Déjà vu in Melbourne? Please let it not escalate.

[countessalmirena]

We don't know yet exactly what sort of lockdown it will be.

We don't know yet exactly how severe it will be, what things will be further restricted.

We don't know yet exactly how long the lockdown will be imposed.

But we know that there will be a lockdown.

I'm so disheartened by the fact that this was preventable. What possessed case number 5 (the case who contracted COVID-19 from the Wollert cluster (via a missing link, probably?) to ignore his symptoms for more than 4 days? What possessed him to go out and about while symptomatic? Was he wearing a mask? (I'll take a wild stab at it and say no, he probably wasn't.) Was he socially distancing? (Clearly not.)

Taken in conjunction with the general complacency and vaccine reluctance, the discarding of masks in public transport, the lack of enforcement (with police chiefs being - in my view - a bit ridiculous in scoffing at the task of enforcing health directives), the surging together of people  much closer than 1.5 metres when we know - surely we call know! - that this pandemic is far from over, and the number of people who are shaking hands and kissing and hugging... it's making my heart sink like a concrete boot.

I skipped wearing a mask twice recently, I admit. I had it with me, but I popped into the bank and thought it would be a good idea not to obscure my face for security reasons. I also went to a supermarket for one item, late at night just before it closed. It was not wise. Oh! And one more time... at the Melbourne Recital Centre while enjoying a fabulous concert. Every other time, yes, I've masked up. But now I feel foolish, and I won't be making any exceptions.

Stupid-decision-making people could be walking around in any part of Melbourne or indeed Victoria, refusing to be tested, brushing off their symptoms, scoffing at the notion of wearing a mask or sanitising their hands.

And more political point-scoring is being launched as well. I've no patience for it; we need to be working together to resolve these problems, and stamp out this outbreak. Ironically it is because we as a country have been doing so well that the complacent behaviour has crept back.

Fellow Melbournians and Victorians, we just have to be strong, and let's do our best to reiterate that the hygiene behaviours (    and unfortunately now (probably) as well) MUST be followed until Australia has achieved herd immunity - and even after that, we should at the very least maintain hand hygiene and cough etiquette.

Let's try to lead the world into effective long-term behaviour change.

And God help us all as we enter into whatever lockdown hell lies before us. *virtual hug* - because that's the only sort I can give you.

[springyzone]

Where are they going to fly to, though? Melbourne isn't going to be much better and that would be the biggest centre for medical care outside of Sydney.

Maybe we need to have some covid free hospitals where staff definitely only work there and no other hospitals, where elective surgery can go on as normal. I don't see that it should all be cancelled, not if patients can be covid tested first.

[countessalmirena]

Medical resources are stretched to the nth degree.

Every time that there’s an outbreak or case possibly affecting one health/medical worker, hundreds of them have to isolate. That means doctors and nurses out of commission for at least 2 weeks. Staff need to be brought in from elsewhere to cover the shifts; that means fewer per patient to cover elsewhere… and that means some surgeries can’t go ahead… It also means additional stress upon already stressed doctors and nurses and pathologists. In those circumstances the likelihood of errors is increased.

The likelihood of an additional breach increases in those circumstances, which sets into motion a cycle of diminishing returns.

The hospital system in NSW is severely under the pump. They’re coping but it won’t take much to tip the balance.

Interstate medical resources could help but at the expense of preparedness for what each state has put in place for their own response. Australia has an unequal distribution of qualified medical staff anyway; in SA and WA, ambulance ramping illustrates just how bad it is. Add Delta into the mix and we’re truly looking at a potential firestorm.

For the future, we need more medical staff. That’s a long-term goal.

For now, we need public health compliance; we need people staying at home; we need everyone getting vaccinated if they can be vaccinated; we need no protest marches; we need mask-wearing; we need continuing research and studies and testing for every possible intervention to treat, ameliorate, prevent and cure COVID-19.

[papermoon.lady]

😣😣😣

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/thousands-of-police-deployed-in-sydney-to-b...

[springyzone]

I have thought for a long time (well before covid) that medical qualifications have been artificially restricted, more than they needed to be.

Medicine and law are both areas it is very hard to get into and it isn't just because they are difficult disciplines, it is, to a fair extent, so that there won't be an oversupply. It's income protection.

There is also the matter of training, there need to be adequate staff to properly train these people but with so much work done on computers these days, I suspect they could take on a few more potential doctors than they do.

There is no particular reason that a student with a score of eg 97% could not make as good a doctor as someone on 99.8%

Rural and outer suburbs suffer the most from a shortage of doctors. From what I have read, it is almost impossible in some country towns to become a new patient with any local doctor.

Maybe when the covid crisis settles down a  little, these are factors the authorities could look at.

[chameleon54]

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@countessalmirena wrote:

Medical resources are stretched to the nth degree.

Every time that there’s an outbreak or case possibly affecting one health/medical worker, hundreds of them have to isolate. That means doctors and nurses out of commission for at least 2 weeks. Staff need to be brought in from elsewhere to cover the shifts; that means fewer per patient to cover elsewhere… and that means some surgeries can’t go ahead… It also means additional stress upon already stressed doctors and nurses and pathologists. In those circumstances the likelihood of errors is increased.

The likelihood of an additional breach increases in those circumstances, which sets into motion a cycle of diminishing returns.

The hospital system in NSW is severely under the pump. They’re coping but it won’t take much to tip the balance.

Interstate medical resources could help but at the expense of preparedness for what each state has put in place for their own response. Australia has an unequal distribution of qualified medical staff anyway; in SA and WA, ambulance ramping illustrates just how bad it is. Add Delta into the mix and we’re truly looking at a potential firestorm.

For the future, we need more medical staff. That’s a long-term goal.

For now, we need public health compliance; we need people staying at home; we need everyone getting vaccinated if they can be vaccinated; we need no protest marches; we need mask-wearing; we need continuing research and studies and testing for every possible intervention to treat, ameliorate, prevent and cure COVID-19.

---

South Australia's ramping problems are not caused by a lack of medical staff, they are caused by a lack of emergency hospital beds. The previous Labor government undertook a major revamp of our health services which they named " transforming health ". What it really involved was completely closing or downgrading a number of hospitals in order to pay for their new QE2, hospital which at the time was the most expensive IN THE WORLD per hospital bed. ( and may well still be )

The current Liberal government inherited a hospital system that had been completely gutted. They have successfully re-opened one of the largest hospitals, closed by Labor ( the Repat ) and only today announced plans to further enlarge and extend this facility to try to get some of the emergency beds, removed by Labor, back into the system.

Yes there are major problems in the South Australian health system, but the Liberals have been successful in making some inroads into restoring the damage wreaked by the previous Labor government.

The gross incompetence and reckless disregard Labor showed for the health of SA residents, by trashing our hospital system is going to take the Liberals much longer than one term in office to overcome and restore.

[countessalmirena]

Hospital beds and emergency resources are part of the problem, I agree.

There will still be a need for more staff. I hope that SA will bring back every resource needed, and I am looking forward to seeing that happen.

In Victoria, some hospitals have excellent administrative systems and staff in place, while the doctors (and nurses) themselves are not of the very highest quality. I call to mind one particular hospital, whose name I won't post - but it's a hospital where a simple carpal tunnel surgery resulted in hand infection from procedures improperly followed, and the worst example of stitches that I have ever seen. (Knotty and crooked like a child's first attempt at sewing a sampler.) In that same hospital, an individual was informed in my presence that his risk of a certain condition metamorphising into something nasty wasn't a big deal because "You've had enough of a life already". I reported that doctor, and I only regret that his arrogance and insensitivity didn't earn him more than a verbal reprimand.

In other hospitals, the administrative side may be lacking somewhat but the standard of medical care is superb. I won't name that hospital either, because I have one caveat that will haunt me to the rest of my days with regard to it, and I will probably never know if the underlying question will ever be answered.

For best standard of all, both The Alfred and St Vincent's in Melbourne provide superlative treatment and are very well organised. The staffing levels are good; communication between various departments are good; patient care and outcomes are very good.

You definitely don't want gross incompetence by politicians tearing down health support. This pandemic has illustrated just how pivotal health care is, and I hope we see significant investment in that, because this isn't going to be the last pandemic in our lifetime (in my view).

[chameleon54]

If you want to know why sleepy little South Australia's health services are in tatters read this......

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-24/new-royal-adelaide-hospital-all-you-need-to-know/8206416 

The most expensive building in Australia...............ever............. The third most expensive building IN THE WORLD ...........ever ..........and the most expensive hospital per patient built ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD !!!..............ever

And this for a state with a population of approx 1.8 million people.

Forget Trump, We had Labor !

If you ever wanted to see a perfect example of Labors flagrant disregard for economic common sense and responsible use of taxpayers resources this is it !

Naturally Labor decimated our health service in other areas in order to try to pay for this monolith and as always its left to the Liberals to come in and try to clean up Labors mess.