on 22-06-2016 09:50 PM
Warnings about global economic fallout if Britain votes to leave the European Union are reaching fever pitch a day out from the so-called Brexit referendum.
In an op-ed in the Guardian, billionaire currency trader George Soros said a "Leave" vote could severely damage British living standards and potentially trigger a major crash in the British pound.
Economists divided on Brexit
BlackRock managing director and global chief investment strategist Richard Turnill said if Britain does exit, he expected to see volatility and significant declines in the Sterling.
"We expect to see significant declines in domestic UK assets, particularly smaller, mid-cap equities, but actually as you've seen over the last few days, the volatility I think is going to extend to broader European assets and global assets. I think you'll see flows into safe havens in the event of an exit, back into treasuries, back into gold," Mr Turnill said.
But British economist Roger Bootle, the founder of Capital Economics disagreed, arguing the UK would not be necessarily worse off if it left the EU.
"It's not going to be a case of European politicians saying to their own industries and to us we can't trade, that would be illegal under WTO rules," Mr Bootle said.
"It's going to be a matter of the EU if worse comes to worse, treating us exactly as they treat all sorts of countries around the world, including the United States, India, China, Japan, etc."
My son, who lives in England and works in the finance sector in London, wants England to stay in the EU. I say they should leave. We've been sending each other terse emails.
on 25-06-2016 09:04 PM
on 25-06-2016 09:19 PM
25-06-2016 09:55 PM - edited 25-06-2016 09:58 PM
@springyzone wrote:Super nova said:
people just do not learn, they will vote for anything recommended by anybody who tells them they are better than others and agrees with anything they want
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I don't think it happened in this case.
Look at it this way: In almost every referendum ever held, people tend to vote to maintain the status quo.
People, on the whole, are afraid of change.
The fact that the exit vote actually got up proves not that they will vote for 'anything' but that there were a lot of deeply unhappy citizens.
You say they will vote for anything recommended by anybody. Over the last few weeks, some of the politicians there have been intimating that the sky would fall in, that it would virtually be the start of WW3, the plague, you name it, if they dared to leave the EU.
Yet people chose to go against that recommendation.
When you look at the demographics it shows that the people who voted for the exit are mostly older, working class and racially motivated. Something like 75% of young people voted to remain. It is not an accident that those people who voted to exit are the same people who do not believe in Anthropogenic climate change, despite that overwhelming majority of scientist keep telling us. They do not trust authorities, and they do not like Obama and dismissed whatever he and all the other qualified people told them. Watching news from Britain tonight I have noticed that some of those still wearing their exit T-shirts, are not looking quite so upbeat as they did yesterday. Maybe it is starting to sink in that plummeting pound is not a really good sign. These people do not get it, that if all the foreigners are going to be sent back to Europe, there will be less people to buy and that will not be good for economy. The way it looks Scotland and possibly Ireland are going to split, and it will leave England very insignificant messy little country, and all that because they do not like people with dark skin or east European accent.
It will be interesting to see if rest of the Europe will realise that there is a strength in numbers, and they will try to work together.
on 25-06-2016 10:24 PM
The breakdown of information of stay versus leave voters is fascinating..
on 26-06-2016 08:03 AM
With reference to Scotland, following recent regional elections, Stugeon and the Scottish National Party (SNP) are not in such a strong position electorally in the regional Scottish parliament as they were, which may make it more difficult for the SNP to push through legislation to trigger a second independence referendum:
>> The SNP will now have to reach out to other parties in order to pass legislation at Holyrood... the lack of a working majority also makes it less likely that the SNP will try to force through legislation for another independence referendum during the five-year term of the parliament...
www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/snp-holyrood-7908542
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2016/scotland/results
on 26-06-2016 08:56 AM
~
on 26-06-2016 10:02 AM
I have left the UK Ebay........ Tommy.Irene.
on 26-06-2016 10:13 AM
Thanks for that link youcandoityoucandoityoucandoit.. It's amazing how easy it is persuade some people to vote particular way just with few simple populist slogans. As they say in the song, Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose.......... Now they will have to renegotiate their trade contracts, and who wants to make contracts with tiny unstable country?
On the plus side, hopefully the rest of Europe when looking at UK over the coming weeks and months, might be more cautious if they get the opportunity to vote on future of EU
on 26-06-2016 11:25 AM
on 26-06-2016 11:43 AM
i am neither for or against britain leaving the EU.
but i find it interesting the group who voted to remain and lost are now demanding a new vote as it was 'too close' to be a mandate.
i ask, would these people be shouting about a new vote had they won the argument by the same margine as they lost?
my money would be no, they would be taking the same satand as the winning side. it was a fair vote, we won. end of story.