Autralian hospitals

[*kazumi*]

I heard on TV the other day that hospitals are gearing up for the pandemic and are not seeing people for selective surgeries etc.  I was in the next room, so I was not sure if I misunderstood, and have not been able to find more about it.  Anybody heard anything?  I suppose to see a surgeon about my knee operation in couple of weeks. 

I will try to call them on Monday, but it is not easy to get through in the best of times.

[*kazumi*]

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@brerrabbit585 wrote:
You and I seem to be the only one doing the maths. A lot of others seem more interested in spreading panic.

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Your math is badly flawed.  The Chinese immediately closed down whole cities.  They built 2 brand new hospitals for couple of thousand people.  They instructed everybody to stay inside, anybody who had an elevated temperature was taken to quarantine station to be tested.  Didn't you see the footage of streets totally deserted?  People were locked in their flats and main entrance welded so they could not go out. 

So they managed to control the outbreak after couple of months, BUT reduction in new cases does not mean it is the end of pandemic.. 

On the other hand we only just started to check people's temperature at the airport!  There is no way Australians will put up with draconian precautions.  America did nothing much until just very recently, they do not have enough tests, and it is expected that there are lot of people undiagnosed, and most of the imported cases here come from the USA.  Yet we have no restrictions for people coming from America.  The home quarantine is a joke; they still have to get there; some will take taxi or bus.  And we are still free to travel around.

How can you possibly compare? 

[*kazumi*]

Anybody who thinks it is all a beat up, he is something for you

https://twitter.com/i/status/1239268990159073280

[brerrabbit585]

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@*kazumi* wrote:

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@brerrabbit585 wrote:
You and I seem to be the only one doing the maths. A lot of others seem more interested in spreading panic.

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Your math is badly flawed.  The Chinese immediately closed down whole cities.  They built 2 brand new hospitals for couple of thousand people.  They instructed everybody to stay inside, anybody who had an elevated temperature was taken to quarantine station to be tested.  Didn't you see the footage of streets totally deserted?  People were locked in their flats and main entrance welded so they could not go out. 

So they managed to control the outbreak after couple of months, BUT reduction in new cases does not mean it is the end of pandemic.. 

On the other hand we only just started to check people's temperature at the airport!  There is no way Australians will put up with draconian precautions.  America did nothing much until just very recently, they do not have enough tests, and it is expected that there are lot of people undiagnosed, and most of the imported cases here come from the USA.  Yet we have no restrictions for people coming from America.  The home quarantine is a joke; they still have to get there; some will take taxi or bus.  And we are still free to travel around.

How can you possibly compare? 

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China didn't close anything down immediately.  They covered it up until it got bad enough that they couldn't hide it any more, and even then they didn't immediately shut things down.  The bulk of their deaths were from early on - from people who caught it when people were still moving about freely.

If you think Australians won't put up with draconian measures, do you think people are going to want to venture out once it gets as bad as it was in China when they first shut things down?  When it gets to a certain point the govt won't have to tell most people to stay at home, they'll want to do it anyway.  Yes, there'll be a few selfish idiots who won't care who they pass it onto but most people will be too afraid of catching it themselves to want to go out more than they have to.  All it'll take is one case in a town and everyone will be looking sideways at everyone else.

[chameleon54]

Two confirmed cases in our town in the last 24 hours. All sports clubs have shut down and the local bakery said it was the quietest day they had experienced since opening 3 years ago. The supermarkets are still getting trashed though. The local Woolies looked like something out of a Russian movie when I went in there today.

[martinw-48]

Cham, was everyone wearing a big fur hat with an AK-47

[domino-710]

I suppose it is time - to call those retired nurses & medicos in.

[chameleon54]

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@martinw-48 wrote:
Cham, was everyone wearing a big fur hat with an AK-47

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Only the senior citz who where scooping all of the tins of baked beans into their trollies.

[myoclon1cjerk]

"How many cases are you expecting? China has had 81,000 cases (that have been reported). Our population is .0018% of theirs so if we get the same number of cases per head of population we can expect to have 1,460 cases. A lot of those who get it don't even feel sick and the ones who do get sick aren't going to all need ventilators and they're not going to all get sick at the same time, therefore 2,000 respirators is plenty - unless they're needed for other things"

You can't compare China with us. Firstly, the bulk of China's cases were in Wuhan which was locked down thus preventing the virus becoming more widespread. Our cases cover the entire continent. Spain's population is roughly twice ours. They have in excess of 11,000 cases and they're rising exponentially.
If just 10% of our population gets infected and the mortality rate is 2%, that's 50,000 deaths.

https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2020/03/17/australia-coronavirus-death-toll-could-hit-50000/

[*kazumi*]

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@brerrabbit585 wrote:

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@*kazumi*

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China didn't close anything down immediately.  They covered it up until it got bad enough that they couldn't hide it any more, and even then they didn't immediately shut things down.  The bulk of their deaths were from early on - from people who caught it when people were still moving about freely.

If you think Australians won't put up with draconian measures, do you think people are going to want to venture out once it gets as bad as it was in China when they first shut things down?  When it gets to a certain point the govt won't have to tell most people to stay at home, they'll want to do it anyway.  Yes, there'll be a few selfish idiots who won't care who they pass it onto but most people will be too afraid of catching it themselves to want to go out more than they have to.  All it'll take is one case in a town and everyone will be looking sideways at everyone else.

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Yes, some doctors in China tried to warn back in December that they have some unusual cases of pneumonia, which could cause epidemic and were ignored.  But the government started to take extremely serious steps in January.  Our government knows what the score is, and is still allowing people arriving from the USA, which has been the source of most of our foreign infections in the past few weeks.  Everybody knows that the American statistics are totally unreliable because in many areas they do not have test kits to test people who are very ill and exhibiting all the symptoms; it is estimated that there is 10x plus more actual cases.  Did you see the people flooding airport corridors waiting for 4+ hours to be cleared after arriving from Europe?
Here we allow people to come and self quarantine;  how many will not stay put for the 2 weeks?  Yes, if they go to work they may get reported, but in the big cities, if they go to the shop nobody will have any idea.  Funny, people from China were sent to Christmas Island for 2 weeks, why should people coming now from seriously infected countries be allowed to come straight in?  They still need to get home from the airport.  And there are still people who claim it's all beat up; they will NOT follow the rules.

[*kazumi*]

This is why waiting until things get worse is a bad idea:

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-undiagnosed-spread.html?utm_source=Selligent&utm_medium=emai...