The smart money on Abbott to win Lodge

[nero_bolt]

A SWAG of federal Labor seats would fall in NSW at the upcoming election, putting Tony Abbott into office with a comfortable margin.

That is the conclusion of analysts at gaming firm Sportsbet, which has just released its 2013 election odds - seat-by-seat.

Forget the opinion polls, it is often said that if you want to assess the true political situation ahead of an election, ask a bookmaker.

And the odds put out by Sportsbet on the 150 seats in the house of representatives would lead to 91 seats to Tony Abbott's Coalition and 54 to Labor - down from its current 72 - with three electorates "too close to call".

Of the 19 seats Mr Abbott is tipped to pick up, 11 are in NSW, showing how the ICAC and the HSU scandal is expected to impact here.

But the prediction is that few ministers will lose their seats, with Treasurer Wayne Swan - who survives in Lilley by just a 3 per cent margin - the narrow favourite at $1.85 to hang on to his seat.

In Sydney, betting predictions are that assistant treasurer David Bradbury is odds on to lose in Lindsay, paying $3.50, and other seats set to fall would include Parramatta, Reid, Banks, Greenway, Robertson and Dobell

Another seat Labor is predicted to lose is Page on the far north coast.

Schools Minister Peter Garrett is tipped to hang on in Kingsford Smith, despite having only a 5 per cent margin, but Mike Kelly is odds on to lose his bellwether seat of Eden Monaro.

In the overall election winner market, the Coalition are the $1.35 favourites, with Labor the $3.30 outsiders.

Three in every four bets taken since betting opened after the 2010 federal election have been for the Coalition, a Sportsbet spokesman said.

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/the-smart-money-on-abbott-to-win-lodge/story-e6freuy9-1226563760009

[catsnknots]

um... she introduced the CO2 tax... 

where did I say she caused the flood????? 

you guys twist more than those tornados that hit my town.... 

[lakeland27]

umm.. she had the courage to introduce the carbon tax. it was Howard/ nelson/ turnbull and abbott policy before that.

[donnashuggy]

Howard won because of border protection policy, Beazley would have won easy otherwise, if Abbott wins it will be for the same reason, people believe he can stop the boats.

[cueperkins]

War=Refugees....NOBODY can stop the boats until they're willing to stop the blinkin wars. It's just feeding on peoples fear and prejudice to think anyone can or should & that's just plain wrong.

The only Pollie who ever had the solution was Fraser..... & Whitlam didn't fight him on it.  At least they had 'bipartisan' gonads in those days & stood their ground on humanitarian issues which should NEVER be politicised for election points.  Abbott could have learned a lot from a true statesman of his time like Fraser..  For that matter Julia could take some pointers from Whitlam....they know the solution & both know you can't stop the boats in a time of war.   JMO

If Fraser was in the LNP today, he'd have been ousted like Turnbull - no wonder he resigned from the LNP in disgust in 2010 over it.

[lakeland27]

thats right (far right) cueperkins the libs of today are not the party they once were.

it reminds me of reagans son saying his father wouldn't get anywhere near the leadership pf the loony republican party of today.. not conservative enough .

[donnashuggy]

It doesn't change the facts that there are a lot of dumb people out there that will vote heavily in favour of abbott and his misleading lies on border protection.

[cueperkins]

My god Lakeland, absolutely, lol...."A conservative is one who believes in doing nothing for the first time".   That sounds a bit like stagnation to me.

Run away, Run Away.

Give me change every day of the week, because status quo equates to keeping the majority hoodwinked, while the minority of rich & powerful, get more rich & powerful.  Crikey, we're a coal rich country and we pay thru the nose for electricity?  Seriously?  Talk about BOHICA = Bend Over Here It Comes Again.  

If only we had a political integrity commission like ICAC for pollies eh?   We could name it in memory of Don Chipp with a big sign out front saying 'Keeping the barstools honest".

i.e. Make election promises (Like O'Farrelliar's BS contract with NSW) and break 'em by the truckload?...then you're out.  If only eh?

[cueperkins]

But..Fraser was one of the only Liberals who did something that didn't resemble Lib policy at the time, so he stands out. 

Just imagine if,, we owned our own mineral resources and sold them to the world as an Aussie Commodity? (As Whitlam dreamed before the Libs ankle tapped him).  I think the turning point in Australia's way of life was at that very point my friend.   We could have had it all, & now somebody else owns our mineral wealth in return for bag of beads = a few jobs. Some things never change.   Even now, under another ALP Govt...the Mining tax is a total joke...I'm sure you'd have to agree.

[catsnknots]

golly gosh... what an intellectually bereft conversation this has become. 

[lakeland27]

But..Fraser was one of the only Liberals who did something that didn't resemble Lib policy at the time, so he stands out. 

Just imagine if,, we owned our own mineral resources and sold them to the world as an Aussie Commodity? (As Whitlam dreamed before the Libs ankle tapped him).  I think the turning point in Australia's way of life was at that very point my friend.   We could have had it all, & now somebody else owns our mineral wealth in return for bag of beads = a few jobs. Some things never change.   Even now, under another ALP Govt...the Mining tax is a total joke...I'm sure you'd have to agree.

the Rudd version of the tax was better. . the current tax is a 'super profits tax' and by re-investing the big miners have avoided paying it for the most part. it could be seen as a failure, but it did force them to put more money back into the businesses and send less offshore.. in that way it's a success.. personally i'd prefer the money in treasury.