The Australian
30 December 2014
Coalition โfaces routโ in southern Australia
TONY Abbott is facing a rout in southern Australia as voters shun the Prime Ministerโs policies and style, prompting nervous Coalition MPs to call for a clearer and more compassionate strategy to market the government.
Senior Liberals have warned of a โbloodbathโโ in Victoria, sparked by the Prime Ministerโs unpopularity, and warned of strategic losses in South Australia amid uncertainty about the manufacturing sector.
The Australian can reveal that at least seven Liberal seats are at serious risk of falling in Victoria and South Australia, handing Labor a beachhead to fight the 2016 election in the crucial NSW and Queensland battlegrounds. As well as losing seats gained when the Coalition won government last year, it faces the loss of seats it held while in opposition.
Liberal strategists are concerned the damage will be even wider unless the Coalition contains the rise of independents in regional electorates.
Mr Abbott yesterday acknowledged concerns about the governmentโs low popularity but insisted he was tracking ยญaccording to plan.
โAny politician who says he or she doesnโt look at the polls is telling a fib,โโ Mr Abbott told Sydney radio station 2GB.
โBut we always thought 2014 was going to be a tough year because we always felt the job of budget repair would be incredibly difficult. Itโs proven to be every bit as difficult as we expected but we are on the right track. In the end, whatโs important to me and my ministers is not passing popularity but doing the best job by the people of Australia.โโ
Liberal MPs yesterday urged Mr Abbott to sell the governmentโs economic agenda better and explain the rationale for ยญattempting to revive the nationโs finances by breaking promises.
Victorian Liberal MP ยญMichael Sukkar, who holds the marginal Melbourne seat of Deakin, said the electorate had a โmisalignment of expectationsโโ about the governmentโs ability to turn around the economy in just over a year. He said the government needed to communicate its agenda to voters better and tailor the political argument differently when addressing the southern and northern states.
โWe all just have to explain our rationale for the decisions weโve made a lot better,โโ he told The Australian.
Based on the current anti-Abbott backlash in Victoria, Liberal strategists believe the seats of Deakin (3.2 per cent), Corangamite (3.9 per cent), La Trobe (4 per cent) and Dunkley (5.6 per cent) will fall. That could leave the Coalition holding just 12 of Victoriaโs 37 federal seats. Casey (7.2 per cent) is also at risk.
In South Australia, Hindmarsh (1.9 per cent) would be a Labor gain on current voting intentions and the safer seats of Boothby (7.1 per cent) and Sturt (10 per cent) are also at risk amid angst over the collapse of the car industry and broader economic uncertainty. This could leave the Coalition with just three of South Australiaโs 11 federal seats.
Labor has not held Dunkley since 1996, Sturt since 1972 and Boothby since 1949.
Sturt is held by Education Minister Christopher Pyne, who is one of the governmentโs most prominent members, and he is set to be targeted by unions over his support for budget cuts.
Senior Liberal strategists have told The Australian that anti-ยญAbbott sentiment is โprofoundโโ in Victoria and was key to last monthโs state election defeat. โYou are looking at a bloodbath in Victoria,โ a senior Liberal said. โSeats will fall and any gains we made in 2013 will be wiped out.โ
The Liberal member for Corangamite, Sarah Henderson, said the task was to focus on positive outcomes, suggesting the government show a softer edge. โI also recognise how important it is to listen, and govern with compassion,โโ Ms Henderson said.
In South Australia, both major parties accept that three federal Liberal seats are vulnerable if Mr Abbottโs popularity does not vastly improve.
The seat most at risk is Hindmarsh, which covers Adelaideโs inner western suburbs. Hindmarsh had been held by Laborโs Steve Georganas since 2004 but was wrested away at the last election by Liberal Matt Williams.
Mr Williams said he was concerned about the impact of anti-Abbott sentiment in South Australia and said funding cuts, including to industry, had been having a negative impact.
โWe have to address that negative perception and get the facts out there so the public become better aware,โ he said. โThe agenda is dominated by a state Labor government and ministers constantly speaking about federal issues. In regards to defence shipbuilding, I have raised the issue of defence projects for South Australia with the Prime Minister. We have to be a bit more optimistic in terms of what opportunities there are going forward.โโ
The comments come after an analysis of Newspolls from October to December showed a marked shift over 12 months.
The analysis found the Coalition ahead only in Western Australia and trailing 60 per cent to 40 per cent in Victoria.
If Newspoll were replicated at a federal election, seven seats would fall in Victoria alone. The Coalition holds 90 seats in the 150 seat parliament, Labor 55.
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