COVID-19 vs Flu ... Oils ain't oils

[countessalmirena]

There is sometimes some confusion about whether COVID-19 is the same as 'flu. Is it just a type of 'flu? Is it a more virulent strain like the 'flu of 1918 (Spanish flu)? Can't we just treat it in the same way that we treat the 'flu?

There are similarities between COVID-19 and influenza

• They are both respiratory diseases.
• They are both contagious.
• They are both airborne (can be transmitted via tiny particles suspended in the air). Droplet (close contact infection from larger sized particles) or fomite transmission (from surfaces) is also common to both.
• They can both result in pneumonia which complicates the patient's outcome.
• Those infected can be asymptomatic (no symptoms), have mild symptoms, have moderate symptoms, or have severe symptoms. Some patients will die.
• People infected with either COVID-19 or 'flu can transmit the disease while asymptomatic, hence they may never know that they have passed on a disease to others.
• Symptoms of COVID-19 and influenza can be similar, but loss of taste or smell is far more likely to occur with COVID-19 than with 'flu.

CAN COVID-19 be diagnosed by symptoms?

Neither 'flu nor COVID-19 can be diagnosed from the symptoms experienced by the patient, although previously, unless it was clinically necessary, GPs may have diagnosed 'flu based upon sympoms. (That's less likely to happen now with the risk of COVID-19.) A diagnostic test (PCR) is the most accurate way to test for either 'flu or COVID-19, and there's even a est (multiplex assay) that can test for influenza A, influenza B or COVID-19 at one and the same time.

REDUCING RISKS is the same for both diseases

• Hand hygiene
• Cough etiquette (cough into crook of elbow, not into hands)
• Social distancing
• Air filtering/purifying/ventilation
• Mask wearing (ensure no gaps)
• Avoid touching face or adjusting mask
• Quarantine and isolation where required

VIRUS THAT CAUSE COVID-19 vs VIRUSES THAT CAUSE 'FLU

These two diseases are not caused by the same viruses. COVID-19 is not a type of 'flu.

Coronavirus

SARS-CoV-2, the virus which causes COVID-19, is a coronavirus (spherical, with a lipid (fat) layer, and their surface is studded with protein spikes) which is a positive-sense single-stranded RNA virus. It enters human cells primarily by binding to an enzyme called ACE2. Other coronaviruses include that which causes SARS, that which causes MERS, and those which are part of a range of different viruses that cause the common cold.

SARS-CoV-2 is identified as being a strain of the virus that causes SARS, based upon conserved sequences of nucleic acids. This does not mean that SARS-CoV-2 is a mutation of the SARS virus; these two made the jump from bat-reservoir to humans separately.

SARS is considered to be eradicated in terms of human-to-human transmission, primarily because containment measures were very effective. Patients with SARS were most infectious if they were severely ill, and in the second week of their infection (while their symptoms were severe). There were 774 confirmed deaths due to SARS. Now, because the last outbreak of SARS was years ago, it ceased to be a global priority. No effective antiviral treatments currently exist, and work on a vaccine stalled because of lack of funding years ago. However, that early work was pivotal in driving vaccine development for SARS-CoV-2; without that groundwork, we might still be waiting for a COVID-19 vaccine. This highlights just how important it is for funding to be readily available.

This contrasts with how easily SARS-CoV-2 is spread - in particular with the Delta variant being transmissible within as early as 1-2 days of exposure, and while the person is asymptomatic.

MERS is more deadly than SARS-CoV-2, but nowhere near as easily transmitted. Direct or indirect contact with camels is the most likely route for infection; human-to-human transmission can occur, but it requires close contact, and there's no evidence of asymptomatic transmission. There have been 885 confirmed deaths due to MERS. There's no current effective treatment, but several vaccines are in clinical trials. It is not considered a priority risk to the global population.

Influenzavirus

But when we come to influenza, it's caused by negative-sense, single-stranded, segmented RNA viruses that use glycoproteins as their break-and-entry method into cells. There are four types of influenza: influenza A virus (the most virulent - i.e., deadly - human flu virus, and the one that's responsible for human epidemics/pandemics), influenza B virus (slower to mutate and doesn't cause pandemics, but can still cause deaths globally), influenza C (usually only causes mild disease in children), and influenza D (not known to cause infections in humans).

Quadrivalent 'flu vaccines are highly effective in preventing infection by either of the known circulating influenza B virus lineages, and in fact it is possible that the hygiene/containment measures against COVID-19 have actually eliminated one of those two lineages. There still remains the B/Victoria/2/87 lineage, and the current 'flu vaccine remains effective against that.

By far the most dangerous 'flu virus for us is influenza A. The current 'flu vaccine is effective against the circulating strains (H1N1 and H3N2). The 'flu vaccine must be regularly updated with newly emerging seed strains, as influenza A mutates rapidly. If a new and deadlier strain that could be transmitted human-to-human were to emerge - say, of H5N1 - there would be a timelag before it could be identified and a  vaccine developed against that specific strain. In that event, the number of deaths would be high.

"Just" the 'flu?

Let's not minimise the effect of the 'flu upon humans. We see annual deaths of seasonal 'flu, mostly among the unvaccinated and the vulnerable, in the order of ~300,000 globally. Better hygiene measures and an end to the "soldier on" attitude when one has 'flu symptoms does see this number go down dramatically, as evidenced by the 2020/2021 'flu season results.

However, when virulent and highly contagious new strains seed in the wild, there arises a pandemic risk. When we see 'flu pandemics, they are not something to be sneezed at (excuse the pun). They have been deadly and catastrophic. We haven't defeated the 'flu, and living with the 'flu means constant vigilance by the CDC to identify new strains, and using those strains as attenuated versions for use in the updated quadrivalent vaccine for the upcoming season.

Without that ongoing work, the world as it is could not continue to function.

When I hear people comparing the 'flu with COVID-19, they are talking about the 'flu as it is now - that is, under strong control, with high immunity levels in the community due to many people having regular 'flu shots, and those shots being regularly updated with the strains out in the wild. Natural immunity to 'flu lineages doesn't last a lifetime, not even for influenza B, and certainly not for influenza A.

We should not trivialise 'flu. New 'flu pandemics are epidemiologically sure to arise, and they will kill and cause chaos.

But at the moment, we're in the COVID-19 pandemic. COVID-19 has Reff of 8 (Delta variant), and that's higher than the Reff of the 'flu strains that have caused pandemics. Thank God we have developed effective vaccines and that vaccine development is continuing. Thank God we've got oral drug treatments already in line for approval. We'll only get on top of this by global vaccination and in addition by making sure that drug treatments are made available. Vaccination is even more important against COVID-19 than it is against 'flu - but we can't do without either.

Discussion welcome.

[rogespeed]

What did we, as a nation ,  learn from the " delta "  invasion and what are we going the do about the new threat ? Maybe this time gleeful  tourists returning from South Africa  or via open doors UK ? 

Is feasting upon HIV sufferers and gaining function and even now quickly displacing delta 

btw - Question of the day : why after two years covid-19 has not devastated Africa ( excluding South Africa ) 

[countessalmirena]

That is a significant and legitimate question.

Some researchers are tentatively proposing that the younger average age is a factor; one surprising possibility is that an HIV-weakened system is less likely to respond with a cytokine storm.

We don’t know at this stage. Work is ongoing.

[countessalmirena]

Breaking news...

Classification of Omicron (B.1.1.529): SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern

26 November 2021

The Technical Advisory Group on SARS-CoV-2 Virus Evolution (TAG-VE) is an independent group of experts that periodically monitors and evaluates the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and assesses if specific mutations and combinations of mutations alter the behaviour of the virus. The TAG-VE was convened on 26 November 2021 to assess the SARS-CoV-2 variant: B.1.1.529.

The B.1.1.529 variant was first reported to WHO from South Africa on 24 November 2021. The epidemiological situation in South Africa has been characterized by three distinct peaks in reported cases, the latest of which was predominantly the Delta variant. In recent weeks, infections have increased steeply, coinciding with the detection of B.1.1.529 variant. The first known confirmed B.1.1.529 infection was from a specimen collected on 9 November 2021.

This variant has a large number of mutations, some of which are concerning. Preliminary evidence suggests an increased risk of reinfection with this variant, as compared to other VOCs. The number of cases of this variant appears to be increasing in almost all provinces in South Africa. Current SARS-CoV-2 PCR diagnostics continue to detect this variant. Several labs have indicated that for one widely used PCR test, one of the three target genes is not detected (called S gene dropout or S gene target failure) and this test can therefore be used as marker for this variant, pending sequencing confirmation. Using this approach, this variant has been detected at faster rates than previous surges in infection, suggesting that this variant may have a growth advantage.

There are a number of studies underway and the TAG-VE will continue to evaluate this variant. WHO will communicate new findings with Member States and to the public as needed.

Based on the evidence presented indicative of a detrimental change in COVID-19 epidemiology, the TAG-VE has advised WHO that this variant should be designated as a VOC, and the WHO has designated B.1.1.529 as a VOC, named Omicron.

As such, countries are asked to do the following:

• enhance surveillance and sequencing efforts to better understand circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants.
• submit complete genome sequences and associated metadata to a publicly available database, such as GISAID.
• report initial cases/clusters associated with VOC infection to WHO through the IHR mechanism.
• where capacity exists and in coordination with the international community, perform field investigations and laboratory assessments to improve understanding of the potential impacts of the VOC on COVID-19 epidemiology, severity, effectiveness of public health and social measures, diagnostic methods, immune responses, antibody neutralization, or other relevant characteristics.

Individuals are reminded to take measures to reduce their risk of COVID-19, including proven public health and social measures such as wearing well-fitting masks, hand hygiene, physical distancing, improving ventilation of indoor spaces, avoiding crowded spaces, and getting vaccinated.

Source: World Health Organization: Home/ News/ Classification of Omicron (B.1.1.529): SARS-CoV-2 Variant of ...

[rogespeed]

Question is how many other children of the same age era and same comorbidities will be at risk and does that justify mass jabbing ( excluding commercial factors ) considering that children of that age are clinically virtually naturally immune from serious outcomes from covid-19 infections or should only children at risk due to known comorbidities be immunised having first proved that covid-19-lite will not exacerbate existing said unpublished comorbidities 

[rogespeed]

If the latest variant from South Africa proves more infectious but far less deadly then the World might be seeing the beginning of the end of the pandemic ( Delta has been less deadly than Alpha )

[not_for_sale2025]

"Delta has been less deadly than Alpha"

Not for the unvaccinated!

[countessalmirena]

@rogespeed, I'm not sure why you have assumed that as a given. It is not the case.

I won't write my own detailed reply as I would normally do, because one of the journalists writing for the Royal Australian College of Practitioners (Jolyon Attwooll) has done a nice job in covering this. He's referenced the Ontario study (Research Evaluation of the relative virulence of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants: a retrospective cohort study in Ontario, Canada) that I would have referenced, and he's also included a relevant comment by Professor Tony Cunningham and the very cautious position that ATAGI took, in that they were unwilling to conclude higher risk of poor outcomes, but acknowledged that other countries were reporting such outcomes.

He also refers to a Singapore study and to a UK study published in The Lancet (Hospital admission and emergency care attendance risk for SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) compared with alpha (B.1.1.7) variants of concern: a cohort study), both of which point to the same conclusion: Delta is associated with more severe disease and greater likelihood of hospitalisation and death than previous variants.

❝A Canadian study has given more evidence of the much sharper virulence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern, with the Delta strain appearing to be the most dangerous yet.
 
The greater contagiousness of the Delta variant was clearly understood early on in its progression to becoming the dominant strain around the world. However, the large study carried out by researchers at the University of Toronto seems to reinforce evidence suggesting the variant also poses a greater risk of more severe outcomes, including in younger age groups.
 
Published this week [the article was published 6 October 2021] in the Canadian Medical Association Journal, the research tracked 212,326 cases of COVID-19 recorded between 7 February and 26 June this year in the Canadian province of Ontario.
 
It found the chances of death were 133% higher with the Delta variant compared to the original strain, while the hospitalisation risk rose by 108% and the probability of ICU admission increased by 235%.
 
The Delta variant was detected in Ontario in April after the study begun and only became the dominant strain in July after the study period had ended. Confidence intervals for the risks attributed to Delta are higher compared to the figures presented for the other variants.
 
However, the authors say the results clearly signal Delta’s greater virulence and its increased risk of causing more severe outcomes.
 
‘Given the relatively small number of Delta infections in our study, it is remarkable that we detected a clear and significant elevated risk of uncommon, delayed outcomes, such as death,’ they write.
 
According to the research, other variants of concern also increased risks but not as substantially.
 
With COVID-19 cases caused by the Alpha, Beta and Gamma variants of concern, the study found the risk of hospitalisation increased by 52%, the likelihood of admission to ICU rose by 89% and the chances of death were 51% higher.
 
‘Once we adjusted for confounding factors such as age, vaccination status, comorbidity and temporal trends, elevated per-infection risk, including risk of death, remained markedly higher with variants of concern, and with the Delta variant in particular,’ the authors write.

[...]

Professor Tony Cunningham of the Westmead Institute for Medical Research in Sydney described the strain to Nine Newspapers as ‘clearly more virulent’ and that it was ‘causing serious disease in younger people’.
 
Likewise, a July media release from the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation (ATAGI) about the use of COVID-19 vaccines in an outbreak setting noted Delta’s greater contagiousness, although it did not reach a firm position on whether it caused more severe disease.
 
‘Some countries have reported that infections with this variant are associated with higher risk of hospitalisation, need of intensive care, and death, even after differences in age or other factors are accounted for,’ the ATAGI statement read.❞

[myoclon1cjerk]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-28/tavellers-test-positive-omicron-covid-sydney/100657076

[rogespeed]

In the UK currently the case rate is about 4.5x  unvaxxed vs vaxxed 

Fact Check: In UK, Fully Vaccinated ARE 82% Of COVID-19 Deaths, 66% Of Hospitalizations -- But Perce...

Interesting that the unvaxxed seem to be getting vaxxed to some degree by close proximity to the vaxxed 

As an aside If we did the correct thing and tested for antigens in unvaxxed individuals first before imposing sweeping mandatory requirements for vaccinations  we might avoid the current  angst  

[domino-710]

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@rogespeed wrote:

Interesting that the unvaxxed seem to be getting vaxxed to some degree by close proximity to the vaxxed 

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Huh??