24-02-2015 03:46 PM - edited 24-02-2015 03:49 PM
Why is Bureau of Met manipulating data re Cyclone Marcia ?
They said it was a Cat 5 cyclone, yet all the wind speeds, sustained and gusts show that it was only a Cat 3.
In addition, the pressure level never got down to a Cat 5.
And regardless of the better building codes compared to Darwin/Tracy in 1974, the damage was no where near a Cat 5.
For a start, the trees still had leaves on them. In all the Cat 5 cyclones in the last 30 years, no trees had leaves
left on them.
In addition, "Data for Middle Percy Island has disappeared from the BOM site, but Jennifer Marohasy kept a copy.
(I’m sure the BOM will be grateful!)..."
Have a read of this.
IN ADDITION
It seems some of the media outlets wewre dissapointed that the damage wasn't worse. That was the impression I got.
Almost like Disaster porn.
Any comments ?
on 25-02-2015 02:45 PM
Remember, the first rule of the global warming hysterics - if actual real world met readings disagree with your computer models then the real world readings should be either be ignored or 'adjusted' until they match the computer models..
Cyclone Marcia was a Cat 5 based on Computer modelling.
on 25-02-2015 03:05 PM
@vicr3000 wrote:
Did they ever say that we would get two cyclones at once ?
Nothing unusual about two cyclones at once.
on 25-02-2015 03:05 PM
So, when is BOM & the HRC getting shut down? And the ABC, and all Fairfax newspapers etc....
on 25-02-2015 05:24 PM
Where is the enquiry into the BOM? I must have missed the answer.
Still can't find any information that confirms the BOM tampered with data about the cyclones either.
Improving Australia’s climate record
Australian Climate Observations Reference Network – Surface Air Temperature (ACORN-SAT)
The Bureau of Meteorology has released an updated and improved Australian temperature dataset. Known as the Australian Climate Observations Reference Network – Surface Air Temperature (ACORN-SAT) the new dataset has been developed specifically to monitor climate variability and change in Australia.
The ACORN-SAT dataset employs the latest analysis techniques and takes advantage of newly digitised observational data to provide a daily record of Australian temperatures over the last 100 years. It is the world’s first continent-wide daily temperature record of its kind.
This dataset will enable climate researchers to better understand long-term changes in monthly and seasonal climate, as well as changes in day-to-day weather—such as the frequency of heat and cold extremes. The dataset is available from the Bureau’s website www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/acorn-sat
A short history of Australian observational records
The history of instrumental weather observations in Australia stretches back to European settlement. Within months of the arrival of the First Fleet, Australia’s first ‘meteorologist’, Lieutenant William Dawes, set up an astronomical observatory and commenced recording weather observations. Over the next century, amateur and official meteorologists continued taking observations in settlements dotted around the continent, providing documentary evidence of climate variability in Australia.
Unfortunately for modern-day scientists, there was no common standard for observing equipment during the colonial period. Any number of instrument configurations were used, including—perhaps iconically—thermometers housed in beer crates on outback verandas. By 1910, however, the newly formed Australian Bureau of Meteorology had established standardised equipment in many parts of the country. Over the past century, the Bureau has expanded, developed and advanced its network of observing sites.
In 2011, the Bureau had 774 temperature recording sites and nearly 6000 rain gauges operating across Australia.
Creating the modern record
Creating a modern Australian temperature record from the high volumes of data collected takes a lot of work.
Some of the work requires digitising records from last century—manual data entry from paper-based records to electronic databases. Other tasks require a great deal of scientific knowledge, such as understanding the impact of technology changes on the consistency of the data over time. Climate records, like this one from September 1887, are archived by the Bureau of Meteorology
on 25-02-2015 05:55 PM
@vicr3000 wrote:
Cyclone Marcia was a Cat 5 based on Computer modelling.
Such predictions are made for the purpose of warning, and therefore need to err on the side of caution.
Actually, weather forecast is reasonably accurate most of the time. Of-course, it is not spot on for every place. The BOM never claims that something "will happen", they say it is a "probability" or "possibility". As far as forecast of the possibility of bad fire season; well, we were lucky, but people in Adelaide & WA would not agree with you that it was not. The reason people did not die this summer (at least i do not think anybody died) was because people did not stay when the fire approached. But houses were destroyed and many animals died.
on 25-02-2015 06:02 PM
on 25-02-2015 07:14 PM
I have been trying to find data, that supports that Cyclone Marcia was a Cat 5 at some stage.
I can only find info that supports a very weak Cat 3 if that.
25-02-2015 07:28 PM - edited 25-02-2015 07:29 PM
on 25-02-2015 07:32 PM
on 25-02-2015 07:39 PM