Hi. Could some-one give me some advice on this item I sold.

[daffodilau]

Hello.

This is the first time I have posted a question so if I say something wrong please forgive me. I sold a large number of 44 woolworths dominoes item number is 161643065546 and it finished on the 28th March. They were posted with only $4.50 postage to the buyer I paid the extra for the postage so I could have tracking and hopefully not have another item go missing. They were packed safely in a bubble mailer and were perfectly sealed as I do not have anyone interested in collecting them and there was also an extra one I put in for the buyer. I have just received a message from the buyer telling me that half of them have been opened and there was a lot doubles as well. I would suggest that the buyer opened them and decided he did not want to keep them so now he wants to have his money back. Does any-one have any idea how I should approach the buyer in my message to him and how I should resolve it . He is obviously going to be difficult to deal with judging by his abrupt message to me. Thankyou for any-one who can give me some advise.

[misspickysbooks]

I have a degree in Accountancy, but don't care to do the math off the top of my head! I had all the picture face tiles as of the Thurs before Easter. This involved a combined effort of 10 people swapping unwanteds with each other to form a full set. I'd estimate I've opened around the 120 mark myself, getting many doubles & sometimes 4 of 1 character.

At one time my Mum got 11 from a nice checkout chick. I needed 8 to finish the set, at that point, I got 2 that I needed, & 4 of the same tile, plus others I already had.

The distribution is random. Statistcs was never my strong suit at Uni, but the odds aren't good on completing the set without swapping.

[englishrosegardens]

You've got 1 chance in 44 of getting the exact domino you want, but if you're missing 6 dominoes and any one of them will do, you've got 6 chances out of 44 to get one you need.  But you could have hundreds of dominoes and still not get the one/s you need.

I forget the maths but there's a LOT of difference between possibilities and probabilities.  I remember when tattslotto first started I worked out the probability of winning and it was one in many millions, if not billions.  I think they only had 40 numbers then so the likelihood of winning now is even less than it was back then.  I was at school at the time so it was a loooong time ago and I haven't needed to use that sort of maths since.

[joethenuts]

i would say in the 1000s without swapping

[digital*ghost]

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@joethenuts wrote:

 i would say you would need at least 200 random ones to geta full set  in fact if someone could do the maths 

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The maths would be impossible (even with even distribution throughout stores) without knowing some of the most important factors - eg how many in total were printed, including of each different domino.

Just as an example, if there were 1000 in total printed, and there were 50 of one and only 5 of a different one, the number you would likely need to amass to try and get a full set would increase, and the chances of getting the rarer one would be much lower. i.e. with those numbers I mentioned, you'd have a 1 in 200 shot at getting the rare one, while a 1 in 20 shot at getting the common one. 

[joethenuts]

hI  because there is no prizes involed ala mcdonalds and there was always a rare one to get , so in this case if an equal amount of each 44 tiles were made ,and there would of been millions of them. mathematicly as they come random to you aprox how many would be an average figure, you would have to open up to get 44 different tiles ,they are numbered 1 to 44 , the best case would be 44 ,which would be imposible , can anybody do the maths. what are the odds

[davewil1964]

1/44 x 2/44 x 3/44.... 43/44. Assuming even distribution.

Shorter way of writing it - 43!/44 to the power of 43

[joethenuts]

close enough to 2000  then

[kopenhagen5]

misread it, never mind.

[i-love-my-sheep]

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@joethenuts wrote:

hI  because there is no prizes involed ala mcdonalds and there was always a rare one to get , so in this case if an equal amount of each 44 tiles were made ,and there would of been millions of them. mathematicly as they come random to you aprox how many would be an average figure, you would have to open up to get 44 different tiles ,they are numbered 1 to 44 , the best case would be 44 ,which would be imposible , can anybody do the maths. what are the odds

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Why don't you work it out Joe, you seem to be the expert on everything.

[joethenuts]

excuse me sheep lady ,i am asking a question instead of wasting your time answere the question , if i new the answere i would be be asking ,