Has Labor won yet?

[donnashuggy]

Or isit too tight?

[chameleon54]

Turnbulls fate will depend on how he manages the factions within the party and how succesfull he is in negotiating with the senate.

I would agree with you that there are a couple of potential leaders in the Labour ( oops there I go again  ) party who could have quite a bit of electoral appeal. I have always thought that Penny Wong would make a great Labor leader and if elected would show how far Australia has come with inclusivness on several fronts. Tanya Plibersek can barely hide her ambitions and Albo has made no secret of his wish to warm the big chair.

To be honest, one of Turnbulls greatest assets is that there is not really anyone to replace him with.   Abbot is unelectable and other high profile members of the party would not really tick the boxes as Prime Minister. Just imagine Christopher Pyne in the role     

[the_great_she_elephant]

She el,.... Your suggestion that Bill Shorten would rather be spending the next few years in the political wilderness of opposition, rather than enjoying the spoils of majority government is wishful thinking. 

I don't think he imagines himself spending the next few years in the political wilderness. Given the tiny majority Turnbull will have and the political quagmire he will have to wade through in the senate, plus the disaffected Tonyites in his own party just waiting  for a chance to stab him in the back. I think Bill Shorten is hoping  the government will collapse like a house of cards within twelve months. If that does happen and we find ourselves back at  the polls this time next year, it would then take  only take a very small swing to Labor to see a change of government.

[chameleon54]

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@the_great_she_elephant wrote:

She el,.... Your suggestion that Bill Shorten would rather be spending the next few years in the political wilderness of opposition, rather than enjoying the spoils of majority government is wishful thinking. 

I don't think he imagines himself spending the next few years in the political wilderness. Given the tiny majority Turnbull will have and the political quagmire he will have to wade through in the senate, plus the disaffected Tonyites in his own party just waiting  for a chance to stab him in the back. I think Bill Shorten is hoping  the government will collapse like a house of cards within twelve months. If that does happen and we find ourselves back at  the polls this time next year, it would then take  only take a very small swing to Labor to see a change of government.

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Agreed this is a possible scenario, but again history would show that the odds are the Liberal government will serve its term. Not only does Turnbull have a majority in his own right, but several independants have indicated they will support the government on matters of confidence and supply. Most govenments with a slim majority serve their full term.

How effective the Liberals will be in enacting policy and negotiating with the senate remains to be seen.