WIPE OUT TIME for LABOR
The polls are getting worse and worse
Labor plummets to 46-54 - and it could get much worse
So far Labor’s overall poll support has been relatively good under Kevin Rudd. The real problem has been in the marginal seats, where the Coalition has been much stronger.
But now Labor’s national vote is falling too, as the Rudd’s sugar hit fades fast:
VOTER support for Kevin Rudd has sunk to its lowest level on record, leaving Labor headed for a large election loss with Tony Abbott now virtually equal as preferred prime minister…
Labor’s primary vote, at 34 per cent, is now at its lowest level since Mr Rudd removed Julia Gillard as prime minister and the Coalition’s primary vote of 47 per cent is at its highest during the same time.
Primary support for the Greens dropped from 11 per cent to 9 per cent…
On a two-party-preferred basis, based on preference flows at the 2010 election, Labor’s support has dropped two percentage points, to 46 per cent, and the Coalition’s support has r....
And I think it could get even worse for Labor over the next three weeks. Nothing in Rudd’s campaign suggests he has any petrol left. He has no more fresh policies, he has outstayed his welcome, his energy is down and Abbott has turned Labor’s fear campaign against it, characterising it correctly and successfully as desperation.
This could become a complete disaster.
Rudd is a man whose success has been built on portraying him as sunny, confident and completely on top of all the details. But now the screen has been pulled to reveal the real Wizard of Aus - frazzled, uncertain and rabbiting on about what he barely knows what while standing on a smoking ruin.
My tip: Abbott to win a majority of 30. That means Rudd’s return would have saved Labor maybe a dozen seats, making it worth the gamble - just.
But two things: Rudd was shockingly underprepared for a return he plotted for over three years. Even I’ve been surprised and his supporters must be shocked. Where are the policies? Where is this “new” Rudd they were promised?
Second, Rudd has - as I warned three weeks ago - actually made it harder for Labor to win the election after this one.
He’s trashed any moral standing the party still had over boat people and climate change in particular by proposing a harsh (if unworkable) PNG solution and promising (albeit falsely) to “terminate” the carbon tax.
And a caveat: three weeks of campaigning could of course make my prediction look too hasty. But it’s more likely that Labor will perform worse than there is that it will perform better. It will get more desperate, and probably more divided.
Rudd does not seem healthy and is campaigning particularly badly. Many voters now still backing Labor had under Julia Gillard decided to vote Liberal - and may be easy to shift back to their earlier decision.
and the odds are getting worse and worse
Coalition $1.10 $1.09 $1.10
Labor $7.0 $7.25 $7.00
