Tony Abbott is fighting to protect his leadership against a fresh coup that is brewing from within his frontbench.
Multiple sources have told AFR Weekend that the plan is to mount another leadership challenge regardless of the outcome of next week's by-election in the Western Australian seat of Canning.
Malcolm Turnbull is, at the moment, the likely leadership rival should there be a push, while Julie Bishop would stay as deputy. Some members of the Right, who could not previously abide Mr Turnbull, confided that they could now vote for him.
"There's no alternative," said a source.
Social Services Minister Scott Morrison is said to be sticking by Mr Abbott but would benefit from a change, most likely by becoming Treasurer.
"Everything changes if the top changes," said one powerbroker. He added that the move this time was "not about Mr Morrison" insofar as he was not being lined up for a leadership role.
Mr Abbott publicly confronted the issue on Friday after The Daily Telegraph reported he was under pressure to bring forward a reshuffle of his ministry, scheduled for Christmas, to head off the push.
The publication of a list of ministers supposedly to be targeted for demotion sparked an internal round of hostilities and finger-pointing as to who was behind it.
Mr Abbott rang ministers on the hit list, including one of his top performers Trade Minister Andrew Robb, to assure them the list did not come from the Prime Minister or his office. Some ministers rang Mr Abbott or his office first to seek clarification.
Others on the list like Eric Abetz and Kevin Andrews are part of Mr Abbott's Praetorian Guard and are protecting the PM.
One minister called the list published in The Daily Telegraph "the most Machiavellian act ever perpetrated".
"This is a **bleep** of an act. We've had the best week we've had all year," he said, in reference to the well received decision to accept 12,000 Syrian refugees.
Mr Abbott, who heads to the Western Australian seat of Canning this weekend to campaign ahead of next Saturday's critical by-election, said the report was "wrong".
"Reports of end-of-year reshuffles are absolutely a dime a dozen," he said.
Mr Abbott is believed to still have the numbers to protect him against a challenge but one MP keen on a change said "things are moving pretty fast".
Another said there was definitely movement but little co-ordination and he feared the renewed unrest could be devastating for the government in Canning.
"There's a lot of chatter among the frontbench but it's not clear where this is landing.
"That's the worst of both worlds. The government suffers from the chatter."
The government suffered a modest setback in Canning on Friday when the Liberal Democratic Party, led by Senator David Leyonhjelm, announced it would direct its preferences away from the Liberal Party in response to an ongoing legal dispute with the Liberals and to protest some policy decisions.
The government is expecting a strong swing against it in Canning and Mr Abbott is conscious he needs a respectable result to keep the wolves at bay. One theory circulating on Friday was that the reshuffle story had been leaked to blow up the government in Canning and ensure Mr Abbott's ouster.
Treasurer Joe Hockey was drawn into the firing line when 2GB radio host Ray Hadley, a supporter of the government and who has a good relationship with Mr Morrison, suggested to Mr Hockey during a live interview that he should resign for the good of the government and Mr Abbott.
"If [Mr Abbott] says, 'Look, Joe we're moving into election cycle, it's next year and you're one of my best mates, you're a great bloke, I think you're a great Treasurer, but we just might have to move things, we might have to put you somewhere else', would you take one for the team without bluing or screaming?"
Mr Hockey dismissed the suggestion.
The government's day further soured when Mr Abbott and Mr Dutton, while posing for a photo opportunity, were caught on camera joking about the effect of climate change swamping Pacific islands. Mr Morrison, standing beside them, warned them about the boom microphone overhead as Mr Abbott and Mr Dutton chuckled at the joke.
In February, Mr Abbott survived a motion to spill the leadership by 61 votes to 39. After what he described as that near-death experience, he asked his team to give him six months to turn the ship around.
But despite a brief surge in the wake of the May budget, the government has been pretty much lagging Labor by 54 per cent to 46 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis.
One frontbencher told AFR Weekend that he believed it was a matter of if, not when, the leadership would again be confronted.
"It's like the election," he said. "There will be one, we just don't know when."
Labor privately fears a switch to Mr Turnbull with Mr Morrison as Treasurer, believing they would be much harder to beat.
