Epic election rout for Labor

[nero_bolt]

Epic election rout is just the beginning for Labor

AS Labor MPs file into the opposition partyroom after the September 14 federal election, there will be plenty of vacant seats. Just how bad Labor's likely rout will be is impossible to predict precisely this far out.

But a range of senior Labor Party officials - those who know the mood in the nation's 150 electorates better than anyone - are in no doubt about the scale of the electoral tsunami that is headed for Labor.

"It's going to be far, far worse than most people think it will be," says one of several party officials who spoke to Inquirer this week.

"It's going to be a bloodbath," says another.

"On the party's polling and the published polling, we are looking at the loss of 35-40 seats," says a third party official. "But when you look deeper, we're facing a wipeout in some of our safest seats."

The consensus is if an election were held today, Labor would lose 35 to 40 seats - more than half its 72 seats (including Craig Thomson's seat of Dobell). This would leave Labor with just 32 to 37 seats in the House of Representatives.

As I go around the states, I struggle to tally Labor winning more than 35 seats," says a party official.

"We need to win seats to stay in government," says another. "I can't see us doing that."

If this nightmare scenario eventuates, Labor will collapse into a party with seats clustered into the eastern states of NSW and Victoria with a few more in South Australia and the ACT.

The party could fail to win a single seat in Queensland, Western Australia, Tasmania and the Northern Territory.

It is anticipated Labor will endure a defeat worse than 1996 when Paul Keating was in power or in 1975 after Gough Whitlam's dismissal. Some fear losses on a scale not seen since the Labor split of the 1930s.

Several Labor sources confirm the party's national polling mirrors newspaper polling, with the party's primary vote about 30-33 per cent. There is not much internal polling being done now as they know what it will tell them.

National polls, however, mask what is happening in Labor's heartland seats.

"In this climate, the bigger the seat's margin, the bigger the swing will be," says a party official

"I haven't seen anything like this level of anger and anxiety in the electorate," says a Labor MP battling to hold a safe seat with a double-digit margin. "People really don't like us right now."

Another Labor MP keeps repeating the word "toxic" to describe Labor's standing.

A third MP reaches for "bad," "diabolical" and "terrible". A fourth, while recognising "it's very tough for us right now", won't give up hope: "We've got time to turn it around."

One seat being discussed is Newcastle, north of Sydney. This is the only seat Labor has held continuously since 1901. Sitting member Sharon Grierson is retiring. Changing demographics, a strong foothold by the Liberals in the region (they hold the state seat of Newcastle) and Grierson's retirement put it in danger.

"We're in deep trouble in Newcastle," says a Labor MP.

"Of course Newcastle will be tough for us," concedes NSW Labor secretary Sam Dastyari. "It would be foolish for us to take it for granted."

What appears to be weighing Labor down is not only federal Labor but the poor performance of state Labor governments and oppositions.

In Queensland, where Labor holds eight seats on margins between 1.1 per cent and 8.5 per cent, only Kevin Rudd's seat of Griffith is expected to be won.

In NSW, half the party's 26 seats could be lost, including at least eight in Sydney and the central coast.

Only the inner-city seats held by Anthony Albanese (Grayndler) and Tanya Plibersek (Sydney) are considered safe.

Three more MPs are under serious threat: Chris Bowen (McMahon), Chris Hayes (Fowler) and Tony Burke (Watson). Jason Clare (Blaxland) and Ed Husic (Chifley) are facing big swings in working-class areas of Bankstown and Blacktown.

While the party is concerned about Newcastle, it is confident of retaining the three other Hunter seats and the two in the Illawarra. On the north coast, Page and Richmond are seen as wild cards. So is Mike Kelly (Eden-Monaro) outside Canberra.

In Victoria, polling shows big swings against the party. Already three seats are chalked up as losses (Corangamite, Deakin, LaTrobe).

Another bunch of seats could be at risk, but few have a good read on them yet. One seat being watched closely is Anthony Byrne's outer suburban seat of Holt. It is on a 14 per cent margin but was nearly lost in 2004.

The party will hold its two ACT seats (Fraser and Canberra).

South Australia is problematic. Five of the six seats there are in play, with Steve Georganas's western suburbs seat of Hindmarsh seen as lost.

Despite the strong campaigning skills of local MPs Kate Ellis (Adelaide), Nick Champion (Wakefield), Amanda Rishworth (Kingston) and Tony Zappia (Makin), some could fall.

Party figures are warning of big swings in the city (Adelaide) and northern suburbs (Wakefield).

In Western Australia, Stephen Smith has told colleagues he thinks he's gone in Perth. Few think Gary Gray can hold Brand. Only Melissa Parke (Fremantle) is judged as safe.

In the Northern Territory, Warren Snowdon (Lingiari) is unlikely to hold on.

In Tasmania, sources predict all four seats (Bass, Braddon, Franklin and Lyons) will be lost.

Drawing this together, Labor could be facing its worst result since the 30s, when Jim Scullin's Labor government collapsed and the party split and was decimated by voters.

In 1996, Keating secured 38.8 per cent of the primary vote. In 1975, Whitlam achieved 42.8 per cent.

In 1931, Scullin Labor won 27.1 per cent. Newspoll has Labor's primary vote at just 32 per cent.

The Nielsen poll has Labor's primary vote at 29 per cent.

In 1996, Labor lost 31 seats and won just 49 (or 33.1 per cent of the seats in parliament). In 1975, Labor lost 30 seats, reducing its representation to just 36 seats (or 28.4 per cent of seats). In 1931, federal Labor won 14 seats (Lang Labor won 4). This amounted to only 18.7 per cent of the seats in parliament.

If Labor's primary vote remains well below 38 per cent and the party wins only 40 seats - a loss of 32 - this will translate into the party holding just 27 per cent of the seats in parliament.

So if the worst fears of a range of senior Labor figures across Australia are realised, then the closest comparison will be Labor's 1931 annihilation, rather than the drubbings meted out by the voters in 1996 or 1975.

In other words, unless Labor's standing dramatically improves, Julia Gillard is set to lead Labor to its greatest defeat in more than 80 years. That will certainly be one for the record books.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/epic-election-rout-is-just-the-beginning-for-labor/story-fnbcok0h-1226634795876

[cherry*135]

Gary, singer for Rose Tattoo, will stand for the National Party for the seat of Throsby on the New South Wales south coast.

Gary lives outside the electorate in Sydney’s northern beaches.

The outspoken Gary opposes Muslim immigration, refugees and is anti-Carbon tax.

Sounds like a winner.

[froot_loopz]

South Australia is problematic. Five of the six seats there are in play, with Steve Georganas's western suburbs seat of Hindmarsh seen as lost.

Despite the strong campaigning skills of local MPs Kate Ellis (Adelaide), Nick Champion (Wakefield), Amanda Rishworth (Kingston) and Tony Zappia (Makin), some could fall.

Party figures are warning of big swings in the city (Adelaide) and northern suburbs (Wakefield).

I live in Nick Champions seat, he wont be getting my vote, he removes questions and comments he doesnt want to answer off his facebook page.


A lot of community based groups out this way are also saying that he is had to contact, he wont communicate with a lot of people, that alot are getting upset with him.


Ive met the local liberal candidate, and I like him. He's been involved in this area in sporting and business ventures for years.

[i-need-a-martini]

Lol at Cue. :^O

I think her post no.1 describes the opinion of almost everyone on this forum.

[silverfaun]

More than anything else that will sink the Labor party is the loss of border control. They have given up after they created it.

Thousands will arrive before sept 14th because they know that things will change then. Billions spent on this & we are asked to pay more taxes & levy's.

There's nothing Labor can do to avoid the precipice Gillard is blindly marching them all towards.