so I copied the whole article.

I have nothing but distaste for either leader, but not sure who else there is that could have a chance getting in.

[icyfroth]

imastawka wrote:

Esayaf is never pleased about anything,  it seems

She likes men coming on to her even if she complains about it and calls them barbarians.

I'd agree about the barbarians. I mean, who else would?

[lind9650]

I wish I could have been at last nights debate. With all those plans and promises it is hard to fathom what will be possible in the long run.

One question I would have had for both Party Leaders; "Where is all the money comming from to keep the Billions of $$$ spending promises?"

Turnbull is a master with evasive answers and Shorten is talking about results in ten years time. I like to see the Party that will still be in power after ten years.

Maybe I will vote for the Pirates? At least I will know that I am not deluding myself.

Erica

[***super_nova***]

Funny, I have seen people here and elsewhere complaining that most politician are only concerned about the next 4 years till the next election, others complain when they plan beyond.  I think it is very important to plan long term.

Where is the money to run country coming from?  From taxes.  As far as the deficit goes, most economists will tell you that it is fine to have a deficit as long as the money is invested in something for the future.  How do you think all the big projects in the past were done?  And as in this moment the interest rates are minuscule, now is the time to borrow and invest in infrastructure for the future.  People pay taxes so the government can provide services and build infrastructure, not to have it sitting idly.  Maybe some think out taxes should be nicely safely hoarded under the mattress?  It's like saying that people should not be having mortgages and should instead save their money.  Do you know how long it took for the Sydney Harbour Bridge to be paid for?

As far as negative gearing goes, it is a very unfair and unsustainable tax perk, which contributes to the inability of young people not being able to buy.  What ALP is proposing will not affect the existing investors, and people who wish to negatively gear will be still able to do so, they just have to buy new.  That will stimulate the building industry.  In long run these changes will be very beneficial to most people. 

By the way we do have a negatively geared property, which could sell for bit less if we decided to sell soon after the change, because of investors not bidding.  But that is all academical, the price we would get  would still depend how badly people want it. 

I do not think it is unfair if an unfair benefit is phased out.

[azureline**]

I have to do a postal vote this year, my 9yo GD is doing research for me and I am planning to take her advice on it!

she seems to have a pretty good idea about Education, Medicare and the environment and who will be the best use of my vote.

Apparently there is a website, also, that allows you to answer questions and they give suggestions as to who you should vote for

[davidc4430]

neither side is very high in the trust stakes.

personally in  the past 36 years or so of voting it hasnt made a huge difference to me who was running the country.

however if not for the senate in this past 3 years i would have been out of pocket by quite a lot. i thank the senate for blocking so many items the lieing liberals were going to force apon me.

btw, has mr turnball once spoken of the oh so important item the senate refused to pass he used as a trigger for this double dissolution election? cant say its been very prominent.

in my view the govonor general was duped into disolving parlement.

[lyndal1838]

The Governor General does not have much say in it....he is obliged to take the advice of the current government, just as the Queen is obliged to say what "her" government is going to do when she opens Parliament each year....no matter which party is in power and whether she agrees with it or not.

[chameleon54]

A pox on both of their houses. I am fortunate enough to live in one of the electorates where an independent could hold the balance of power. I have already voted and the independant got my vote.

I,m looking forward to a fast ride on the gravy train and my snout is doing push ups to get ready.  

My only dllemma was who to put last. Labour or Liberal. In the end I put the the Liberals last as they where more likely to get over the line in my electorate than Labour, but it hurt.

Australia cant afford another three or four years of Labour spending like drunken unionists who have just broken into the bosses safe at work.

Plus Little Billy has a very questionable past in his treatment of woman when he was at university.  The recent royal commission into trade unions indicated he sold out the workers at the Chiquita mushroom factory, bargaining away the workers pay and conditions in exchange for a large donation to his union.

It might just be me, but personally I dont trust some-one like that running the country and making decisions about my pay and working conditions.

At least Malcolm started from a single parent family with nothing and worked his way up to millionaire status. If you had to pick the one with the best past track record to lead our country in difficult times, it looks a no brainer to me.

[tezza2844]

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@chameleon54 wrote:

A pox on both of their houses. I am fortunate enough to live in one of the electorates where an independent could hold the balance of power. I have already voted and the independant got my vote.

I,m looking forward to a fast ride on the gravy train and my snout is doing push ups to get ready.  

My only dllemma was who to put last. Labour or Liberal. In the end I put the the Liberals last as they where more likely to get over the line in my electorate than Labour, but it hurt.

Australia cant afford another three or four years of Labour spending like drunken unionists who have just broken into the bosses safe at work.

Plus Little Billy has a very questionable past in his treatment of woman when he was at university.  The recent royal commission into trade unions indicated he sold out the workers at the Chiquita mushroom factory, bargaining away the workers pay and conditions in exchange for a large donation to his union.

It might just be me, but personally I dont trust some-one like that running the country and making decisions about my pay and working conditions.

At least Malcolm started from a single parent family with nothing and worked his way up to millionaire status. If you had to pick the one with the best past track record to lead our country in difficult times, it looks a no brainer to me.

According to Treasurer Scott Morrison, Labor's economic record--“... is an absolutely howling shocker.”

How many of these variables have improved since the Labor years, through 33 months of steady global economic recovery?

1. Budget deficit as percentage of GDP
2. Gross debt
3. Net debt
4. Rate of wages growth
5. Jobless rate
6. People unemployed
7. Hours worked per person per month
8. Balance of trade
9. Current account as percentage of GDP
10. Business confidence (NAB)
11. Consumer confidence (Westpac)
12. Small business sentiment (NAB)
13. Interest rates
14. Household savings
15. Household debt to GDP
16. Crude oil production
17. Steel production
18. Value of the Aussie dollar relative to the US$
19. Value of the Aussie dollar relative to the euro
20. Australia’s gold reserves
21. Government 10 year bond rate
22. Credit ratings (S&P, Moody’s, Fitch)
23. Economic freedom (Heritage)
24. Competitiveness ranking (WEF)
25. Corruption index (Transparency)

NONE-. Morrison is hopelessly wrong (again)

[chameleon54]

Lies, Dammned lies and statistics.

Tezza,    I dont have any allegances to either party and hav'nt voted for either of the majors for many years. Can you say the same ???

What I do know is that all major ecenomic nations have been struggling since the global financial crisis. You could cherry pick figures to suit your argument for any economy and political party in the world and they would probably be true. Unemployment and fragility in employment have been increasing globally, , current account deficets etc. worldwide have been spiralling out of control and Australia is not immune to these global forces.

As an observer who is not alighned to either party, I just continually see Labour wasting money hand over fist and the conservatives having to try to clean up the mess. Like most people I appreciate Labours socialy inclusive policies, but at the end of the day THEY HAVE TO BE PAID FOR SOMEHOW. Unfortunately we are in a very fragile global economy and its not the right time for a Labour spendathon..  

The biggest problem with Labour is that most of its candidates come from a trade union background. They have no experience with growing businesses and the economy. The union movement by nature is based on extracting the most it can from the system for the immediate benefit of their particular constituantcy. This is in itself an admirable aim, but it is counter productive to long term ecenomic growth, which relies on investment and devolopment at the near term expense of the individual.

Just look at Australias car industry and manufacturing sector to see the results of that one. Constant Trade Union "gimmie" demands have priced Australian manufacturing workers out of their own  jobs and the sector has shrivelled and died. ( a crying shame to be honest )

With this union bias and having zero experience with ecenomics, running business and producing long term wealth, Labour is socially rich, but unfortunately financially illiterate.

In the time of global financial fragility, Australia needs strong financial management. By its very nature, you will never get this from a Unionised Labour Party.

[esayaf]

So you think Australian's working in manufacturing should get paid 50 cents an hour so manufacturing can come back from China to Australia