Pandemic over soon ...

[rogespeed]

with another day another 30,000+ cases within NSW the pandemic will surely end soon as they run out of the unvaccinated or will Camberra run out of unvaccinated first ? 

Fortunately the South Africans were correct in evaluating Omicron as being highly infectious but relatively mild - almost effectively the fourth vaccine for those fated to contract 

[rogespeed]

re : You cannot calculate the current number of unvaccinated by running minus signs with the number of new daily cases and your estimate (incorrectly worked out) of those who are still not vaccinated.

Reply : 

Well accepting the mantra that the pandemic is a pandemic of the unvaxxx'ed

The active case status infections are for all intents restricted to the unvaxxxed 

So for ACT which has a very high vaxx uptake so is prime candidate State/territory for observing the defeat of the pandemic 

Approx POP  432,000 

unvaxx'ed  % = 0.3%  = 1296 people :  run out of unvaxxed candidates in 2 days 

unvaxxx'ed  % = 73.2% = c316,000 : run out of unvaxxxed candidates in less than a year at current status but obviously as more people get the third jab at c4000 per day .... 

Nett active cases now 5004 after reduction of 597 last 24 hours 

( active cases being the infected who are officially medically monitored ) 

All data sets being equal and consistent  within 10 days the end of pandemic 

Nett new cases = 1020 , new hospitalised = 1 (one) 

Well done viral loading reduction measures , well done individual health improvements , well done vaxxes , well done natural immune response , well done exposure to health inducing climate , well done outdoorsy lifestyles  , well done ambient high morale , well done high quality food , well done high quality water , well done high quality air  

[domino-710]

It is now a ' mantra ' - no longer - it seems - a ' decree '.

Sheesh - I really do try to keep up.

Müll

[janeababe]

….well done me for not opening a bottle of wine! 

…oh …. Wait! 😎

[countessalmirena]

rogespeeeeeeeeed!

I stretched out your username because I don't want to tear out my hair. It's looking particularly good at the moment and I don't want to end up bald.

Previous variants were not able to evade immune response, reinfect, be so easily passed on. The vaccines offered pretty good protection against infection and very good protection against reinfection.

Omicron... oh my sainted strawberries, Omicron is MUCH more able to evade immune response, MUCH MUCH more transmissible, and thus reinfecting people who previously recovered from COVID-19, infecting vaccinated people, and having itself a merry party infecting the unvaccinated.

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active case status infections are for all intents restricted to the unvaxxxed

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No. No, no, no. You're just playing with us now. You know this isn't true. Omicron has changed everything. Its mutations are just sheer craziness. Its infectiousness is so much higher than Delta that it's anticipated half of Europe will be infected within a couple of months... and that's in spite of reasonably high levels of vaccination.

The horrific effect of COVID-19 isn't only in the number of deaths, or the number of patients in ICU. I'll list just some of them, just quickly because I've got a meeting shortly.

• Long COVID - estimated to affect 30% or so of recovered cases
• Exhausted, overwhelmed health workers
• Exhausted single-use supplies for tests
• No RATs to be found in Australia (or extreme scarcity)
• Slow processing of PCR samples due to inability to test the samples using pooling (testing groups of 4); because so many are now coming back positive (about 30% positive rate, compared to previous rate of less than 1% positive) and that just means re-testing the majority of batches singly
• PCR test results blown out to ridiculous timeframes
• Huge numbers of essential workers furloughed in supply chain warehouses
• Huge numbers of truck drivers furloughed
• Huge numbers of process workers furloughed
• Huge number of pathologists furloughed
• No break for too many people in the medical fields
• Many paramedics furloughed, not enough ambulances, blown-out ambulance response times
• Hospital equipment not scaled up (insufficient money allocated in time to prepare for surge)
• Some health workers resigning because they just can't take any more of this sustained pressure
• Public transport reduced (because so many workers in public transport furloughed)
• People have been told only to queue up for PCR test in certain circumstances, which has a knock-on effect of discouraging quite a few people who SHOULD be getting PCR tests

I'll stop there. Meeting! ... which I hope will be short and sweet, which it will, because I'm chairing it and I'll stand no long-winded nonsense. Off with their heads...

[k1ooo-slr-sales]

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@rogespeed wrote:

re : You cannot calculate the current number of unvaccinated by running minus signs with the number of new daily cases and your estimate (incorrectly worked out) of those who are still not vaccinated.

Reply : 

Well accepting the mantra that the pandemic is a pandemic of the unvaxxx'ed

The active case status infections are for all intents restricted to the unvaxxxed 

So for ACT which has a very high vaxx uptake so is prime candidate State/territory for observing the defeat of the pandemic 

Approx POP  432,000 

unvaxx'ed  % = 0.3%  = 1296 people :  run out of unvaxxed candidates in 2 days 

unvaxxx'ed  % = 73.2% = c316,000 : run out of unvaxxxed candidates in less than a year at current status but obviously as more people get the third jab at c4000 per day .... 

Nett active cases now 5004 after reduction of 597 last 24 hours 

( active cases being the infected who are officially medically monitored ) 

All data sets being equal and consistent  within 10 days the end of pandemic 

Nett new cases = 1020 , new hospitalised = 1 (one) 

Well done viral loading reduction measures , well done individual health improvements , well done vaxxes , well done natural immune response , well done exposure to health inducing climate , well done outdoorsy lifestyles  , well done ambient high morale , well done high quality food , well done high quality water , well done high quality air  

---

I didn't read the part of your post that I put a line through because I stopped at the 100% FALSE assertion that:

"The active case status infections are for all intents restricted to the unvaxxxed"

I just assumed that you were laying the foundations for the remainder of your post . . . and if the foundations are flawed then so too is the rest!  So . . . pfffffttttt!

It has been posted often enough that vaccinated people can and do get the virus, especially the Omicron variant. I even heard at the PM's presser today that people can get reinfected with this Omicron variant.

This means that some of the active cases in the reported stats ARE vaccinated people.

Sheeesh, this ain't hard . . . why you posting these BS statements?  It looks like you are doing so to get an argument going.

[k1ooo-slr-sales]

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@rogespeed wrote:

All data sets being equal and consistent  within 10 days the end of pandemic 

---

okay, I went back and read the whole post.

The bit I have quoted above . . . big call . . . A REALLY BIG CALL!!!!!!!!

Are you going to stake your reputation on it?

We'll see on the 23rd January . . . you will be hailed as a visionary . . . or a fool. 

[springyzone]

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@k1ooo-slr-sales wrote:

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@rogespeed wrote:

All data sets being equal and consistent  within 10 days the end of pandemic 

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I must have missed it too.

The pandemic won't be over in 10 days, Roger.

What may happen by then is we may (in some states) pass the peak of new omicron infections.

That's all.

But the hospitalisations & deaths are often a week or two behind those peaks.

We are still some way from the end, I would guess, because a pandemic is worlwide, not just about what is happening in Australia.

I read that these things will help hasten the end. (bits in red are quotes)

1.  Having vaccines  more available world wide.

Infectious disease expert and pioneering scientific researcher Dr. Serhat Gumrukcu says, "Increasing production of and access to vaccines whole wide, especially to lower income countries, is essential to helping end the pandemic sooner rather than later.  The faster this can be done, the less susceptible we will be to other variants as they emerge and jeopardize the progress being made in the US and other countries.

2.  The development of vaccines/treatments that are better at dealing with variants.

Additionally, we urgently need to develop a treatment that's effective against all potential variants so that we can significantly reduce transmission rates. 

3. Numbers of new infections need to stabilise so they are more or less predictable (like flu) and don't put a major strain on the health system. We'll get closer to this once we have more and more people who develop some resistance, either because of vaccinations or having had omicron or both.

We're not there yet though, Roger. My guess is we have many months ahead of us yet.

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[rogespeed]

No a mad man - everyone listens to the crazy 

[rogespeed]

Has been declared a pandemic of the unvaxx'd , so logically the new cases are unvaxx'd subjects , so there being a limited number of unvaxxe'd hose number is being reduced every day because of the new cases - so is a time whereby there is no more unvaxx'd  ( to become new cases ) , so no more new cases , unless they decide to vaxx embryos 

[rogespeed]

Then is not a pandemic of the unvaxx'd - is a pandemic of some other aspect of the contagion

Carefully note ACT  reports , and maybe cross reference with WA